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Winter Weather Predictions!
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
The time has come for the four of us in the weather office to sit down and discuss our thoughts on the upcoming winter. This is my third year doing this and it isn't any easier than the first time we sat down. The first year I honestly think a little slack was thrown my way since I was the new kid in town, fresh from my lifetime stint in the southeastern part of the U.S. (aka there wasn't much I knew about winter forecasting...but hey, I was in the right place to learn!) Last year I was going into the forecast with one real winter under my belt...and after a snowy first winter, I felt a repeat performance was in order. Boy was I wrong, I forecasted 27" last winter and we ended up at 14.6"(wayyyy off!) Needless to say, this year I am trying to keep me streak alive for either guessing closest to the snow total (which I did my first winter forecast) or nail the coldest low (which I did last year at -6). Then I wonder if my beginner's luck will last into winter forecast #3...I guess we'll know by next spring!
I went back and forth on my forecast, definitely taking into consideration El Nino's presence this year. I also took into consideration the quick 1.2" of snow we saw earlier this week (and freaked out momentarily for my below average snowfall forecast number). I then decided to stick to my gut feeling for this winter and came up with some numbers that I feel pretty confident about.
The entire team was in pretty close agreement about certain things for this upcoming winter...and tonight you'll get to see what we all forecasted. The winter weather forecast airs during our 9 p.m. newscast and right after it airs, we'll post not only the forecast but also a special web extra where we go into more detail about our thoughts. You can find all of this at the following link:
http://www.fox4kc.com/wdaf-winter-weather-round-table-111809,0,1679832.story
As for the weekend forecast...I kept us in the 50s all weekend, with cloud cover increasing each day. Saturday looks great with mid to possibly upper 50s for highs. We'll have to keep an eye out for a few sprinkles or light showers tomorrow as well. Sunday looks dry, but with extra clouds around which will keep us a little cooler, but still in the 50s. Next week is when we'll see our next chance for widespread rain and cooler weather returning...so get out there and enjoy the rest of your beautiful Friday!
-Karli
- Blog post
- 6 hours ago
- Views: 206
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The Sun is Back!
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
Good Afternoon Everyone!
The sun has returned and it is pretty comfortable outside with temperatures in the Kansas City metro mainly in the lower 50s. Highs today should top out in the mid 50s in most spots, with the sunny skies sticking around for the rest of the day. Tonight with clear skies, light winds and leftover moisture from earlier this week we should see fog (dense at times) developing over a good portion of the viewing area. This morning we had dense fog advisories and I wouldn't be surprised if we have a similar advisory for tomorrow morning.
Several little pieces of energy will be moving around us through the weekend, and the big question is whether or not we'll see any residual effects from them. Right now I think we'll see extra clouds for Friday and Sunday...and a very slim chance for some sprinkles and/or light rain Friday night or Saturday morning. The weekend should still be at or above average temperature wise, with highs in the 50s.
Then our attention turns to next week and our potential for rain, snow and colder weather. Models are all over the place for rain and snow chances Monday through Wednesday. The Canadian model has rain possibly switching to snow starting late Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS has nothing precip wise for next Monday and Tuesday and extra clouds with a storm passing to our north on Wednesday. The ECMWF has a chilly rain possibly switching to snow also starting Monday night into Tuesday. Right now I'm still keeping a small chance(20%) for rain late Monday and a rain possibly switching to snow on Tuesday (40%) with a chilly Wednesday in store behind it.
Of course, being five days away things will most likely flip flop a few more times...so for now, that's where the forecast stands. Between now and then, get out and enjoy the lovely weather for today...as we might not see a fully sunny and warm day for a while!
Also, Joe mentioned this yesterday, but in case you missed it...we'll have our winter weather forecast posted on our blog during the afternoon hours tomorrow!
-Karli
- Blog post
- 1 day ago
- Views: 104
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Another Dull Gray Day
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
Through in a few patches of rain...heaviest east and SE of KC and well, you can't say we didn't warn you...
The storm is still spinning it's wheels across MO at this hour...btw props to the EURO for picking this up so well late last week...it was the only model to correctly forecast the positioning of this storm last FRI I think...meanwhile the sensible weather is about the same...take a look at the storm from space...
Now a close-up view into the state line area...with KC in the middle...
Click on those pictures to make them bigger...
The question is when do we finally clear out the skies and how much can we warm up on THU...assuming we don't clear out a lot tonight...we'll probably not drop much at all from where we are now...and then slowly warm up tomorrow AM before seeing the sunshine go to work...so I suspect 50-55 is doable...it could get warmer IF we clear out faster...MOS data indicates, along with forecast soundings, the potential of 55-58 degrees...again the trick is when we clear out...and the difference of a couple of hours will indeed play a 5 degree role in the temperatures...
Another weak system will pass us by on SAT with the potential for a few patches of rain...especially KC SEwards...but the best energy for this looks to stay well to the south of here...then another weak system on SUN...but at this point it looks like we'll be on the SE side of that...with just a glancing blow...meaning another light event is possible...throughout all of this we're looking at rain and not snow...despite the chilly air now...this storm that's affecting us today has really NO connection to the Canadian prairies so as a result aside form the chilly air and the clouds that it generated...as soon as we get some sun we should moderate heading towards the weekend...
The gray weather though will come back soon enough...actually it won't really be leaving us for any length of time...so what sunshine we do get tomorrow or FRI...enjoy it while you can...because not a lot is in the forecast for the next 5 days...
Next week is a handful right now with the EURO on board for a more dramatic storm(s) while the ensembles aren't nearly that exciting...and the latter are the way we're going to lean at this point in time...something to watch however. By the way today is Winter Weather Awareness day...so if you want to learn more check out the link...also if you want a LOT of winter climatology for the region, the NWS in P Hill has put together a great resource for you...there's also some good climo stuff from the NWS office in Topeka...
We taped the winter forecast for FRI nights show...it runs about 7 minutes then we did an additional 10 minues or so for the web site...where we had a bit more fun with what we were doing...I haven't really changed my opinions that much for the season...I don't have a real strong feeling about things at this point...and storms like the one from earlier this week put the fear into me about how much snow I'm thinking...but we'll just soldier onwards...it's interesting that despite not talking a lot beforehand about our individual thoughts concerning the winter...that we all essentially arrived at some of the same conclusions...look for an early release to you, our bloggers, tomorrow or FRI...we've done this every year I think...and this year there's almost 15 minutes of us discussing things...
Of note...sometime over the next 4 days I'll post the snowfall totals for the region for the past 8 years...and our snowfall climatology from the NWS...
Have a great afternoon!
Joe
- Blog post
- 2 days ago
- Views: 163
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Clouds over Entebbe
- From: wingnut
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Description:
Don,
Just got back from Uganda. Stayed in Entebbe, Uganda which is just North of Lake Victoria. Flew Army Chinooks for a medical humanitarian mission. You'd have loved it except no McDonalds sausage biscuits for breakfast.
Jim Hand
- 4 days ago
- Views: 15
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Lot's To Talk About...
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
Very interesting weather needless to say after such a nice NOV stretch...as temperatures for the month are now approaching 10 degrees above average...but it will stop there...and start to come down over the next 7 days as, from a temperature standpoint, a drop is expected and once the drop occurs there will probably be very little day to day change in the temperatures which essentially means lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs 40-45 or so all the way through WED of next week...throw in a few periods of showers and rain...and it's going to remind folks of the weather last month again...although now that it's November, perhaps it won't hurt as bad this time through...
