Many people will be traveling during Thanksgiving week to join family for this special time. I am one of those who will travel…I will be in Texas to visit my Mom and family. I look forward to being with her and it will bring joy to my heart to see her. I will be a very grateful person on Thanksgiving Day, both for my family in Texas and for dear friends on the KC blogs.
Because I may not have time over the weekend to share my Monday Moments with you, I am posting it now. I hope that you and your loved ones will have a thankful Thanksgiving!
“Thanksgiving Seeds”
Thanksgiving is like a seed that is planted in the ground and produces a bountiful harvest. When we sow seeds of thanksgiving, it will produce good things in our lives. We will reap a harvest of joy, contentment and compassion.
The most joyful people are the thankful ones. God’s gift to the thankful is joy. Are you sad? Find something for which to thank Him. Are you discouraged? Consider times of encouragement and thank Him. You will soon find your heart rejoicing! The best medicine for a discouraged heart is thanksgiving. If you have a grateful heart, there will be joy there, too.
When we foster an attitude of gratitude, we can be content with what we have and not wish for what we do not have. Thanksgiving for even the smallest of things develops a contented spirit within us. A spirit of discontent cannot flourish in an atmosphere of thanksgiving, but contentment grows in the soil of a grateful heart.
When we count our blessings, we understand that God wants us to share with others. Seeing all we have to be thankful for gives us compassion for those in need. A thankful person will care about others…..will share of his resources with others. How can we be truly thankful if we do not recognize and respond to the needs of others?
Have a Thanksgiving that makes you smile! May God give you and your loved ones hearts to plant seeds of thanksgiving, and may you know God’s joy, contentment and compassion during this season of thanks.
Good Afternoon Everyone!
The sun has returned and it is pretty comfortable outside with temperatures in the Kansas City metro mainly in the lower 50s. Highs today should top out in the mid 50s in most spots, with the sunny skies sticking around for the rest of the day. Tonight with clear skies, light winds and leftover moisture from earlier this week we should see fog (dense at times) developing over a good portion of the viewing area. This morning we had dense fog advisories and I wouldn't be surprised if we have a similar advisory for tomorrow morning.
Several little pieces of energy will be moving around us through the weekend, and the big question is whether or not we'll see any residual effects from them. Right now I think we'll see extra clouds for Friday and Sunday...and a very slim chance for some sprinkles and/or light rain Friday night or Saturday morning. The weekend should still be at or above average temperature wise, with highs in the 50s.
Then our attention turns to next week and our potential for rain, snow and colder weather. Models are all over the place for rain and snow chances Monday through Wednesday. The Canadian model has rain possibly switching to snow starting late Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS has nothing precip wise for next Monday and Tuesday and extra clouds with a storm passing to our north on Wednesday. The ECMWF has a chilly rain possibly switching to snow also starting Monday night into Tuesday. Right now I'm still keeping a small chance(20%) for rain late Monday and a rain possibly switching to snow on Tuesday (40%) with a chilly Wednesday in store behind it.
Of course, being five days away things will most likely flip flop a few more times...so for now, that's where the forecast stands. Between now and then, get out and enjoy the lovely weather for today...as we might not see a fully sunny and warm day for a while!
Also, Joe mentioned this yesterday, but in case you missed it...we'll have our winter weather forecast posted on our blog during the afternoon hours tomorrow!
-Karli
Through in a few patches of rain...heaviest east and SE of KC and well, you can't say we didn't warn you...
The storm is still spinning it's wheels across MO at this hour...btw props to the EURO for picking this up so well late last week...it was the only model to correctly forecast the positioning of this storm last FRI I think...meanwhile the sensible weather is about the same...take a look at the storm from space...
Now a close-up view into the state line area...with KC in the middle...
Click on those pictures to make them bigger...
