http://www.fox4kc.com/news/blogs New blogs from fox4weatherteam on Fox 4 KC Community Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:12:41 GMT Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:12:41 GMT wm@wdaftv4.com (WDAF) wm@wdaftv4.com (WDAF) KickApps Feed Builder 2009-11-20T20:12:41Z 357 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/searchEverything.kickAction?as=96364&sortType=recent 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Winter-Weather-Predictions/BLOG/1504748/96364.html The time has come for the four of us in the weather office to sit down and discuss our thoughts on the upcoming winter.  This is my third year doing this and it isn't any easier than the first time we sat down.  The first year I honestly think a little slack was thrown my way since I was the new kid in town, fresh from my lifetime stint in the southeastern part of the U.S. (aka there wasn't much I knew about winter forecasting...but hey, I was in the right place to learn!)  Last year I was going into the forecast with one real winter under my belt...and after a snowy first winter, I felt a repeat performance was in order.  Boy was I wrong, I forecasted 27" last winter and we ended up at 14.6"(wayyyy off!)  Needless to say, this year I am trying to keep me streak alive for either guessing closest to the snow total (which I did my first winter forecast) or nail the coldest low (which I did last year at -6).  Then I wonder if my beginner's luck will last into winter forecast #3...I guess we'll know by next spring! I went back and forth on my forecast, definitely taking into consideration El Nino's presence this year.  I also took into consideration the quick 1.2" of snow we saw earlier this week (and freaked out momentarily for my below average snowfall forecast number).  I then decided to stick to my gut feeling for this winter and came up with some numbers that I feel pretty confident about. The entire team was in pretty close agreement about certain things for this upcoming winter...and tonight you'll get to see what we all forecasted.  The winter weather forecast airs during our 9 p.m. newscast and right after it airs, we'll post not only the forecast but also a special web extra where we go into more detail about our thoughts.  You can find all of this at the following link: http://www.fox4kc.com/wdaf-winter-weather-round-table-111809,0,1679832.story As for the weekend forecast...I kept us in the 50s all weekend, with cloud cover increasing each day.  Saturday looks great with mid to possibly upper 50s for highs.  We'll have to keep an eye out for a few sprinkles or light showers tomorrow as well.  Sunday looks dry, but with extra clouds around which will keep us a little cooler, but still in the 50s.  Next week is when we'll see our next chance for widespread rain and cooler weather returning...so get out there and enjoy the rest of your beautiful Friday! -Karli The time has come for the four of us in the weather office to sit down and discuss our thoughts on the upcoming winter.  This is my third year doing this and it isn't any easier than the first time we sat down.  The first year I honestly think a little slack was thrown my way since I was the new kid in town, fresh from my lifetime stint in the southeastern part of the U.S. (aka there wasn't much I knew about winter forecasting...but hey, I was in the right place to learn!)  Last year I was going into the forecast with one real winter under my belt...and after a snowy first winter, I felt a repeat performance was in order.  Boy was I wrong, I forecasted 27" last winter and we ended up at 14.6"(wayyyy off!)  Needless to say, this year I am trying to keep me streak alive for either guessing closest to the snow total (which I did my first winter forecast) or nail the coldest low (which I did last year at -6).  Then I wonder if my beginner's luck will last into winter forecast #3...I guess we'll know by next spring! I went back and forth on my forecast, definitely taking into consideration El Nino's presence this year.  I also took into consideration the quick 1.2" of snow we saw earlier this week (and freaked out momentarily for my below average snowfall forecast number).  I then decided to stick to my gut feeling for this winter and came up with some numbers that I feel pretty confident about. The entire team was in pretty close agreement about certain things for this upcoming winter...and tonight you'll get to see what we all forecasted.  The winter weather forecast airs during our 9 p.m. newscast and right after it airs, we'll post not only the forecast but also a special web extra where we go into more detail about our thoughts.  You can find all of this at the following link: http://www.fox4kc.com/wdaf-winter-weather-round-table-111809,0,1679832.story As for the weekend forecast...I kept us in the 50s all weekend, with cloud cover increasing each day.  Saturday looks great with mid to possibly upper 50s for highs.  We'll have to keep an eye out for a few sprinkles or light showers tomorrow as well.  Sunday looks dry, but with extra clouds around which will keep us a little cooler, but still in the 50s.  Next week is when we'll see our next chance for widespread rain and cooler weather returning...so get out there and enjoy the rest of your beautiful Friday! -Karli Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:12:41 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Winter-Weather-Predictions/BLOG/1504748/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-20T20:12:41Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community The time has come for the four of us in the weather office to sit down and discuss our thoughts on the upcoming winter.  This is my third year doing this and it isn't any easier than the first time we sat down.  The first year I honestly think a little slack was thrown my way since I was the new kid in town, fresh from my lifetime stint in the southeastern part of the U.S. (aka there wasn't much I knew about winter forecasting...but hey, I was in the right place to learn!)  Last year I was going into the forecast with one real winter under my belt...and after a snowy first winter, I felt a repeat performance was in order.  Boy was I wrong, I forecasted 27" last winter and we ended up at 14.6"(wayyyy off!)  