The Water Vapor loop shows a lot of interesting features...the remnants of Ida are spinning off the East Coast...Ida is responsible for 5 US deaths I believe in the Mid-Atlantic area (winds have been clocked near hurricane force yesterday evening along the coastline...and parts of eastern VA picked up over 10" of rainfall ...you can also see all the tropical and sub-tropical moisture streaming out of the eastern Pacific Ocean...that's the moisture that we've been dealing with for the last two days...and finally you can see the beginning of our storm system out towards the state of Washington...this storm will be the main player, as mentioned, in our weather for the next 5 days...
On the surface side there is a cold front moving our way...albeit very slowly...and should move through the area after midnight tonight...as it does so the warm air that we've enjoyed will become a thing of the past...as the 60s are replaced by 40s that once they arrive will be about as good as it gets...
The moisture to our south is neglible...normally if the moisture was thicker I'd be more concerned about more rainfall over the weekend...and while there may be a few sprinkles tomorrow...the amounts should be very light...however as the lift increases on SUN...the rain will also start increasing...if you take a look at the latest soundings from TX...it's VERY skimpy, moisture wise, above the surface...so at least initially we'll rely on the moisture that the storm brings with it to soup things up...that's always concerning to me...by as the storm edges closer the air aloft will be fanning outwards (difluence) and this means that the air below it rises...so it won't take much moisture to create rainfall...and I'm banking on this for later SUN into early MON AM...this may be the "heaviest" part of the storm...
The storm then will enter the plains...cut-off...and meander around for a couple of days...this will result in occasional batches of cold rain...and almost more noteworthy...low dark clouds...which the GFS is showing very well...take a look at this meteogram...which is a way of looking at various parts of the atmosphere...the green on top represents moisture...and you can see it's thick and abundant below 6000 feet through the middle of next week...
Remember to to click on the graphic and then "View Enlarged Image". This is actually a real neat way to see various model parameters (especially moisture) that may lurk between normal model layers...in a way it's like looking at forecast soundings for certain parameters without all the confusing lines...
The main question this evening is then HOW LONG does this storm linger...and while a slower and slower approach is best...I'm not sure...take a look at how the models are handling things by 6AM WED...
Again click on the image and the enlarge it...the left 2 are the GFS operational (top) and the ensembles (bottom) the right 2 are the EURO operational (top) and the impossible to find ensembles (bottom) basically they show about the same thing...although my feeling is that the operational EURO is wayyy to far east with the storm on WED...I think it will be closer to us...however sensible weather wise there really is no dramatic change in what we would experience...something to think about...sometimes these things get so wrapped up that dry air entrains into the storms from the SW...this will need to be watched, and the models won't be able to figure that aspect out...because if this happens...it's possible that we can see some significant breaks in the clouds for awhile...on TUE and WED...that though will be dealt with over the weekend...
Also note the next piece of energy diving into the west coast...that should be the energy to kick our soon to be storm out of here and let it be replaced by another faster moving storm...and the potential for more cold precip later next week...
Meanwhile closer to the storms intensifying center later SUN...down towards SW KS and NW OK...there should be a changeover to heavy wet accumulating snow...with the potential of 6-12" of the white stuff down there...assuming the air chills down enough...
Snow risk for our area is extremely low...I just don't see the atmosphere cooling down enough to support the creation of snowflakes...it needs to be watched...but again the best accumulating snows will be well away from here...
Joe
- Blog post
- 1 week ago
- Views: 161
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Snow For Some I Think...
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
OUR WINTER FORECAST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THE 20TH...DURING THE 9PM SHOW...WITH POSSIBLE RE-AIRINGS THAT WEEKEND...WE'RE EXPECTING TO FILL ABOUT 6-8 MINUTES...personally I don't have a feel at all for this winter now...I could lean either way...but initital thoughts are a winter of extremes...with less than average snowfall...and above average precipitation...and temps that for the winter (DJF as a whole) are tilted to above average. I think I just told you too much...but really this is what I've been thinking for more than 2 months and I haven't seen a reason yet to alter those thoughts...
Now before you get yourself worked up...I still have a tough time thinking that anyone in our viewing area will see any flakes...
Good afternoon and thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weeather Blog...a lot to talk about after what has been a relatively dull last several weeks...as the Pacific energy is really going to kick start several storms that should have pretty important impacts on the weather in these parts...promising brief shots of cold air...more mild air...and seasonal air...along with some decent rainfall...and perhaps flooding rainfall in parks of the Ozarks...also a pretty gray eriod is heading our way again...so enjoy tomorrow...after that we kind of get into a gray rut for about 4+ days...
A cold front will be moving into the region tomorrow night...so enjoy the mild and gusty south winds tomorrow...this front is the first stage of of declining weather...as it moves into OK moisture...dewpoints near 50...it will undercut that moisture...nelp create a lot of clouds tomorrow night and even the potential of some shower activity...and once those lower clouds form...it may be tough to scour them on SAT...with the potential for some additional sprinkles/lighter showers to move through...but at this point SAT should not be a total rainout...perhaps drippy at times...but OK...temps will certainly be cooler with readings only 50-55 I think...
The developing storm that has all of our attention is still really just a big peice of jetstream energy in the Northern Pacific Ocean...here is a look at it...
This energy is going to turn into an impressive storm in the Desert SW on SUN...this then will continue to develop and tap into a lot of Gulf Moisture by early MON AM and create a lot of rain in the Plains and S Plains...as the storm intensifies it's likely to cool down the atmosphere in a swath towards the NW of the upper level low...so it's possible that yes it may snow with this storm...but since we're in the wrong place in relationship to the storm...the best chances of snow (a heavy wet type thing) would be well towards the W and perhaps well SW of the metro...for us the storm gets soooo wrapped up that it brings in wayyyy to much warm air above the surface...so while it's near 40 on the ground in the KC area...there may be a time during the storm that the air is actually warmer above the surface...
Regardless this looks to be an impressive storm that we'll be tracking for the next 5 days...it won't be a fast mover...so it will affect us through TUE...and as a result temperatures which have been so far above average for the month thus far (+9.4 degrees)...are about to start edging downward...but it's also important to note that these storms that will affect us for the next 5-10 days will not be able to tap any of the cold air way to the north in NW Canada...soo it would take the EXACT right track of a storm to do anything worth getting excited for IF your a winter lover...from an enthusiast standpoint however...there certainly will be a lot to talk about for the rest of the month...
Speaking of the month...take a look and see how things from a Temperature Departure from average standpoint look...
That's an awfully warm US...quite the opposite of what happened in OCT...at least so far...from a precip standpoint...there's a lot of real estate that's drying out...
More on the soon to be developing storm tomorrow afternoon
Joe
- Blog post
- 1 week ago
- Views: 274
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September Weather Ahead
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
Mother Nature seems a bit out of whack these days...last month, at times was more like late November...the forecast for the weekend is more like October...it'll happen in this part of the country and it's fun to track...although last month was a bit nutty with the long term chill...