The question is when do we finally clear out the skies and how much can we warm up on THU...assuming we don't clear out a lot tonight...we'll probably not drop much at all from where we are now...and then slowly warm up tomorrow AM before seeing the sunshine go to work...so I suspect 50-55 is doable...it could get warmer IF we clear out faster...MOS data indicates, along with forecast soundings, the potential of 55-58 degrees...again the trick is when we clear out...and the difference of a couple of hours will indeed play a 5 degree role in the temperatures...
Another weak system will pass us by on SAT with the potential for a few patches of rain...especially KC SEwards...but the best energy for this looks to stay well to the south of here...then another weak system on SUN...but at this point it looks like we'll be on the SE side of that...with just a glancing blow...meaning another light event is possible...throughout all of this we're looking at rain and not snow...despite the chilly air now...this storm that's affecting us today has really NO connection to the Canadian prairies so as a result aside form the chilly air and the clouds that it generated...as soon as we get some sun we should moderate heading towards the weekend...
The gray weather though will come back soon enough...actually it won't really be leaving us for any length of time...so what sunshine we do get tomorrow or FRI...enjoy it while you can...because not a lot is in the forecast for the next 5 days...
Next week is a handful right now with the EURO on board for a more dramatic storm(s) while the ensembles aren't nearly that exciting...and the latter are the way we're going to lean at this point in time...something to watch however. By the way today is Winter Weather Awareness day...so if you want to learn more check out the link...also if you want a LOT of winter climatology for the region, the NWS in P Hill has put together a great resource for you...there's also some good climo stuff from the NWS office in Topeka...
We taped the winter forecast for FRI nights show...it runs about 7 minutes then we did an additional 10 minues or so for the web site...where we had a bit more fun with what we were doing...I haven't really changed my opinions that much for the season...I don't have a real strong feeling about things at this point...and storms like the one from earlier this week put the fear into me about how much snow I'm thinking...but we'll just soldier onwards...it's interesting that despite not talking a lot beforehand about our individual thoughts concerning the winter...that we all essentially arrived at some of the same conclusions...look for an early release to you, our bloggers, tomorrow or FRI...we've done this every year I think...and this year there's almost 15 minutes of us discussing things...
Of note...sometime over the next 4 days I'll post the snowfall totals for the region for the past 8 years...and our snowfall climatology from the NWS...
Have a great afternoon!
Joe
This is what Emmanuel Cleaver does with his time when he isn't busy voting "YES" on bad legislation:
From: The Honorable Emanuel Cleaver
Bill: H.Con.Res. 155
Date: 11/17/2009Dear Colleague:
Please join me in co-sponsorship of a resolution, H. Con. Res. 155, to designate the day prior to Thanksgiving as Complaint Free Wednesday.
From time to time, we all experience anxiety, frustration, stress, and regret. And often, we respond to these feelings with a criticism or a complaint. Regrettably, complaining keeps people stuck on current problems, inhibiting them from thinking constructively to find solutions. Research has also shown that complaining can be harmful to one’s emotional and physical health; relationships; and can limit professional career success.
In the spirit of hope, optimism, and postivity, and in honor of its efforts to encourage people to look forward, not backward, the group a Complaint Free World is to be recognized. A Complaint Free World’s goal, in fact, is to motivate 1% of the global population (about 60 million people) to become complaint free.
This timely and constructive (and revenue neutral) resolution would reaffirm the meaning of Thanksgiving by designating the Wednesday before as Complaint Free Wednesday. Surely Complaint Free Wednesday will be a meaningful and powerful reminder to prepare for a day of gratitude.
If you would like more information or would like to sign on as a co-sponsor, please contact Mary Petrovic of my staff. . . . I hope you have a pleasant and complaint-free day.
Warmest regards,
Emanuel Cleaver
Member of Congress
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Thanksgiving will be here soon. People speak about the holidays with great excitement, but my spirit is not ready to welcome Christmas, and embrace the season I adore.
I’m sure you’ve noticed the impact of commercial marketing. Companies try to convince us to hurry through pre-Christmas moments we should be able to enjoy. We seldom take time to absorb the traditions of Thanksgiving, and reflect on treasured moments which make us feel thankful.