Needless to say, this year I am trying to keep me streak alive for either guessing closest to the snow total (which I did my first winter forecast) or nail the coldest low (which I did last year at -6).  Then I wonder if my beginner's luck will last into winter forecast #3...I guess we'll know by next spring! I went back and forth on my forecast, definitely taking into consideration El Nino's presence this year.  I also took into consideration the quick 1.2" of snow we saw earlier this week (and freaked out momentarily for my below average snowfall forecast number).  I then decided to stick to my gut feeling for this winter and came up with some numbers that I feel pretty confident about. The entire team was in pretty close agreement about certain things for this upcoming winter...and tonight you'll get to see what we all forecasted.  The winter weather forecast airs during our 9 p.m. newscast and right after it airs, we'll post not only the forecast but also a special web extra where we go into more detail about our thoughts.  You can find all of this at the following link: http://www.fox4kc.com/wdaf-winter-weather-round-table-111809,0,1679832.story As for the weekend forecast...I kept us in the 50s all weekend, with cloud cover increasing each day.  Saturday looks great with mid to possibly upper 50s for highs.  We'll have to keep an eye out for a few sprinkles or light showers tomorrow as well.  Sunday looks dry, but with extra clouds around which will keep us a little cooler, but still in the 50s.  Next week is when we'll see our next chance for widespread rain and cooler weather returning...so get out there and enjoy the rest of your beautiful Friday! -Karli weather nonadult false Winter Weather Predictions! text blog weather 113 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 1 0 1504748 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_The-Sun-is-Back/BLOG/1502750/96364.html Good Afternoon Everyone! The sun has returned and it is pretty comfortable outside with temperatures in the Kansas City metro mainly in the lower 50s.  Highs today should top out in the mid 50s in most spots, with the sunny skies sticking around for the rest of the day.  Tonight with clear skies, light winds and leftover moisture from earlier this week we should see fog (dense at times) developing over a good portion of the viewing area.  This morning we had dense fog advisories and I wouldn't be surprised if we have a similar advisory for tomorrow morning. Several little pieces of energy will be moving around us through the weekend, and the big question is whether or not we'll see any residual effects from them.  Right now I think we'll see extra clouds for Friday and Sunday...and a very slim chance for some sprinkles and/or light rain Friday night or Saturday morning.  The weekend should still be at or above average temperature wise, with highs in the 50s. Then our attention turns to next week and our potential for rain, snow and colder weather.  Models are all over the place for rain and snow chances Monday through Wednesday.  The Canadian model has rain possibly switching to snow starting late Monday night into Tuesday.  The GFS has nothing precip wise for next Monday and Tuesday and extra clouds with a storm passing to our north on Wednesday.  The ECMWF has a chilly rain possibly switching to snow also starting Monday night into Tuesday.  Right now I'm still keeping a small chance(20%) for rain late Monday and a rain possibly switching to snow on Tuesday (40%) with a chilly Wednesday in store behind it. Of course, being five days away things will most likely flip flop a few more times...so for now, that's where the forecast stands.  Between now and then, get out and enjoy the lovely weather for today...as we might not see a fully sunny and warm day for a while! Also, Joe mentioned this yesterday, but in case you missed it...we'll have our winter weather forecast posted on our blog during the afternoon hours tomorrow! -Karli Good Afternoon Everyone! The sun has returned and it is pretty comfortable outside with temperatures in the Kansas City metro mainly in the lower 50s.  Highs today should top out in the mid 50s in most spots, with the sunny skies sticking around for the rest of the day.  Tonight with clear skies, light winds and leftover moisture from earlier this week we should see fog (dense at times) developing over a good portion of the viewing area.  This morning we had dense fog advisories and I wouldn't be surprised if we have a similar advisory for tomorrow morning. Several little pieces of energy will be moving around us through the weekend, and the big question is whether or not we'll see any residual effects from them.  Right now I think we'll see extra clouds for Friday and Sunday...and a very slim chance for some sprinkles and/or light rain Friday night or Saturday morning.  The weekend should still be at or above average temperature wise, with highs in the 50s. Then our attention turns to next week and our potential for rain, snow and colder weather.  Models are all over the place for rain and snow chances Monday through Wednesday.  The Canadian model has rain possibly switching to snow starting late Monday night into Tuesday.  The GFS has nothing precip wise for next Monday and Tuesday and extra clouds with a storm passing to our north on Wednesday.  The ECMWF has a chilly rain possibly switching to snow also starting Monday night into Tuesday.  Right now I'm still keeping a small chance(20%) for rain late Monday and a rain possibly switching to snow on Tuesday (40%) with a chilly Wednesday in store behind it. Of course, being five days away things will most likely flip flop a few more times...so for now, that's where the forecast stands.  Between now and then, get out and enjoy the lovely weather for today...as we might not see a fully sunny and warm day for a while! Also, Joe mentioned this yesterday, but in case you missed it...we'll have our winter weather forecast posted on our blog during the afternoon hours tomorrow! -Karli Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:20:29 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_The-Sun-is-Back/BLOG/1502750/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-19T20:20:29Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Good Afternoon Everyone! The sun has returned and it is pretty comfortable outside with temperatures in the Kansas City metro mainly in the lower 50s.  