So here we are not even through the first week of NOV...and temperatures are running close to 5 degrees abovee average, including today, and after a frosty morning out there...highs this afternoon have rebounded into the mid 60s and we should be able to tack on at least 10 to that tomorrow...as highs should be almost 20 degrees above average for the next couplle of days...the record on SAT is 78...and we should be very close to it, if not break it. It's all good...and I'm thinking about putting the Christmas lights out this weekend...usually I do it later in NOV when I can barely feel my hands after about an hour...something about putting them up now seems smart...although at least going by the EURO there really aren't any signs about prolonged cold heading our way for the foreseeable future...
Let's backtrack...here is a look at the latest surface map...showing the warmith continuing to build towards the S/SW of KC...where highs today surged well into the 70s...with even an 80 showing up in a few places...also look at Denver...last week flights were canceled because of the snow and wind...today they're well into the 70s as well...I'm guessing all that snow is long gone by now...
this warm bubble can easily been seen aloft as well...notice in the 48 hour NAM forecast how temperatures @ 5K feet are close to 20C/68F...
The contours at that level are leanig from the WSW to the ENE...this indicated a pretty dry flow of air at that level...now notice as we finish off the weekend...the adjustment to the way the contours are oriented...in this map more from south to north...and there are somes at least some low level moisture will start moving in from the GoM later in the weekend...how much of this translates into clouds remains to be seen...
There is going to be some sort of weak SW wave that gets kicked out by MON...so there is at least a chance there but it doesn't look overly impressive at this point but with dewpoints by then into the 50s...at least the chance is there for a light QPF event...but overall next week as well looks to be seasonal to mild...with NO surge of cold air heading our way...there may be another weak system THU or FRI of next week...there are some interesting things showing up on the day 10 GFS...but I don't really trust much "big picture" stuff past day 5 at this point...The EURO at it's ensembles are pretty mild for mid NOV...so we'll see how things pan out...
Onto the tropics where we briefly saw Ida spin up and intenisfy near the coast of Nicaragua yesterday...briefly attain hurricane status and now has started to weaken since it made landfall earlier this AM. Ida will skirt the coastal areas of Honduras at the beginning of the weekend and then potentially come back out in the westerdn Caribbean where the water is warm...and would potentially support intensification...
Remember Bill...here is a find for you...
This is a radar presentation of Hurricane Bill as an Air Forece Recon flight was checking it our...pretty cool stuff as you can see the flight path in relationship to the eye of the storm...Bill did at one point attain CAT 4 status...I believe by looking at the time staps this woould be 24 hours afterwards when winds were close to 100+.
And finally my friend Mark O' Malley from the NWS in Pleaant Hill has puit together an El Nino discussion and it's potential implications for the area winter forecast...take a look.
Joe
- Blog post
- 2 weeks ago
- Views: 169
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Great Stretch Ahead!!!
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
Good Afternoon Everyone!
The gorgeous, warm weather of yesterday has left us, but we still have an OK week ahead of us! Temperatures climbed into the 60s around lunch time here in Kansas City, with mid 50s up near St. Joseph. Clouds moved in from the northwest around noon and will be with us for the rest of the day. There are also some light showers moving through parts of Kansas and now moving into western Missouri. A few showers or sprinkles are possible this afternoon, then as high pressure moves in we'll see clearing late tonight.
Minus today's small chance for rain, the rest of the week looks pretty dry. A ridge building out west will move into our part of the country and allow us to warm up nicely heading into the weekend. Highs by Friday should be back around 70, and the weekend should see mid 70s for highs!
Rain should hold off until next Monday, then we'll see another front moving in. Not only can we expect rain back in the forecast, but we'll also see our temperatures dropping back to average (around 60) for our highs.
I know Joe put some great facts into his blog yesterday about October 2009 being the third coldest on record. The National Weather Service did a nice little write up about it. Click here to read more: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=eax&storyid=35858&source=0
Have a great day everyone...and hopefully you can get some raking done with the drier weather this week!-Karli
- Blog post
- 2 weeks ago
- Views: 132
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Rainy Evening
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
While Joe is enjoying his first taste of winter in Colorado, we are on the eastern side of this monster storm and we're going to get rain, rain, and more rain for the rest of your Thursday. We saw a first round earlier today, then some scattered showers around noon in the metro...but the heaviest and more widespread rain was to the west in eastern Kansas. Due to the expected heavy rain, the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for most of the Missouri side of the viewing area.
For the rest of the afternoon we'll see rain increasing in coverage across not only the Kansas City metro, but also through the state of Missouri as well. Rainfall totals so far have been anywhere from a few hundreths down near Lake of the Ozarks to around an inch and a half in Kirksville to almost two inches in parts of eastern Kansas. Before all is said and one, totals will range from a mere 0.5 inches up to 3 inches.
The rain will taper off shortly before midnight, but I'm not expecting us to clear out until sometime tomorrow. In fact, Friday could be rather dreary with lots of clouds and temperatures back below average, hovering around 50 degrees during the afternoon hours. This storm is very large and will take it's sweet time moving away from the Central Plains, hence the reason I think we'll be slow to clear out tomorrow behind the actual front.
The weekend shows some promise of nicer days ahead! We should be drying out all weekend with a gradual warm up occuring as well. For all you trick or treaters, it will be chilly but dry for your door to door knocking! Also, this Saturday evening before you go to sleep make sure to set your clocks back an hour. Daylight Saving Time ends this weekend and we gain that extra hour of sleep (woohoo!) Also, DST is a great reminder to check your smoke detector batteries as well!
Have a great day everyone, and stay dry!
-Karli
- Blog post
- 3 weeks ago
- Views: 198
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Not Pleasant!
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
Not exactly a Chamber Of Commerce day out here... and tomorrow while mostly drier is not looking good at all.,..as colder air is now starting to filter into the area from NW MO/NE KS...temperatures maxed out @ 59 today...and have now started dropping...we'll be closer to 50 later this afternoon...and down to near 40 tomorrow AM...take a look at the surface map from 2PM...showing the colder air moving into the area...
This colder air will be with us through SAT AM...which may become very frosty here...then a quick return to return flow on SAT PM should allow temperatures to moderate to near 60...so at least part of the weekend is fine...sUN still has some issues as another disturbance will move down in the flow...the Canadian is the deepest with this...EURO almost as deep and the GFS is faster and flatter although I just looked at the GFS ensemble...which is somewhat slower...as a result the potential for some rain is certainly going to stay in the forecast...the return flow on SAT night will keep temperatures well above freezing...but the flip to that is a rapid increase in clouds on SUN...there is still some questions about IF we get the rain...it probably won't be much and the new NAM is out with very little chance and milder PM temps...
MON looks OK...but another storm will enter the picture by WED/THU...with more clouds...a brief warming trend and then more rain...followed by colder temps..
DH reminded me this AM that today is the anniversary of the October Surprise back in 1996...ah the memories flood back...6-12: of snow...power outages for more than a week for some...what a mess...I distinctly remember the purpleish flashes of light as the transformers started to go as trees were losing their limbs because of the weight of the heavy wet snow...what a mess that was...
Longer range...more storms...and a very diffficult time staying warm or even mild around here for awhile...the story pattern looks to continue well into the early part of NOV...