Life moves quickly. There is always an urgency to rush…Why do we feel compelled to speed through our lives, as we frantically race to prepare for Christmas? Why can’t we take time for one day of thanks, and consider our blessings, no matter how small…
I am grateful for the little students who allow me to enjoy a spirit of thanksgiving at my preschool. We take time to learn about Pilgrims, and Native Americans. We talk about working together to reap a harvest of reward. We discuss what makes our hearts feel thankful, as we consider the first Thanksgiving and share together…
Twenty four children will enjoy their Native American Celebration next week, and not even speak about the arrival of Christmas.They will be excited about making projects, and sharing a Popcorn Feast. On our day of thanks, they will each bring something to share. We will sit down together and thank God for His provisions. I will teach them the importance of having a grateful heart. Maybe we need to embrace a heart of Thanksgiving, before we can learn to develop a spirit of thanks for the Christmas season ahead. We can ask God to fill us with His peace and help us understand the true meaning of Christmas.
God is near and He loves you. Be blessed with a grateful heart. Take time to celebrate Thanksgiving with your family.
I promise if you slow down, you will reap the harvest of God’s loving reward. God uses me to write what He wants me to share with each of you…He has rewarded me with a grateful heart and I am thankful.
Happy Thanksgiving, Nan
Scripture: Enter his gates with Thanksgiving and his courts with praise; give thanks to him and praise his name. For the Lord is good and his love endures forever; his faithfulness continues through all generations. Psalm 100:4-5
Prayer: Dear Heavenly Father, we long to have a spirit of joy as we prepare to celebrate the birth of your son. Help us consider why we celebrate Christmas. Help us develop a heart of thanksgiving for all you have given, and allow us to feel your peace, as we fill our hearts with the spirit of your love. Amen
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Good Afternoon everyone!
Snow has been falling since early this morning in parts of the viewing area...with the heaviest amounts across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. We've also had reports of sleet and snow mixing in with the rain around the Kansas City metro and also south around Shawnee and Olathe. Snow totals so far have been pretty impressive along the Kansas and Nebraska border, with a few spots already picking up seven inches of snow!
Here are some totals through 1pm:
Morrill, Baileyville, Beattie, Marysville, KS; : 7"
Fairview, KS: 6"
Highland, Eureka, KS: 5"
Fairfax, MO: 3"
Concordia, KS; Maryville, MO: 2"
St. Joseph, MO: 1.5"
Most of these totals, as you can see, are heavier on the Kansas side where the air was cooler under the rotating storm. The Missouri side saw mostly a cold rain, with some sleet mixed in. KCI airport had some light snow falling around 9-10 a.m. but nothing was sticking to the ground when I called them at that time. This storm should linger around the plains for the next 24-36 hours before it finally moves out to the north. I don't expect snow back in the forecast with this storm tomorrow, just a chilly rain/mist/drizzle as it meanders around the plains.
This will be our first official snow for the season, exactly one day later than last year's first snow date! This brings us back to reality as far as our weather is concerned. After a very mild first half of November we're reminded that we are approaching winter, and it's that time of the year to prepare for snow, cold temperatures, ice, etc. November 18th is Winter Weather Awareness Day. We'll detail more about winter safety on Wednesday.
In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your day, chilly rain/sleet/snow and all!
-Karli
++++++++++9:45 Update++++++++++
Still a very complex situation...on the one hand you can see how it can snow...on the other hand...th eTopeka sounding tonight revealed at least a 4000' layer of "warm" air above the surface...which will get eroded from west to east tomorrow...however closer to the State Line this erosion may not happen till later tomorrow AM...which coincedently is when most of the precip will be north of KC leaving the metro with the remnants of very light precip...perhaps some flakes mixed in (?) still up in the air...then the back side of the storm starts to weaken...which would be moving over us later tomorrow night and early TUE AM...
Radar out west looks pretty puny right now...NWS in Hastings is reporting snow sticking to grassy surfaces only with road temps still well into the 40s...but that's expected...closer to home the showers certainly look healthier in NE KS moving northwards and NWards around the eveloping storm...