Highs today should top out in the mid 50s in most spots, with the sunny skies sticking around for the rest of the day.  Tonight with clear skies, light winds and leftover moisture from earlier this week we should see fog (dense at times) developing over a good portion of the viewing area.  This morning we had dense fog advisories and I wouldn't be surprised if we have a similar advisory for tomorrow morning. Several little pieces of energy will be moving around us through the weekend, and the big question is whether or not we'll see any residual effects from them.  Right now I think we'll see extra clouds for Friday and Sunday...and a very slim chance for some sprinkles and/or light rain Friday night or Saturday morning.  The weekend should still be at or above average temperature wise, with highs in the 50s. Then our attention turns to next week and our potential for rain, snow and colder weather.  Models are all over the place for rain and snow chances Monday through Wednesday.  The Canadian model has rain possibly switching to snow starting late Monday night into Tuesday.  The GFS has nothing precip wise for next Monday and Tuesday and extra clouds with a storm passing to our north on Wednesday.  The ECMWF has a chilly rain possibly switching to snow also starting Monday night into Tuesday.  Right now I'm still keeping a small chance(20%) for rain late Monday and a rain possibly switching to snow on Tuesday (40%) with a chilly Wednesday in store behind it. Of course, being five days away things will most likely flip flop a few more times...so for now, that's where the forecast stands.  Between now and then, get out and enjoy the lovely weather for today...as we might not see a fully sunny and warm day for a while! Also, Joe mentioned this yesterday, but in case you missed it...we'll have our winter weather forecast posted on our blog during the afternoon hours tomorrow! -Karli weather nonadult false The Sun is Back! text blog weather 104 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1502750 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Thursday-Morning/BLOG/1502312/96364.html Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:45:16 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Thursday-Morning/BLOG/1502312/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-19T11:45:16Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community weather nonadult false Thursday Morning video blog weather 92 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1502312 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Another-Dull-Gray-Day/BLOG/1501426/96364.html Through in a few patches of rain...heaviest east and SE of KC and well, you can't say we didn't warn you... The storm is still spinning it's wheels across MO at this hour...btw props to the EURO for picking this up so well late last week...it was the only model to correctly forecast the positioning of this storm last FRI I think...meanwhile the sensible weather is about the same...take a look at the storm from space... [image]   Now a close-up view into the state line area...with KC in the middle... [image]   Click on those pictures to make them bigger... The question is when do we finally clear out the skies and how much can we warm up on THU...assuming we don't clear out a lot tonight...we'll probably not drop much at all from where we are now...and then slowly warm up tomorrow AM before seeing the sunshine go to work...so I suspect 50-55 is doable...it could get warmer IF we clear out faster...MOS data indicates, along with forecast soundings, the potential of 55-58 degrees...again the trick is when we clear out...and the difference of a couple of hours will indeed play a 5 degree role in the temperatures... Another weak system will pass us by on SAT with the potential for a few patches of rain...especially KC SEwards...but the best energy for this looks to stay well to the south of here...then another weak system on SUN...but at this point it looks like we'll be on the SE side of that...with just a glancing blow...meaning another light event is possible...throughout all of this we're looking at rain and not snow...despite the chilly air now...this storm that's affecting us today has really NO connection to the Canadian prairies so as a result aside form the chilly air and the clouds that it generated...as soon as we get some sun we should moderate heading towards the weekend... The gray weather though will come back soon enough...actually it won't really be leaving us for any length of time...so what sunshine we do get tomorrow or FRI...enjoy it while you can...because not a lot is in the forecast for the next 5 days... Next week is a handful right now with the EURO on board for a more dramatic storm(s) while the ensembles aren't nearly that exciting...and the latter are the way we're going to lean at this point in time...something to watch however. By the way today is Winter Weather Awareness day...so if you want to learn more check out the link...also if you want a LOT of winter climatology for the region, the NWS in P Hill has put together a great resource for you...there's also some good climo stuff from the NWS office in Topeka... We taped the winter forecast for FRI nights show...it runs about 7 minutes then we did an additional 10 minues or so for the web site...where we had a bit more fun with what we were doing...I haven't really changed my opinions that much for the season...I don't have a real strong feeling about things at this point...and storms like the one from earlier this week put the fear into me about how much snow I'm thinking...but we'll just soldier onwards...it's interesting that despite not talking a lot beforehand about our individual thoughts concerning the winter...that we all essentially arrived at some of the same conclusions...look for an early release to you, our bloggers, tomorrow or FRI...we've done this every year I think...and this year there's almost 15 minutes of us discussing things... Of note...sometime over the next 4 days I'll post the snowfall totals for the region for the past 8 years...and our snowfall climatology from the NWS... Have a great afternoon! Joe     