This will be my last blog for awhile...I'm off this weekend and then next week will be in Boulder, CO for a NOAA workshop...NOAA was kind enough to invite your's truly to participate in a workshop to create better ways of warning the public in severe weather situations...we'll be trying to come up with advanced warning techniques to better serve the public and I'll be relating to them the concerns that face broadcasters as they try to evolve new ideas...they have a bunch but since TV is by far the #1 way the public gets it's weather information, especially in critical weather scenarios, the TV angle needs to be represented...and I thank them for inviting me to do so. I've never been out there before...I know they had a decent snow yesterday...but during this time of the year it's melting fast...and last I looked they should be well into the 50s for a few days...if I have the opportunity I'll take some pics and perhaps write a blog during the conference to update you and my colleagues...
Meanwhile up in North Platte, NE...the snow keeps piling up...you remember the records they set a few weekends ago...well they've gotten mmore snow...here is a statement about the October snow records that continue to fall...
...RECORD ALL-TIME OCTOBER SNOWFALL SET AT NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA...
THE TOTAL SNOWFALL SO FAR FOR OCTOBER AT LEE BIRD FIELD IN NORTH
PLATTE IS 18.0 INCHES. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT
OF SNOW THAT HAS EVER FALLEN AT THE STATION IN OCTOBER. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 15.7 INCHES SET IN THE YEAR 1969.
THE SNOW CAME WITH TWO STORMS. THE FIRST...ON OCTOBER 9TH AND
10TH...DUMPED 13.8 INCHES OF SNOW. THE SECOND CAME OCTOBER 22ND...
WHEN 4.2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT NORTH PLATTE.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
WILL ONLY INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE BY WHICH THE OLD RECORD WAS BROKEN.Two last things...for you severe weather buffs...Ryan Mcginnes tagged along with Project Vortex2 this spring...he's posted some real pretty pictures on his web site...also if your fascinated by the tropics...a new comprehensive book about every troopical storm since the mid 1800s has been released...it's free to print off...all 250+ pages but you can order a hardcover as well...check it out...it's a big download but very interesting facts/figures up through 2006!
Have a great afternoon/night...MT will be working for most of the weekend so he'll keep you updated on the blog as well...
Joe
- Blog post
- 4 weeks ago
- Views: 227
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Freeze #1 Is In The Books
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
Temperatures really varied in the region this morning...got a call from Holt,MO with a low near 26...meanwhile withing the urban area temsp were near 35 degrees...as it goes for a night with clear skies (finally) and light winds...here is a look at some of the lows...click on the graphic to make it larger...
Onward now...last night @ 8PM...something happened @ KCI that didn't happen for the previous 181 hours...a CLR report concerning ceilings below 12K feet...basically it means that no clouds were present below 12,000 feet...it was like that at around 6AM SAT the 10th...before the shallow cold air generated a mass of clouds that for all intensive purposes hung on for some 181 straight hours...YUCK!
That's why this midday satellite picture is a joy to see...goodness knows I won't have much to talk about on the news @ 5PM tonight...but I'll show it anyway just to prove a point...
Certainly a long time coming...with that said it's time to track our next storm...which promises more rain in the plains states by WED...and the new model data shows a slowing storm system...first here is our storm now...off the western part of the country...not looking like much...
The area we're watching for WED PM is midway between the west coast and the storm south of the Alaska coast...also note Rick in the lower right corner...more on him in a minute...The storm in question will move through N CA..dive into the 4 corners area...then eject out towards KC later WED PM...this will continue to bring in mild...and eventually moist air from the southern part of the country..dewpoints will eventually come into the 50s...and as the storm and associated cold front moves through late WED or early THU...the stage is set for rain/storms...each model run slows this storm down a few hours at a time...so it's possible that most of WED day sees very little precip...the warmest of the weather will be MON-WED with temps well in to the 60s to near 70 or so...before turning blustery and cool on THU.
This storm should be a wet one...so a decent shot of rainfall is likely at this point...perhaps in the .50-1.0" range...
Ahead of the storm clouds are rapidly going to thicken up TUE PM/night...back to that low gray overcast thing again and the winds on TUE...should be out of the South at 15-25+...so it'll feel like a storm is heading our way...
Look towards the lower right of the sat picture above...that is Hurricane Rick...which earlier this AM...was classic looking and packing winds of 180 MPH while I was on the air...very impressive...here is a visibble shot...as of this writing winds are close to 175 MPH...
TPC forecasters are taking the storm towards the far southern Baja California area sometime on WED...it WILL weaken since the waters are cooler along the storms path...
The 7AM WED intensity forecast is for the storm to have winds just shy of 100 MPH with higher gusts...IF you have friends or loved ones heading to Cabo San Lucas...they REALLY need to pay attention to this storm...odds are they WILL be affected one way or another...by the way...the remnants of this storm may inject more moisture into our midweek storm...but this would pass towards the SE of the region...
Aside from the next few days...the maps to me don't look overly warm or even mild...and it still looks like we're going to continue to see some decent rains move through...so certainly not that dry...we're still 11 degrees below average for OCT...
Watching the Chiefs game now...lots of empty seats in DC...seems like there are some real differences between the good teams and the bad teams this year...there seem to be about 10 decent to good teams...and a whole bunch of less than medicore teams...but I like the Chiefs chances this afternoon...
Joe
- Blog post
- 4 weeks ago
- Views: 268
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Pokes Of Sun...And Warmer!
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
Well there are a few out there...as this satellite picture is indicating...and granted they last for seconds it seems...but we are slowly digging ourselves out of this mess...this AM was 1 straight week that we've seen essentially nothing but clouds...give or take a few minutes of sun here and there...it's been not so pleasant in these parts...but it's about to get a heck of a lot better...
These clouds should leave us rather quickly this evening...so skies will actually clear out to a large degree tonight...allowing temps to fall into the low-mid 30s...however with south winds kicking in later this evening...I don't want to go to far in dropping those temperatures...suffice it to say a frost warning is in effect for most of the region from KC southwards...
Tomorrow the limiting factor WILL NOT be the amount of sun...we're finally going to see a ton of it out there...but the wind and the amount of mixing...temps starting in the mid 30s...winds that don't pick up till the afternoon hours and a mixing depth to about 925 mbs...or about 3000 feet means that temps should get to near 62 or so...IF there was more wind aloft above the surface and the mixing was better we easily could make 70 or so...but I just don't think that will happen right now...however the winds will continue to pick up tomorrow night allowing temps to only drop into the 40s...as a matter of fact a few thousand feet off the ground on MON AM...the winds will be close to 60 MPH!
MON should see better mixing...allowing temps to make it to near if not above 70...and a mild start is expected on TUE...
After TUE...which right now looks dry...although the EURO is persistent in giving us some WAA showers as early as TUE AM..I'm discarding that for now...although additional cloud cover is more likely on TUE...with more wind and dewpoints coming up well into the 50s...this is all the result of our next storm which will be moving into the 4 corners area...and it's going to be an energetic one...take a look at the GFS forecast for it on WED AM...
This will be a decent midwest storm that may produce some thunderstorms as it comes through on WED...and there are indications...that we actually could see a severe weather outbreak near the area on WED PM and SE/E of here on THU...so a lot to watch for with this storm...the "fanning out" of the air (diffluence) will be impressive...equally impressive may be the wrap around part of this storm...so cold air will be wrapping into the backside of this thing...but while temps on THU will turn chilly again and depending on clouds/wind...once again on FRI AM temps may approach 32...no long term cold should move in...
Also...while the hurricane season has been very quiet so far...the eastern Pacific season is cruising along...including Rick...which is packing winds as of this writing @ 145 MPH...take a look...