Basically I'm going 2-4" for the NW tip of MO extending SWards towards Manahattan...there could be an isolated heavier amount...surrounding that area is an under 2" band...to north of St Joe...again this is NOT set in stone...DH/KR will have their hands full tomorrow AM figuring this stuff out...
Something else that has caught my attention is the drier low level air working into NW MO...this air, as the precip falls into it, will cool down even more...also of note is the models overforecasting the QPF of this storm at least thus far...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Good afternoon and thanks for spending a few minutes on the blog with me this crummy, yucky...Sunday afternoon...as things thus far are going according to plan with the rainfall and the falling temperatures...our midnight high was 49 degrees but we've been dropping all morning...and now are @ 40 as of 2PM...with rain all over the place that should last for the rest of the afternoon...so far in the metro rainfall totals are near about .33" and areas from Sedalia to Clinton to Nevada and Chanute have had 1-2.5" of rainfall with thunder earlier this AM...just a miserable November afternoon overall...
The winds are drying to bring in drier air from the NE dewpoints have dropped to the 20s in IA this afternoon and as the rainfall has encountered the drier air being brought in some of the rain evaporates and cools the temperatures down...that's why we've seen the falling temperatures today...and this was expected yesterday and was in the forecast...and this process may erode the temperatures a bit more over the next 24 hours...
Our storm is now really taking shape...and has produced a nice little 6-12" snowstorm in the Rockies...it's now snowing moderately @ Goodland, KS...where winter storm warnings are in effect for parts of western KS from Garden City northwards into SW NE...you can see a moderate to heavy snow band setting up out there now...so the aerial extent of the snow may not be large...some areas have already had 3-6" of snow...
So where is our storm now...spinning away in N NM...the water vapor loop shows it well...and as you look at it a dry slot of sorts is going to move into the region this evening cutting off the significant rainfall and leaving us with a lot of drizzle/mist that we'll deal with for the rest of the night with temps near 40 degrees or so...as our storm evolves and intensifies nearby and just too our south....the moisture on the backside of it (commahead) will move on top of us tomorrow allowing the rain to once again increase somewhat in intensity especially for areas N/NW of KC...last night I was focusing the heaviest of the precip for the storm overall to the SE and N of the metro and so far that call looks good...
The storm tomorrow is forecasted to pass to the South of the metro, the core near the Nevada area then by TUE AM near West Plains and by TUE PM up south of St Louis and by WED AM near St Louis (as it slows even more) before being kecked out to near Chicago by THU AM and as the storm pulls away and we start to at least see some sunshine on THU...we should moderate and by FRI we should warm up well into the 50s assuming we get enough sunshine...
Now onto the snow scenario...the latest data is showing the chance of snow increasing for areas up to the N/NW of the metro as a matter of fact the NAM is actually producing some accumulating wet snow for the NW tip of MO and NE KS...take a look at the snowfall forecast from the NAM
Now the GFS...
Getting more into the NAM at least...looking at various other products...and it appears that the bulk of this snow is supposed to come down tomorrow AM into early tomorrow afternoon...as it's grabbing onto a mesoscale band of precip and wrapping in into air cold enough to support snow...I always get nervous when a model tries to pinpoint some small mesoscale feature so I won't bite hard at it at this point...it should be noted the the GFS has a similar look just closer to the KS/NE border area north of Topeka and Manhattan...and it's certainly possible tomorrow night that there may be some flakes from Emporia to west of KC (near Topeka) upwards towards far N MO...but please don't put that in stone yet...lets see how the atmosphere responds as our storm gets closer...Winter Weather Advisories are now up for far NW MO...from St Joe NWards to the NE/IA border...and at this point this makes sense to me...
Here's something interesting...we haven't had one night yet in NOV with temperatures near freezing...the lowest being 36...in October we had one day @ 32 and one day @ 31...still no 32 degree lows in the forecast for awhile...and through yesterday we are close to 10 degrees above average for the month...