Through in a few patches of rain...heaviest east and SE of KC and well, you can't say we didn't warn you... The storm is still spinning it's wheels across MO at this hour...btw props to the EURO for picking this up so well late last week...it was the only model to correctly forecast the positioning of this storm last FRI I think...meanwhile the sensible weather is about the same...take a look at the storm from space... [image]   Now a close-up view into the state line area...with KC in the middle... [image]   Click on those pictures to make them bigger... The question is when do we finally clear out the skies and how much can we warm up on THU...assuming we don't clear out a lot tonight...we'll probably not drop much at all from where we are now...and then slowly warm up tomorrow AM before seeing the sunshine go to work...so I suspect 50-55 is doable...it could get warmer IF we clear out faster...MOS data indicates, along with forecast soundings, the potential of 55-58 degrees...again the trick is when we clear out...and the difference of a couple of hours will indeed play a 5 degree role in the temperatures... Another weak system will pass us by on SAT with the potential for a few patches of rain...especially KC SEwards...but the best energy for this looks to stay well to the south of here...then another weak system on SUN...but at this point it looks like we'll be on the SE side of that...with just a glancing blow...meaning another light event is possible...throughout all of this we're looking at rain and not snow...despite the chilly air now...this storm that's affecting us today has really NO connection to the Canadian prairies so as a result aside form the chilly air and the clouds that it generated...as soon as we get some sun we should moderate heading towards the weekend... The gray weather though will come back soon enough...actually it won't really be leaving us for any length of time...so what sunshine we do get tomorrow or FRI...enjoy it while you can...because not a lot is in the forecast for the next 5 days... Next week is a handful right now with the EURO on board for a more dramatic storm(s) while the ensembles aren't nearly that exciting...and the latter are the way we're going to lean at this point in time...something to watch however. By the way today is Winter Weather Awareness day...so if you want to learn more check out the link...also if you want a LOT of winter climatology for the region, the NWS in P Hill has put together a great resource for you...there's also some good climo stuff from the NWS office in Topeka... We taped the winter forecast for FRI nights show...it runs about 7 minutes then we did an additional 10 minues or so for the web site...where we had a bit more fun with what we were doing...I haven't really changed my opinions that much for the season...I don't have a real strong feeling about things at this point...and storms like the one from earlier this week put the fear into me about how much snow I'm thinking...but we'll just soldier onwards...it's interesting that despite not talking a lot beforehand about our individual thoughts concerning the winter...that we all essentially arrived at some of the same conclusions...look for an early release to you, our bloggers, tomorrow or FRI...we've done this every year I think...and this year there's almost 15 minutes of us discussing things... Of note...sometime over the next 4 days I'll post the snowfall totals for the region for the past 8 years...and our snowfall climatology from the NWS... Have a great afternoon! Joe     Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:19:25 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Another-Dull-Gray-Day/BLOG/1501426/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-18T20:19:25Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Through in a few patches of rain...heaviest east and SE of KC and well, you can't say we didn't warn you... The storm is still spinning it's wheels across MO at this hour...btw props to the EURO for picking this up so well late last week...it was the only model to correctly forecast the positioning of this storm last FRI I think...meanwhile the sensible weather is about the same...take a look at the storm from space... [image]   Now a close-up view into the state line area...with KC in the middle... [image]   Click on those pictures to make them bigger... The question is when do we finally clear out the skies and how much can we warm up on THU...assuming we don't clear out a lot tonight...we'll probably not drop much at all from where we are now...and then slowly warm up tomorrow AM before seeing the sunshine go to work...so I suspect 50-55 is doable...it could get warmer IF we clear out faster...MOS data indicates, along with forecast soundings, the potential of 55-58 degrees...again the trick is when we clear out...and the difference of a couple of hours will indeed play a 5 degree role in the temperatures... Another weak system will pass us by on SAT with the potential for a few patches of rain...especially KC SEwards...but the best energy for this looks to stay well to the south of here...then another weak system on SUN...but at this point it looks like we'll be on the SE side of that...with just a glancing blow...meaning another light event is possible...throughout all of this we're looking at rain and not snow...despite the chilly air now...this storm that's affecting us today has really NO connection to the Canadian prairies so as a result aside form the chilly air and the clouds that it generated...as soon as we get some sun we should moderate heading towards the weekend... The gray weather though will come back soon enough...actually it won't really be leaving us for any length of time...so what sunshine we do get tomorrow or FRI...enjoy it while you can...because not a lot is in the forecast for the next 5 days... Next week is a handful right now with the EURO on board for a more dramatic storm(s) while the ensembles aren't nearly that exciting...and the latter are the way we're going to lean at this point in time...something to watch however. By the way today is Winter Weather Awareness day...so if you want to learn more check out the link...also if you want a LOT of winter climatology for the region, the NWS in P Hill has