Rick may threaten the Baja area sometime later WED...on the Atlantic side...we're done with Henri...so the next one would be Ida...I bring this up because we need to start watching the western Caribbean later this week...this is the time of the year where you watch the southern end of upper level trofs that break off and/or wallow around...also there may be a weakness along the coast of northern S America that needs to be watched...but as the season winds done and the tropical waters lowly cool off...the focus shifts back westwards towards the caribbean and the GoM for new tropical development...
Not overly optimistic concerning the potential for baseball tonight...if there is a rain out...there are patches of light rain expanding in NYC now...with temps around 50...the game will be made up tomorrow @ 3PM...
Have a great Saturday!
Joe
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A Very Big Day
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Today...in case you hadn't heard we celebrated the 60th anniversary of WDAF...numerous former employees over the years were in the station getting caught up with each other and all the technological advances in the past decades...it really is amazing how technology has changed not only the station...but also, closer to home, the way weather is done at TV stations...back in the day it was using magic markers on plexiglass...then somebody created magnetic symbols for maps...(in my case...25 years ago...it was double-sided tape)...and eventually the first computer graphics came out some 27 or so years ago...I believe it was the Colorgraphics LiveLine system...many moons ago...for sure...
Anyway..things sure have changed...we also presented the Silver Circle Award to former weatherman Dan Henry today outside our studios in a ceremony...here is a little blast from the past for you...
Anyway it was a fun afternoon...and more surprises are in store tonight before and after the ALCS game...so stay tuned.
Weatherwise...no changes needed to the forecast...as warmer air comes in on SUN...with more clouds expected on SAT...maybe a few PM breaks...but it certainly will be another day with temps below average...SUN though should be a winner in the PM with highs near or above 60...finally...
It does look like the second half of OCT will be more seasonal than the first half...as a more zonal flow of west to east moving pacific air finally returns...not only aloft...but this milder air will in time work down towards the surface and while there will be more storms/chillier airmasses...tough to imagine anything close to what we've experienced for the last 15 days or so as we continue to run some 11 degrees below average for the month...however this number will start to head back upwards as we go through the next 15 days or so...odds are however that this month ends up several degrees below average...keep in mind that JULY was 5 degrees below average...so we'll see if this month can be more impressive...compared to average that is...
This map shows all the record COLD HIGH Temperatures set in the last week...I thinnk here is KC we're now up to 4...now take a look at the actual record lows...not nearly as many...and this is due to the same thing that has created all the record cold highs...cloud cover...if this airmass came in without all the warm air/moisture above it...then we would've have very few record low highs...and many more cold lows...
Something interesting...for all the talk about freezes...we've still not done it officially @ KCI...and depending what happens on SUN AM...south winds don't excite me at this point to the potential...there really isn't anything showing up down the road indicating a great chance of a freeze happening...we'll watch the AM of the 24th though...
Last night we had our first AMS meeting...and we predict the winter season in a contesst...I went with a low of -6 and a whopping 13" of snow...MT and I were briefly talking about things this afternoon...initial feelings on my part...an I-44 winter...normal number of cold shots...higher ice threats...that western ridge has been around since the early summer...and seems to not want to break down for any lengthy period of time...the EURO monthlies are trending very mild for the PAC NW and Big Sky country...which dovetails into El Nino thinking...it's so early and I reserve the right to alter things...but 1) I've been impressed with the southern jet now for more than a month...and 2) this Pacific ridging always wants to rebuild...which at least to me would indicate more NW flow situations...and supressed to the south major precip events...3) When I predict more snow (last year) and in the past...I get burned...nothing scientific there...just observation...
Whatever...
Joe
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October Cold...Winter Trends?
- From: fox4weatherteam
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A lot to go over this afternoon...thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weather Blog...as we endure another chilly October afternoon...as we creep close to 12 degrees below average for the month...in what is our coldest start to October in recorded KC weather history going back to the 1880s...
The clouds are hanging tough and while we may get a break or two in the clouds later this afternoon...the clouds will be tough to break out of for any length of time...so more of the same is expected through SAT...as another surge of chilly air moves into the region as we head towards SAT...this should be the last part of of these cold air shots in this weather pattern...as things will be re-aligning themselves later in the weekend...allowing milder air to temporarily flood back into the plains...finally pushing temps back to where they should be for this time of the year...but it will be a temporary thing...as another storm will develop and usher in a more typical OCT shot of chilly air during the middle/later of the next week but at least we should be in the milder air later SUN throough TUE PM...before we see a trend towards cooler temperatures...
The NWS in Pleasant Hill did a real nice, quick write-up concerning the cold start to October...
A Chilly October Start...
While October 2009 started on the warm and toasty side (76 degrees on October 1st), the recent weather conditions of the past two weeks have left many feeling like it's already mid-November! In fact, daily temperatures in Kansas City over the past 5 days are closer to average high temperatures for the second week of November. Through the 14th of October, the average temperatures for Kansas City (average of daily high and low temperature) is 49.5 degrees, some 11.0 degrees below normal! An average temperature of 49.5 degrees ranks the start of October 2009 as the coldest in recorded history in Kansas City.
Here are the top 10 coldest Octobers through the 15th of the month in Kansas City. With warmer weather expected to return by this weekend, updated statistics for this cold start will continue through the remainder of this week.
Rank Average Temperature Year (through 10/15)
1 49.3 2009** 2 52.1 1977 3 53.6 1985 4 54.1 1987 5 54.4 1988 6 55.1 1891 7 55.4 1888 8 55.5 1952 9 55.7 1925 10 55.9 1974 ** 2009 Temperature through 10/15 estimated based on forecastObviously, Kansas and Missouri have not been alone in experiencing much below average temperatures so far this month. Below is a graphic depicting the departure from normal temperatures over the past 2 weeks. Much of the nation from the northern Rockies through central and southern plains has been more than 10 degrees below average. If you wanted warmth, you could have headed to southern Texas, the Gulf Coast, or Florida; where temperature averaged 3-6 degrees above average.
(click on image for larger version)
Other Interesting Statistics:
So far in October of 2009, we have already experienced 4 days with high temperatures below 50 degrees. With unseasonably cool temperatures forecast through Saturday, the potential exists to experience 5 or more days with high temperatures below 50 through only the first 17 days of October. Looking back through Kansas City observational history reveals that only 11 other years have recorded 5 or more days with high temperatures not reaching 50 degrees (though the entire month). These years include: 2002, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1932, 1930, 1926, 1917, 1913, 1908, 1898.
We have also experienced 3 record cold high temperatures in Kansas City during the past week and a half.
October 11th: 42 degrees (previous cold record high of 47 in 1909)
October 13th: 45 degrees (tied previous cold record high of 45 in 1986)
October 14th: 46 degrees (previous cold record high of 49 in 1937)
end text...
So I wanted to take it a step farther....let's look at all the other years in that top 10 and see how much snow fell during that winter...just to see if there is a correlation...
1977: 16.5"
1985: 13.4"
1987: 26.3"
1988: 6.9"
1891: 20.6"
1888: 10.1"
1952: 22.3"
1925: 42.4"
1974: 20.8"
So essentially out of all those years...only 2 had above average amounts of snow...with 4 below average and the others near average...