We'll update the blog later this evening as new information rolls in and I get a look at the 6PM soundings...
Joe
Today is Community Read-In Day at Graden Elementary School In Parkville, Mo. About 25 people with all different backgrounds, including me, were asked to read to the students at the school and then talk about our professions.
I got to read to Mrs. Garcia's third grade class. I read the book "Dear Mrs. LaRue: Letters from Obedience School." Briefly, it's about a dog sent away to obedience school for being bad...and he sends letters to his owner of his hardships. But he writes the letters on a typewriter. I had to ask if anyone even knew what a typewriter was...about half the class actually did. I was surprised.
We had so much fun reading the book, talking about dogs, and learning more about our experiences with animals. Afterwards they asked questions about my job here at Fox 4.
Mrs. Garcia was kind enough to take some pictures while the students and I talked, have look at the pictures. Since I talked quite a bit about my dog Checkers, I included a picture of her.
Thank-you for inviting me to be a part of your school day!
Very interesting weather needless to say after such a nice NOV stretch...as temperatures for the month are now approaching 10 degrees above average...but it will stop there...and start to come down over the next 7 days as, from a temperature standpoint, a drop is expected and once the drop occurs there will probably be very little day to day change in the temperatures which essentially means lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs 40-45 or so all the way through WED of next week...throw in a few periods of showers and rain...and it's going to remind folks of the weather last month again...although now that it's November, perhaps it won't hurt as bad this time through...
The Water Vapor loop shows a lot of interesting features...the remnants of Ida are spinning off the East Coast...Ida is responsible for 5 US deaths I believe in the Mid-Atlantic area (winds have been clocked near hurricane force yesterday evening along the coastline...and parts of eastern VA picked up over 10" of rainfall ...you can also see all the tropical and sub-tropical moisture streaming out of the eastern Pacific Ocean...that's the moisture that we've been dealing with for the last two days...and finally you can see the beginning of our storm system out towards the state of Washington...this storm will be the main player, as mentioned, in our weather for the next 5 days...
On the surface side there is a cold front moving our way...albeit very slowly...and should move through the area after midnight tonight...as it does so the warm air that we've enjoyed will become a thing of the past...as the 60s are replaced by 40s that once they arrive will be about as good as it gets...
The moisture to our south is neglible...normally if the moisture was thicker I'd be more concerned about more rainfall over the weekend...and while there may be a few sprinkles tomorrow...the amounts should be very light...however as the lift increases on SUN...the rain will also start increasing...if you take a look at the latest soundings from TX...it's VERY skimpy, moisture wise, above the surface...so at least initially we'll rely on the moisture that the storm brings with it to soup things up...that's always concerning to me...by as the storm edges closer the air aloft will be fanning outwards (difluence) and this means that the air below it rises...so it won't take much moisture to create rainfall...and I'm banking on this for later SUN into early MON AM...this may be the "heaviest" part of the storm...
The storm then will enter the plains...cut-off...and meander around for a couple of days...this will result in occasional batches of cold rain...and almost more noteworthy...low dark clouds...which the GFS is showing very well...take a look at this meteogram...which is a way of looking at various parts of the atmosphere...the green on top represents moisture...and you can see it's thick and abundant below 6000 feet through the middle of next week...
Remember to to click on the graphic and then "View Enlarged Image". This is actually a real neat way to see various model parameters (especially moisture) that may lurk between normal model layers...in a way it's like looking at forecast soundings for certain parameters without all the confusing lines...
The main question this evening is then HOW LONG does this storm linger...and while a slower and slower approach is best...I'm not sure...take a look at how the models are handling things by 6AM WED...