put together a great resource for you...there's also some good climo stuff from the NWS office in Topeka... We taped the winter forecast for FRI nights show...it runs about 7 minutes then we did an additional 10 minues or so for the web site...where we had a bit more fun with what we were doing...I haven't really changed my opinions that much for the season...I don't have a real strong feeling about things at this point...and storms like the one from earlier this week put the fear into me about how much snow I'm thinking...but we'll just soldier onwards...it's interesting that despite not talking a lot beforehand about our individual thoughts concerning the winter...that we all essentially arrived at some of the same conclusions...look for an early release to you, our bloggers, tomorrow or FRI...we've done this every year I think...and this year there's almost 15 minutes of us discussing things... Of note...sometime over the next 4 days I'll post the snowfall totals for the region for the past 8 years...and our snowfall climatology from the NWS... Have a great afternoon! Joe     weather nonadult false Another Dull Gray Day text blog weather 162 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 1 0 1501426 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Slow-Mover/BLOG/1500816/96364.html Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:07:14 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Slow-Mover/BLOG/1500816/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-18T11:07:14Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community weather nonadult false Slow Mover video blog weather 64 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1500816 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_KCI-Registers-Snow/BLOG/1499874/96364.html Good Afternoon Everyone! Yesterday I wrote a blog and said in it we'd see mostly rain for the rest of the storms duration(I was wrong)...well if you live in Kansas City you probably woke up to a little bit of snow!  It was from the same storm that brough 7+ inches of snow to parts of Kansas yesterday and dropped 1.2" of snow at KCI airport this morning.  Totals around the metro were around an inch or less in most spots...and most of it melted by lunchtime from the rain that moved back in.  For the rest of the afternoon we'll see rain continuing to rotate around the low into the downtown area. This rain has caused some flooding concerns and lead to the flood warnings to be issued for several counties on the Missouri side of the state line. Rain should linger through the rest of the evening and into tomorrow as well for the metro, but should decrease more Wednesday into a drizzle.  Temperatures should remain fairly close to what they were today, with a very small change from the low to the high.  I'm forecasting mid 30s tonight and low 40s tomorrow for highs.  The best chance for anymore snow from this system will be tied closer to the center of circulation where dynamics are better for producing snow (since really no one has seen air that cold when it did snow) which should be south and east of Kansas City. Tomorrow evening we'll finally see this storm moving away to the northeast which means by Thursday we could see a little bit of sunshine (stressing on the word little).  Temperatures will be warmer Thursday as well and Friday and Saturday will follow suit. Our weekend looks dry right now with temperatures in the 50s for Saturday and Sunday.  Our next storm should move in early next week, with temperatures cooling back down to the 40s and possibly 30s by next Tuesday afternoon.  If the rain lingers into Tuesday we may see a switch over to snow as colder air filters in behind the next system.  Even though we haven't officially started winter...the forecast (at least for a few of the days) certainly feels like it! Hang in there everyone...and if it makes you feel any better, do what I did this morning...I got to make a nice snowball to chuck at my fiancee when he was least expecting it! [image]-Karli Good Afternoon Everyone! Yesterday I wrote a blog and said in it we'd see mostly rain for the rest of the storms duration(I was wrong)...well if you live in Kansas City you probably woke up to a little bit of snow!  It was from the same storm that brough 7+ inches of snow to parts of Kansas yesterday and dropped 1.2" of snow at KCI airport this morning.  Totals around the metro were around an inch or less in most spots...and most of it melted by lunchtime from the rain that moved back in.  For the rest of the afternoon we'll see rain continuing to rotate around the low into the downtown area. This rain has caused some flooding concerns and lead to the flood warnings to be issued for several counties on the Missouri side of the state line. Rain should linger through the rest of the evening and into tomorrow as well for the metro, but should decrease more Wednesday into a drizzle.  Temperatures should remain fairly close to what they were today, with a very small change from the low to the high.  I'm forecasting mid 30s tonight and low 40s tomorrow for highs.  The best chance for anymore snow from this system will be tied closer to the center of circulation where dynamics are better for producing snow (since really no one has seen air that cold when it did snow) which should be south and east of Kansas City. Tomorrow evening we'll finally see this storm moving away to the northeast which means by Thursday we could see a little bit of sunshine (stressing on the word little).  Temperatures will be warmer Thursday as well and Friday and Saturday will follow suit. Our weekend looks dry right now with temperatures in the 50s for Saturday and Sunday.  Our next storm should move in early next week, with temperatures cooling back down to the 40s and possibly 30s by next Tuesday afternoon.  If the rain lingers into Tuesday we may see a switch over to snow as colder air filters in behind the next system.  