OK let's get into the data even more...with all the talk about El Nino going on...do any of those years correlate to El Nino years? I only have good El Nino data through 1950...so how does it compare...1977 was an El Nino year...1987 was an El Nino year...1988 was a strong LA NINA...and 1974 was a weak LA NINA...so no correlation there...also 1925 was an El Nino year...
Regardless it's wayyy to cool for this time of the year...
Winter forecasts have started to come out...today NOAA issues their forecast...which looks really familiar to me...because it's the typical El Nino winter forecast if I remember correctly...
From NOAA...
NOAA: El Niño to Help Steer U.S. Winter Weather
October 15, 2009
High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)
El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States, according to the 2009 Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Such seasonal outlooks are part of NOAA’s suite of climate services.
“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”
“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”
Highlights of the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) include:
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Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across much of the western and central U.S., especially in the north-central states from Montana to Wisconsin. Though temperatures may average warmer than usual, periodic outbreaks of cold air are still possible.
High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)
- Below-average temperatures are expected across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic from southern and eastern Texas to southern Pennsylvania and south through Florida.
- Above-average precipitation is expected in the southern border states, especially Texas and Florida. Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas. However, tornado records suggest that there will also be an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.
- Drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
- Northeast: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather in this region is often driven not by El Niño but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. These patterns are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance.
- California: A slight tilt in the odds toward wetter-than-average conditions over the entire state.
- Alaska: Milder-than-average temperatures except along the western coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-median precipitation for most areas except above median for the northwest.
- Hawaii: Below-average temperatures and precipitation are favored for the entire state..
This seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.
end text...
This forecast looks pretty much like the standard El Nino winter weather effects that CPC has written about before...
So basically there taking a page out of the usual El Nino playbook...but here's the rub...obviously not ALL El Ninos are the same...they vary in strength and location...is it a west based El Nino...an East based El Nino...just because there is an El Nino...or La Nina...especially if it's weak...the results across the board can be all over the place...so I hate the typical El Nino playbook forecast...that dry forecast for the OH Valley is a spot on forecast from the playbook...
Whatever...
Our friends over at Accu Weather also have created their winter forecast...which is provided here...
Bastardi Says Core of Winter from D.C. to CharlottePosted 2009-10-14
By Joe Bastardi
AccuWeather.com
According to AccuWeather.com's Chief Meteorologist and Expert Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi, winter will be centered over an area from Maryland to the Carolinas as a fading El Niño results in the stormiest and coldest pattern in recent years.
Bastardi predicts the current El Niño will fade over the winter and will probably not have as much of a role in the overall weather pattern as one would think during a typical El Niño year. In July, Joe was the first to talk about how the fading El Niño will play a role in the winter forecast. This fading El Niño pattern will lead to a stormier and colder winter in the southern and eastern United States. While the El Niño is fading this winter, other factors are pointing to a winter very similar to that of 2002-2003.
A colder, snowier winter would mean added snow removal efforts, more travel delays and extended school closures, especially for the southern schools where snow and ice is predicted.
Be sure to visit AccuWeather.com's Facebook page for a behind the scenes look at our winter forecast, including Joe's answers to some of our Facebook Fan questions!
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
The areas that will be hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be from southern New England through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including the Carolinas. Areas from Washington D.C. to Charlotte have had very little snowfall the past two winters. This season these areas could end up with above-normal snowfall.
Northern areas, including Buffalo, Boston and Maine, have been hit hard the past couple of winters, but will see normal snowfall with temperatures slightly below normal this winter.
However, the traditional lake-effect areas of western New York may see local variations of heavier snows. Bastardi adds that while these areas will have a normal winter, the areas farther south that have escaped from the snow and cold the past couple of winters will see the worst winter conditions in the form of snow and cold.
Cities such as New York, Boston and Philadelphia could get up to 75 percent of their total snowfall in two or three big storms.
While some parts of the Appalachians did have harsh winter weather in the form of ice last year, this winter could be one of the snowiest since 2002-2003, when up to 80 inches fell in many places. Snowfall totals this year could reach between 50 and 100 inches in the Appalachians.
Last winter, the usage of salt was way up because of the number of ice storms. Salt supplies could be compromised again this year for state and local road crews that battle the winter weather. On the other hand, ski resorts could have a great year with plenty of powder for skiers.
The storm track that could develop this year will bring storms into Southern California, then across the South and up the Eastern Seaboard. That track will lead to the normal amount of nor'easters from Cape Hatteras to New Jersey.
This type of storm track will differ from that of the past two years, when storms tended to take a track farther west from Texas into the Great Lakes. That track into the Great Lakes brought unseasonably mild weather to the major East Coast cities, keeping them on the rainy side of the storms.
The South
The track this year right along the Eastern Seaboard would put the major cities on the cold, wintry side of the storms. Areas form Atlanta to Charlotte could have several snowstorms this year, which is something that this region has not seen in a while.
The Interstate 20 corridor from Dallas to Atlanta will be a strike zone for ice and snow, given the storm track and proximity to cold air. By the end of the winter, people from Dallas to the Carolinas could say "Wow, we had snow this year!" said Bastardi.
Midwest and Plains
The Midwest and central Plains could get a break this winter, given that past couple of winters have been cold and snowy. Places such as Chicago, Omaha, Minneapolis and Kansas City may have below-normal snowfall and could even average a bit milder than past years.
However, Oklahoma into Texas will be where the cold will lead to ice and snow, and it is not out of the question that snow and ice are as far south as College Station and San Antonio, Texas.
West and Pacific Northwest
A warm and somewhat dry weather pattern is expected from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. The typical barrage of winter storms that hit Seattle and Portland may not occur this winter, which would lead to below-normal precipitation.
The core of the wet weather will be south of San Francisco into southern California and the Southwest. While some people across Southern California fear the El Ni intense rains, mudslides and flooding as seen this fall.
For example, Los Angeles could have 110 percent of normal rainfall and the Sierra and Southwest mountains will have the normal amount of snowfall which is good for skiers.
The Olympics
The Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia, from Feb.12 to 28 could be impacted by the lack of snow and cold weather this winter. It is possible that a dry and mild pattern will develop very near to or during the time of the Olympics.end text...
Comparing the two...they are VERY similiar to each other...Joe Bastardi is a big fan of analogues...and his biggie is 2002-3...that winter we had...a whopping 9.5" of snow...we waited on our first inch till JAN 15th!
We'll see!
Joe
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Chilly Now...Warmer Days Ahead
- From: fox4weatherteam
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More 40s for today...and more clouds! I know it sounds like a broken record forecast but I promise there is a light at the end of the tunnel! Sunday we will definitely see sunshine and a return of the 60s. Between now and then, the cloud cover will try it's hardest to stick around, and I think it will win out the battle against the sunshine for at least Thursday and Friday. Saturday I think we'll start out cloudy, but should break out in a little sunshine (fingers crossed!) late in the day.
As far as temperatures are concerned...it will be a slow warm up between now until Saturday(think upper 40s to lower 50s). By Sunday we'll have lower 60s and Monday we could be approaching 70! This may seem like a big warm up, but the reality is, we'll just be returning to more average temperatures for this time of the year.