Again click on the image and the enlarge it...the left 2 are the GFS operational (top) and the ensembles (bottom) the right 2 are the EURO operational (top) and the impossible to find ensembles (bottom) basically they show about the same thing...although my feeling is that the operational EURO is wayyy to far east with the storm on WED...I think it will be closer to us...however sensible weather wise there really is no dramatic change in what we would experience...something to think about...sometimes these things get so wrapped up that dry air entrains into the storms from the SW...this will need to be watched, and the models won't be able to figure that aspect out...because if this happens...it's possible that we can see some significant breaks in the clouds for awhile...on TUE and WED...that though will be dealt with over the weekend...
Also note the next piece of energy diving into the west coast...that should be the energy to kick our soon to be storm out of here and let it be replaced by another faster moving storm...and the potential for more cold precip later next week...
Meanwhile closer to the storms intensifying center later SUN...down towards SW KS and NW OK...there should be a changeover to heavy wet accumulating snow...with the potential of 6-12" of the white stuff down there...assuming the air chills down enough...
Snow risk for our area is extremely low...I just don't see the atmosphere cooling down enough to support the creation of snowflakes...it needs to be watched...but again the best accumulating snows will be well away from here...
Joe
Good Afternoon Everyone!
We are a week away or so from having to finalize our winter forecasts for 2009-2010. I've been looking at a lot of different things (past El Nino years and their respective past winters, snow fall totals for those years, temperatures for those years, along with normal years as well.) Needless to say I'm wavering back and forth over certain parts of my forecast.
Typically in El Nino winters we have at or above average temperatures, and at or below average snowfall. There were some years though that proved to be the exception. Due to the fact this year has been so crazy (cool summer, very cold October, warm start to November) part of me wants to say this winter will be the exception as well. Only time will tell, and I have the next seven days to continue to go back and forth with my forecast.
Now on to the current forecast...dry for the rest of the week with temperatures above average. This weekend we'll see our rain chances going back up...to about 20% on Saturday and potentially much higher for Sunday. Two days ago the models were favoring a cut off low over the central Plains early next week. Yesterday they backed off and had a much more progressive pattern with a slight chance for rain Sunday and Monday. Then today several models jumped back on the cut off low bandwagon. Right now I went ahead and reintroduced rain chances back into the forecast for Sunday and Monday. It will be cold and rainy both of those days, with only a slight chance for rain Saturday.
As this storm(or lack thereof) evolves over the next 4-5 days we'll keep you up to date...and hopefully not have to change our forecast too much more!
Have a great rest of the day, and enjoy the nice weather!!!
-Karli
All day today from open to close. If you are a Veteran bring a copy of your DD-214. If you are active duty bying your military ID. I don't believe beverage is included.
I would like to take a minute to thank a friend of mine of 33 years. His name is Gary. He was a Marine during the Vietnam war and had quite a hard time while serving our country.
While in Vietnam, he was shot 3 different times. If that wasnt enough,one of the most painful things that he experienced while in Vietnam was when he was crawling under a bridge one day. he was bitten by a rat.
He of course had to undergo rabies shots for 14 days. He was allergic, so everywhere he got a shot, huge purple welts would come up and were quite painful. But is was better than dying.
The physician had to travel to his company everyday and give him the shot. This went on for 2 weeks. On the final day, the physician was shot on the way to give him his final dose.
It was a few days before he could get medical treatment and had to start the round all over again. Yes, another 14 days of shots.
After Vietnam, he came home, got married, had 2 boys and raised them.Taught them how to hunt, fish and enjoy life.
I have always had a lot of respect for everything he went through and was still able to maintain. He is one of my funniest friends and I always get a great big smile when I see him.
So HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO THE MARINES.. AND THANKS GARY!
That was one of the most amazing kid I believe I have ever seen not only does he do things most kids hate to do like chores but he helps his heighbors out and never ask`s for money and then when ya all pay it forward what does the kid do? He is giving the $300.00 to the Christmas shoe box program! Wow,most kids like Tyler would blow money on toys or candy not this young man,talk about doing the Lord`s work!Thank you Tyler for making my Monday a better day,you are a better man than most grown men and you have a heart of gold.Your outlook in life is one to be followed THANK YOU!