Even though we haven't officially started winter...the forecast (at least for a few of the days) certainly feels like it! Hang in there everyone...and if it makes you feel any better, do what I did this morning...I got to make a nice snowball to chuck at my fiancee when he was least expecting it! [image]-Karli Tue, 17 Nov 2009 20:24:46 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_KCI-Registers-Snow/BLOG/1499874/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-17T20:24:46Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Good Afternoon Everyone! Yesterday I wrote a blog and said in it we'd see mostly rain for the rest of the storms duration(I was wrong)...well if you live in Kansas City you probably woke up to a little bit of snow!  It was from the same storm that brough 7+ inches of snow to parts of Kansas yesterday and dropped 1.2" of snow at KCI airport this morning.  Totals around the metro were around an inch or less in most spots...and most of it melted by lunchtime from the rain that moved back in.  For the rest of the afternoon we'll see rain continuing to rotate around the low into the downtown area. This rain has caused some flooding concerns and lead to the flood warnings to be issued for several counties on the Missouri side of the state line. Rain should linger through the rest of the evening and into tomorrow as well for the metro, but should decrease more Wednesday into a drizzle.  Temperatures should remain fairly close to what they were today, with a very small change from the low to the high.  I'm forecasting mid 30s tonight and low 40s tomorrow for highs.  The best chance for anymore snow from this system will be tied closer to the center of circulation where dynamics are better for producing snow (since really no one has seen air that cold when it did snow) which should be south and east of Kansas City. Tomorrow evening we'll finally see this storm moving away to the northeast which means by Thursday we could see a little bit of sunshine (stressing on the word little).  Temperatures will be warmer Thursday as well and Friday and Saturday will follow suit. Our weekend looks dry right now with temperatures in the 50s for Saturday and Sunday.  Our next storm should move in early next week, with temperatures cooling back down to the 40s and possibly 30s by next Tuesday afternoon.  If the rain lingers into Tuesday we may see a switch over to snow as colder air filters in behind the next system.  Even though we haven't officially started winter...the forecast (at least for a few of the days) certainly feels like it! Hang in there everyone...and if it makes you feel any better, do what I did this morning...I got to make a nice snowball to chuck at my fiancee when he was least expecting it! [image]-Karli weather nonadult false KCI Registers Snow text blog weather 155 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1499874 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Morning-Snow/BLOG/1499239/96364.html Tue, 17 Nov 2009 11:08:29 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Morning-Snow/BLOG/1499239/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-17T11:08:29Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community weather nonadult false Morning Snow video blog weather 211 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 1 0 1499239 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Snow-for-Some/BLOG/1498292/96364.html Good Afternoon everyone! Snow has been falling since early this morning in parts of the viewing area...with the heaviest amounts across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas.  We've also had reports of sleet and snow mixing in with the rain around the Kansas City metro and also south around Shawnee and Olathe.  Snow totals so far have been pretty impressive along the Kansas and Nebraska border, with a few spots already picking up seven inches of snow! Here are some totals through 1pm: Morrill, Baileyville, Beattie, Marysville, KS; : 7" Fairview, KS: 6" Highland, Eureka, KS: 5" Fairfax, MO: 3" Concordia, KS; Maryville, MO: 2" St. Joseph, MO: 1.5" Most of these totals, as you can see, are heavier on the Kansas side where the air was cooler under the rotating storm.  The Missouri side saw mostly a cold rain, with some sleet mixed in.  KCI airport had some light snow falling around 9-10 a.m. but nothing was sticking to the ground when I called them at that time.  This storm should linger around the plains for the next 24-36 hours before it finally moves out to the north.  I don't expect snow back in the forecast with this storm tomorrow, just a chilly rain/mist/drizzle as it meanders around the plains. This will be our first official snow for the season, exactly one day later than last year's first snow date!  This brings us back to reality as far as our weather is concerned.  After a very mild first half of November we're reminded that we are approaching winter, and it's that time of the year to prepare for snow, cold temperatures, ice, etc.  November 18th is Winter Weather Awareness Day.  We'll detail more about winter safety on Wednesday. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your day, chilly rain/sleet/snow and all! -Karli   Good Afternoon everyone! Snow has been falling since early this morning in parts of the viewing area...with the heaviest amounts across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas.  We've also had reports of sleet and snow mixing in with the rain around the Kansas City metro and also south around Shawnee and Olathe.  Snow totals so far have been pretty impressive along the Kansas and Nebraska border, with a few spots already picking up seven inches of snow! Here are some totals through 1pm: Morrill, Baileyville, Beattie, Marysville, KS; : 7" Fairview, KS: 6" Highland, Eureka, KS: 5" Fairfax, MO: 3" Concordia, KS; Maryville, MO: 2" St. Joseph, MO: 1.5" Most of these totals, as you can see, are heavier on the Kansas side where the air was cooler under the rotating storm.  The Missouri side saw mostly a cold rain, with some sleet mixed in.  KCI airport had some light snow falling around 9-10 a.m. but nothing was sticking to the ground when I called them at that time.  This storm should linger around the plains for the next 24-36 hours before it finally moves out to the north.  I don't expect snow back in the forecast with this storm tomorrow, just a chilly rain/mist/drizzle as it meanders around the plains. This will be our first official snow for the season, exactly one day later than last year's first snow date!  This brings us back to reality as far as our weather is concerned.  