Also, I mentioned Saturday we may start out cloudy...and part of the reason for that is a pretty compact but potentially strong wave that will be moving in from the north Friday evening into Saturday morning. Right now it looks cold enough aloft and saturated enough that there could be some flurries Friday evening into Saturday morning across north central MO!!! Definitely something that has been showing up a few days now in some of the models, but looking a little more promising today. Do I think we'll see something like that here in KC Friday night or Saturday morning, probably not...but it will bear watching for the second half of the week. Also, with the way the weather has been this past week, clearly anything is possible! Time will tell for sure...right now though I kept our forecast just cloudy and chilly to start on Saturday.(and flurry free!)
I don't know about you, but I am sick of the clouds and chilly air. I try to keep a positive frame of mind and look for the good out of the situation, so here it is: Due to the colder air this past week, it has allowed a lot of the trees to start changing a little ahead of schedule. Driving around town there are some brilliant colors showing up, and it certainly is nice to look at. Also, the ragweed is pretty much nonexistent, which I couldn't be happier about after a terrible couple of months of allergies. So that is my glass half full spin on the chilly and cloudy weather...I hope you have one of your own!
Have a great day everyone!
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Rain Returns
- From: fox4weatherteam
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More rain is on the way and will arrive later this afternoon and last through the overnight hours. We may even have a few sprinkles or showers around Wednesday morning, but they should be over (if they aren't already) shortly after the morning commute. Totals for the next couple of days should be around or less than one inch in Kansas City. Click here to see the latest forecast 60 hour rain totals from the NAM. Click here to see the latest forecast 60 hour rain totals from the GFS. Again, you'll notice both keep the metro under an inch of total rain. Temperatures will remain on the cool side as well, with highs in the 40s for Wednesday and Thursday. 50s are expected for Friday and Saturday.
For the end of the week we'll finally see a drier forecast and a warmer forecast in the long term. The clouds will be slow to clear out, so expect mostly cloudy skies for Friday and Saturday, but by Sunday we'll see more sunshine and less cloud cover. Temperatures will respond to the abundant sunshine by early next week with highs forecast to be back in the upper 60s.
In other news, the Pacific Hurricane Season continues on, with Tropical Storm Patricia sitting off the west coast of Mexico. It's always interesting to watch the Pacific when the Atlantic Hurricane Season is quiet...usually it is more active, and this year that is certainly the case!
Stay warm out there everyone...we'll be in the 60s by the end of the weekend!
-Karli
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Cool Weather Prevails
- From: fox4weatherteam
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The chilly weather will continue through the upcoming work week, with rain chances sprinkled throughout the forecast as well. Tonight we'll see some brief clearing (not total clearing, but some breaks in the clouds) before clouds surge back in and rain chances go back up. A couple of waves of energy will pass us by on Wednesday and Thursday, and we'll see about a 40% chance for rain either of those days. Both of those days we'll be stuck in the 40s for highs due to the extensive cloud cover and scattered showers. For what it is worth...our average high is some 20-25 degrees below where it should be for this time of the year! Normal average highs in the 40s is more typical of December!
By Friday I think we'll finally turn the corner and start to see signs of a warm up to more seasonal temperatures. The weekend looks dry and warmer, with highs ending up in the 50s on Saturday and 60s on Sunday! For those of you running in the Kansas City Marathon on Saturday, it looks chilly to start, with morning lows around 30.
Looking ahead to next week...it looks like the weekend warm up will continue through at least next Tuesday or Wednesday. We should see highs returning to 60s and hopefully some 70s by early next week!
Enjoy the rest of your day everyone...and stay warm!
-Karli
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Our Coolest Stretch?
- From: fox4weatherteam
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++++++++++++10pm UPDATE+++++++++++
We did not set a record for the coldest high on today's date...we hit 43...I think the record was 41...
Also tonight during the 9PM show I talked about a time about 5-8 years ago where we had a really dreary stretch of weather in late OCT...I remember this because MT was off for the week and I received numerous emails/calls from folks who were plain crany at their favorite meteorologist...people were angry abouot the rain/clouds/cold weather that lasted for a looooooong time...
It was October of 2002...from the 23rd through NOV 3...every day we were in the upper 30s to mid 40s for highs...it rained almost every day at some point...finally on the November 4th the sun came out!
Oh and by the way...it snowed on 10/16 and the month was the 4th coldest based on highs!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Odds are today will be a record breaker for the coldest high temperature for this date (10/11)...and when you consider yesterday's high was 43...today will be close to that...and tomorrow will struggle in the 40s once again...and there is no signs of warmth coming soon...this will probably go down as the coolest stretch of OCT weather so early in the season we've seen since records have been kept...at least concerning highs...back in 2000 (do you remember the cold weather from 10/6-10/9...49-47-49-56...) even this from a high temperature standpoint is colder...although the lows back then were with 5 straight mornings at or below freezing...
That wasn't an issue this AM...temps never dropped in town because of the clouds...our low was 35 degrees and I'm not surprised...the clouds acted as a blanket so what little heat we built up yesterday...essentially bounced back to the ground as it rose and hit the clouds...it's in a sense the opposite of radiational cooling...those same clouds are keeping temperatures in check today...with very little rise so far...as of this writing we're up to 40 degrees...with the clouds in place we'll drop very little tonight...and actually may rise a degree or two towards daybreak as the winds switch more to the SE...temps now in C/S MO are in the 40s and lower 50s...so some of the "mild" air will start heading our way tonight and tomorrow...however temps tomorrow will again struggle with highs near 50 or so...persistent warm air advection aloft will create small pockets of drizzle or mist every so often...in terms of totals I'm not expecting much...and while there should be cloud cover on TUE...the WAA aloft will stop for awhile...before resuming again by evening...so there may be some breaks of sunshine...but again temps will be slow to respond unless we get more substantial amounts of sun...
At this point it's hard to see the next 60 degree day...let alone 70 degree day till next weekend...but I do think some warmer air will once again return towards the area...which will be a welcome change...we're now more than 9 degrees below average for the month and after today's data...it'll be closer than 10 degrees...very impressive...and we're not alone...take a look...as much of the midwest is Chilly with a Capital C!
Meanwhile...the story is much the same for the country...with some exceptions towards the coastal areas...
Meanwhile the rest of the country is in the same boat with some exceptions...take a look...mainly the SE part of the USA and along the Gulf Coast area...
Yesterday I talked at length about the record snow in North Platte, NE...one of our viewers had a sister up in that part of the country and was kind enough to send in this photo...
Ahhhh winter in October! Speaking of which...the Rockies baseball game was cancelled yesterday because of snow/cold...right now it's a balmy 32 degrees and there's the chance of some very light ZL- this evening...perfect...actually pretty cool satellite pictures showing the cold air dammed up against the eastern slopes of the Rockies...take a look...these will be black at night.
Seems to me like we're hitting our peak colors now...to me at least this is a week+ early compared to previous years...here is the latest fall foliage report from the MO Dept of Conservation...
Fall Color Update - October 8, 2009
Missouri boasts a lovely progression of fall colors beginning in September and finishing in the middle of November. Check back each week to see how the 2009 season plays out!
Regional Summaries:
Northwest Region, including St. Joseph and Chillicothe:
The early species such as sumac, poison ivy, cottonwood and ash have almost completely turned, and the next wave--including maple, hickory and some oak--is beginning to show color. Cool nights and sunny days have produced vibrant colors in the sumacs and poison ivy. As long as the weather doesn't turn extremely cold, these factors should produce the same effect in the remainder of the trees.