Forecast details will be handled on the news this evening @ 9PM...decent chance of some rain/showers tomorrow...timing is a bit faster so really at any time tomorrow there may be at least some rain in the area...but a full day long soaking event is not expected as far as I'm concerned...dewpoints have risen well into the 50s...so as a weak front undercuts this moisture...combined with some weak energy moving up from the Gulf Of Mexico...means at least some rain...my guess is that rainfall amounts should stay under .25" for the whole event, although there may be a few areas that do somewhat better that may linger till early TUE AM...there is some decent precipitable water around...and it's also interesting how the 18Z NAM has really backed off on the precip amounts...
Ida has been an interesting storm in a boring Hurricane season...it's still there, now a Category 2 hurricane with winds over 90 MPH...and the forecasts for the future movement of Ida are all over the place...and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for areas from New Orleans eastwards through the Big Bend Area of FL...
The track of Ida per the folks @ NHC is as follows...
Of the many things that I find interesting is what happens to the storm after landfall...as it potential wallows around across the SE part of the country before potentially re-emerging somewhere off the SE coastline...it's here that the models are all over the place with the EURO doing very creative things, as it moves the storm then due south through the Bahamas then eventually back up the coastline...it essentially sits and spins for about 5 days from WED through next MON...before getting absorbed by our next weather maker that moves through next weekend...all interesting stuff and potentially a flood maker for whereever Ida sits and spins...the heaviest rain will initially be in NW FL and the S GA area...then after that the heavy rains may be over the ocean waters before Ida moves closer to the coastline...
It should weaken somewhat as it approaches landfall early TUE AM...but the NHC has had all sorts of issues trying to figure out the strength of the storm over the past several days...here is a look at some of the model guidance showing the huge spread including loop-de-loops as well...
Here is the latest RECON report...
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 20:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 20:04:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°03'N 86°13'W (22.05N 86.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 74 miles (119 km) between the NNE and NE (33°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,903m (9,524ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 92° at 90kts (From the E at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNE (12°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 976mb (28.82 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,079m (10,102ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:21:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SE (142°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PARTIAL WALL NW
SFC CENTER 7NM SOUTH OF FLT LEVEL
The central pressure of the storm is holding @ 976 mbs...which is about where it's been for the last 6+ hours or so...winds may be coming down a bit...but still a pretty formidable storm...
And a brief visible loop...
This storm, I believe is already the deadliest tropical system of th year...killing at least 42 in El Salvador...
Let's end this on a lighter note...when I was out in Boulder a few weeks ago...one of the social scientists showed this video...apparently from a CBC show in Canada...sort of like our Colbert Report...it's a riot!
Have a great week!
Joe
God’s Song Will Carry You Through
I can’t carry a tune.
But many a day, a tune has carried me. A song in my heart has put a skip in my step, a smile on my face, and a hope in my soul.
Many songs have a story behind them…..they speak to a particular time in our lives. Some were good times, some were not. But a song keeps the memory alive. The best songs are the ones which remind us of special people in our lives, both present and past. They make us smile as we think about happy times and special moments enjoyed with those we love.
Songs are written, not only to be sung, but to be experienced. They are God’s way of putting us in tune with His very heart. The songs I love the most are those which help me worship God. At our church, we often sing “Amazing Love” and it is a song that is often in my mind as I move through my weekdays. Songs of worship and praise to God have a way of making their way out of church and into our daily lives.
Life can be a sad song. Too often, what our hearts hear are the songs of discouragement and trouble. When things are tough, we can be tempted to sing a different song….a song of despair and worry. When the children of Israel were transported to another country, what they missed the most was singing glad songs….they wondered how they could sing God’s songs in a strange land.
What they had to learn was that they could sing God’s songs anywhere and under any circumstances. It is a lesson that we must learn as well. When life is hard, sing a song…..a favorite song that reminds you of better times. Find a song that worships the One who has put a new song in our hearts. Allow God to speak words of encouragement to your heart as you sing to Him.
Because God’s song will carry you through.