After a very mild first half of November we're reminded that we are approaching winter, and it's that time of the year to prepare for snow, cold temperatures, ice, etc.  November 18th is Winter Weather Awareness Day.  We'll detail more about winter safety on Wednesday. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your day, chilly rain/sleet/snow and all! -Karli   Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:24:38 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Snow-for-Some/BLOG/1498292/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-16T20:24:38Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Good Afternoon everyone! Snow has been falling since early this morning in parts of the viewing area...with the heaviest amounts across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas.  We've also had reports of sleet and snow mixing in with the rain around the Kansas City metro and also south around Shawnee and Olathe.  Snow totals so far have been pretty impressive along the Kansas and Nebraska border, with a few spots already picking up seven inches of snow! Here are some totals through 1pm: Morrill, Baileyville, Beattie, Marysville, KS; : 7" Fairview, KS: 6" Highland, Eureka, KS: 5" Fairfax, MO: 3" Concordia, KS; Maryville, MO: 2" St. Joseph, MO: 1.5" Most of these totals, as you can see, are heavier on the Kansas side where the air was cooler under the rotating storm.  The Missouri side saw mostly a cold rain, with some sleet mixed in.  KCI airport had some light snow falling around 9-10 a.m. but nothing was sticking to the ground when I called them at that time.  This storm should linger around the plains for the next 24-36 hours before it finally moves out to the north.  I don't expect snow back in the forecast with this storm tomorrow, just a chilly rain/mist/drizzle as it meanders around the plains. This will be our first official snow for the season, exactly one day later than last year's first snow date!  This brings us back to reality as far as our weather is concerned.  After a very mild first half of November we're reminded that we are approaching winter, and it's that time of the year to prepare for snow, cold temperatures, ice, etc.  November 18th is Winter Weather Awareness Day.  We'll detail more about winter safety on Wednesday. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your day, chilly rain/sleet/snow and all! -Karli   weather nonadult false Snow for Some!!! text blog weather 238 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1498292 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Now-The-RainAnything-Else/BLOG/1496585/96364.html ++++++++++9:45 Update++++++++++ Still a very complex situation...on the one hand you can see how it can snow...on the other hand...th eTopeka sounding tonight revealed at least a 4000' layer of "warm" air above the surface...which will get eroded from west to east tomorrow...however closer to the State Line this erosion may not happen till later tomorrow AM...which coincedently is when most of the precip will be north of KC leaving the metro with the remnants of very light precip...perhaps some flakes mixed in (?) still up in the air...then the back side of the storm starts to weaken...which would be moving over us later tomorrow night and early TUE AM... Radar out west looks pretty puny right now...NWS in Hastings is reporting snow sticking to grassy surfaces only with road temps still well into the 40s...but that's expected...closer to home the showers certainly look healthier in NE KS moving northwards and NWards around the eveloping storm... Basically I'm going 2-4" for the NW tip of MO extending SWards towards Manahattan...there could be an isolated heavier amount...surrounding that area is an under 2" band...to north of St Joe...again this is NOT set in stone...DH/KR will have their hands full tomorrow AM figuring this stuff out... Something else that has caught my attention is the drier low level air working into NW MO...this air, as the precip falls into it, will cool down even more...also of note is the models overforecasting the QPF of this storm at least thus far... +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Good afternoon and thanks for spending a few minutes on the blog with me this crummy, yucky...Sunday afternoon...as things thus far are going according to plan with the rainfall and the falling temperatures...our midnight high was 49 degrees but we've been dropping all morning...and now are @ 40 as of 2PM...with rain all over the place that should last for the rest of the afternoon...so far in the metro rainfall totals are near about .33" and areas from Sedalia to Clinton to Nevada and Chanute have had 1-2.5" of rainfall with thunder earlier this AM...just a miserable November afternoon overall... The winds are drying to bring in drier air from the NE dewpoints have dropped to the 20s in IA this afternoon and as the rainfall has encountered the drier air being brought in some of the rain evaporates and cools the temperatures down...that's why we've seen the falling temperatures today...and this was expected yesterday and was in the forecast...and this process may erode the temperatures a bit more over the next 24 hours... Our storm is now really taking shape...and has produced a nice little 6-12" snowstorm in the Rockies...it's now snowing moderately @ Goodland, KS...where winter storm warnings are in effect for parts of western KS from Garden City northwards into SW NE...you can see a moderate to heavy snow band setting up out there now...so the aerial extent of the snow may not be large...some areas have already had 3-6" of snow... So where is our storm now...spinning away in N NM...the water vapor loop shows it well...and as you look at it a dry slot of sorts is going to move into the region this evening cutting off the significant rainfall and leaving us with a lot of drizzle/mist that we'll deal with for the rest of the night with temps near 40 degrees or so...as our storm evolves and intensifies nearby and just too our south....the moisture on the backside of it (commahead) will move on top of us tomorrow allowing the rain to once again increase somewhat in intensity especially for areas N/NW of KC...last night I was focusing the heaviest of the precip for the storm overall to the SE and N of the metro and so far that call looks