Northeast Region, including Kirksville and Hannibal:
Browns, golds and reds can be seen along fall color routes. Peak fall color is expected within the next two weeks. Cool temperatures at night continue to expedite the color change process. If you get the chance, take a drive and enjoy the fall color.
Kansas City Region:
Fall colors are becoming more pronounced in the Kansas City Region. Cooler nighttime temperatures and sunny days have caused the yellows to intensify. Sumac, poison ivy and Virginia creeper are red and at or past peak this week in most areas. Red maples are starting to show good color, and sugar maples are showing a little color change. Green ash are at peak if they still retain leaves; many are already bare. Dogwood, white ash and pear are showing stronger purples, and the dogwoods and white ash should be at or past peak at the end of this week. Yellows will develop this week on honey locust, elm, redbud, hickories and hackberry. Little color change has occurred yet on oaks in the region. Insignificant amounts of "browning out" of leaves, combined with trees still retaining most of their foliage, should produce a very good year for fall color in the region. We should have some really good color developing this week; look for the peak sometime around October 20. For scenic fall color drives in the region, try Highways 45 and 224 along the Missouri River. For hiking opportunities, the following areas are showy in the fall: Big Buffalo Creek Conservation Area, Benton County; Maple Woods Natural Area, Clay County; Burr Oak Woods Conservation Area, Jackson County; White Alloe Creek Natural Area, Platte County; Knob Noster State Park, Johnson County.
Central Region, including Columbia, Jefferson City and Lake of the Ozarks:
Central Missouri is finally experiencing some dramatic fall color changes. A look across the canopy reveals reds, oranges, yellows, purples and browns. Sugar maple, red oak, sassafras, persimmon and dogwood account for most of the red and orange hues, while hickory, green ash and silver maple are turning yellow. Much of the forest is still green, but color shifts seem to be noticeable almost daily. The next few days will produce some heavy rains and cool temperatures. This will knock many leaves off of the trees and stimulate the remainder to cease chlorophyll production, revealing other colorful leaf pigments. Central Missouri's fall color peak appears to be right on schedule: October 15. Next week should be the best week of the month for viewing fall color. Explore Painted Rock Conservation Area in Osage County or Hart Creek Conservation Area in Boone County for an afternoon hike through oak-hickory forest, woodland and glade habitats. Also, consider a drive along Highway 94 between Jefferson City and Hermann to see the changing color on the river bluffs.
Another tidbit...we talk on occasion about the second severe weather season...well like the first part...at least so far...it's a major dud...in the month of September their were only 10 reports of tornados recorded...the 3 year average is 82 and according to the SPC website this was the lowest number of reports since the early 1950s...last September their were 111 reports most of which were connected to a landfalling hurricanes (Gustav and Ike)...so the seasons tropical dullness has also affected the tornado counts as well...here is more data from the SPC concerning the tornadic trends of over the last few years...
That'll do it for now...I'm going to watch the 2nd half of the Chiefs game...have a great afternoon...I'll see you for a rare 5PM newscast this evening.Joe
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- 1 month ago
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A Taste Of Winter
- From: fox4weatherteam
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Description:
++++++++++9:30PM Update+++++++++++
This AM we dropped to 33 to make this AM the coldest morning so far of this young fall season...we're holding now @ 35 degrees @ KCI...and the clouds look like they are going to win the battle tonight...some areas may not drop below freezing assuming there are no breaks in the cloud cover...the cold air advection has stopped...and while dewpoints would certainly support mid 20s...the clouds will continue to act as a blanket...the latest observation @ KCI indicates an overcast ceiling of 8000 feet...in Concordia the ceilings are close to 7500 feet...the latest RUC data indicates moisture developing on top of us at around 5000' by daybreak which will tend to thicken up the clouds even more...so I think lows tomorrow AM will be in the 30-33 range...again IF there are holes in the clouds...some areas coould drop a couple of more degrees...now back to the previous blog...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yesterday's blog covers it all really...I talked about how the models were underestimating the cold air...they thought we'd be in the 50s now...and our call of temps in the 40-45 degree range with falling PM temps was correct...we're at 39 now...at noon we were 43...and we've maxed out...and are heading downwards for the rest of the afternoon...St Joe is at 35...and with north winds and cloud cover...it won't be a pretty afternoon...oh and the wind chill now is down to 30...just not right for October 10th...a quick check of previous highs on 10/10 going back to the 1880s reveal the coldest high temp on October 10th being 41 degrees in 1932...we were 43 in 1987 and that will be our high today as well...so this will tie the 2nd coldest high on record for this date...
The record low tomorrow AM is 27 degrees set back on 10/11/1987...the mornig after the 2nd coldest high temperature on the 10th...we could get close but as mentioned several times before there are cloud issues to deal with...first take a look at the surface map showing the colder air...before 1PM pouring our way...
Now to the clouds...they rapidly thickened up this AM...and while there is sunshine to our SE now...the clouds are going to be a huge issue for our forecast tonight...IF we clear (I doubt it now) we'll tank into the 22-25 range...assuming the clouds hang tough...with the cold air flow lessening dramatically this evening the question, as it's been since I first blogged about all this last weekend, will be how cold can it get with the cloud cover in place...right now my feeling is that we should fall in the 27-30 range...with the clouds in place...areas where there aren't clouds or fewer...to our south/SE...may see temps fall into the middle 20s. here is the early PM sat photo...
Regardless, after a widespread frost this AM the end of the growing season and ragweed season is upon us...early yes...but it could be worse...and on that subject...
How about the poor folks in NE...where they've had one heck of a snowstorm...let's look at North Platte which is in western NE...first some snow statistics for the N Platte, NE area...
So between last night (2" a record) and today's 11.8"...they're up to 13.8" for the month which is a record for the most snow in the month of OCT...the 11.8" today is a record for the day...and the most in any October day...I'm sure other snow records were broken...they average 1" of snow for the month...wow!We've all been there...this was not forecasted by my colleagues in NE...the NWS forecast from yesterday afternoon was for 2-3" in the N Platte area...instead close to 14" feel...been there...done that...those are the type of events that haunt you as a forecaster...you could see this skinny long band on radar overnight and this AM of moderate to heavy snow...near the I-80 corridor up there...plus to add insult to injury...there were higher totals...14-17" feel on the outskirts of N. Platte...absolutely crazy...and I'm sure a research paper or two will come out of this event...all you can do is try and learn from it...but like our October surprise years ago...common sense says..wait it's barely the second week of Oct...it's almost 50 degrees outside (yesterday's high was 49 there in the mid PM)...there's no way I'm forecasting a ton of snow with such warm ground conditions...ouch...and again...been there done that...the snow went towards the east as well...Omaha had 2-5+" of the white stuff and parts of W IA along the I-80 corridor is getting a coating as well.
Oh and by the way...it's 23 in Denver right now...they had snow earlier...and guess what...there's supposed to be baseball tonight...not so much...rescheduled for later tomorrow evening...fun times...
Forecast details on the news tonight @ 5PM (back to our normal 5PM newscasts till next April when baseball season returns)...but the forecast is not pretty for MON or later TUE as more rain is due...and a cold rain at that on TUE...
No signs of warmth showing up this week till perhaps the weekend...if you remember last weekend the models were showing that we'd have a shot of Indian summer weather by WED of the week...it'll happen I'm sure...but just a few days later...
Joe
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- 1 month ago
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