good... The storm tomorrow is forecasted to pass to the South of the metro, the core near the Nevada area then by TUE AM near West Plains and by TUE PM up south of St Louis and by WED AM near St Louis (as it slows even more)  before being kecked out to near Chicago by THU AM and as the storm pulls away and we start to at least see some sunshine on THU...we should moderate and by FRI we should warm up well into the 50s assuming we get enough sunshine... Now onto the snow scenario...the latest data is showing the chance of snow increasing for areas up to the N/NW of the metro as a matter of fact the NAM is actually producing some accumulating wet snow for the NW tip of MO and NE KS...take a look at the snowfall forecast from the NAM [image]   Now the GFS... [image]         [image] Getting more into the NAM at least...looking at various other products...and it appears that the bulk of this snow is supposed to come down tomorrow AM into early tomorrow afternoon...as it's grabbing onto a mesoscale band of precip and wrapping in into air cold enough to support snow...I always get nervous when a model tries to pinpoint some small mesoscale feature so I won't bite hard at it at this point...it should be noted the the GFS has a similar look just closer to the KS/NE border area north of Topeka and Manhattan...and it's certainly possible tomorrow night that there may be some flakes from Emporia to west of KC (near Topeka) upwards towards far N MO...but please don't put that in stone yet...lets see how the atmosphere responds as our storm gets closer...Winter Weather Advisories are now up for far NW MO...from St Joe NWards to the NE/IA border...and at this point this makes sense to me... Here's something interesting...we haven't had one night yet in NOV with temperatures near freezing...the lowest being 36...in October we had one day @ 32 and one day @ 31...still no 32 degree lows in the forecast for awhile...and through yesterday we are close to 10 degrees above average for the month... We'll update the blog later this evening as new information rolls in and I get a look at the 6PM soundings... Joe   ++++++++++9:45 Update++++++++++ Still a very complex situation...on the one hand you can see how it can snow...on the other hand...th eTopeka sounding tonight revealed at least a 4000' layer of "warm" air above the surface...which will get eroded from west to east tomorrow...however closer to the State Line this erosion may not happen till later tomorrow AM...which coincedently is when most of the precip will be north of KC leaving the metro with the remnants of very light precip...perhaps some flakes mixed in (?) still up in the air...then the back side of the storm starts to weaken...which would be moving over us later tomorrow night and early TUE AM... Radar out west looks pretty puny right now...NWS in Hastings is reporting snow sticking to grassy surfaces only with road temps still well into the 40s...but that's expected...closer to home the showers certainly look healthier in NE KS moving northwards and NWards around the eveloping storm... Basically I'm going 2-4" for the NW tip of MO extending SWards towards Manahattan...there could be an isolated heavier amount...surrounding that area is an under 2" band...to north of St Joe...again this is NOT set in stone...DH/KR will have their hands full tomorrow AM figuring this stuff out... Something else that has caught my attention is the drier low level air working into NW MO...this air, as the precip falls into it, will cool down even more...also of note is the models overforecasting the QPF of this storm at least thus far... +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Good afternoon and thanks for spending a few minutes on the blog with me this crummy, yucky...Sunday afternoon...as things thus far are going according to plan with the rainfall and the falling temperatures...our midnight high was 49 degrees but we've been dropping all morning...and now are @ 40 as of 2PM...with rain all over the place that should last for the rest of the afternoon...so far in the metro rainfall totals are near about .33" and areas from Sedalia to Clinton to Nevada and Chanute have had 1-2.5" of rainfall with thunder earlier this AM...just a miserable November afternoon overall... The winds are drying to bring in drier air from the NE dewpoints have dropped to the 20s in IA this afternoon and as the rainfall has encountered the drier air being brought in some of the rain evaporates and cools the temperatures down...that's why we've seen the falling temperatures today...and this was expected yesterday and was in the forecast...and this process may erode the temperatures a bit more over the next 24 hours... Our storm is now really taking shape...and has produced a nice little 6-12" snowstorm in the Rockies...it's now snowing moderately @ Goodland, KS...where winter storm warnings are in effect for parts of western KS from Garden City northwards into SW NE...you can see a moderate to heavy snow band setting up out there now...so the aerial extent of the snow may not be large...some areas have already had 3-6" of snow... So where is our storm now...spinning away in N NM...the water vapor loop shows it well...and as you look at it a dry slot of sorts is going to move into the region this evening cutting off the significant rainfall and leaving us with a lot of drizzle/mist that we'll deal with for the rest of the night with temps near 40 degrees or so...as our storm evolves and intensifies nearby and just too our south....the moisture on the backside of it (commahead) will move on top of us tomorrow allowing the rain to once again increase somewhat in intensity especially for areas N/NW of KC...last night I was focusing the heaviest of the precip for the storm overall to the SE and N of the metro and so far that call looks good... The storm tomorrow is forecasted to pass to the South of the metro, the core near the Nevada area then by TUE AM near West Plains and by TUE PM up south of St Louis and by WED AM near St Louis (as it slows even more)  before being kecked out to near Chicago by THU AM and as the storm pulls away and we start to at least see some sunshine on THU...we should moderate and by FRI we should warm up well into the 50s assuming we get enough sunshine... Now onto the snow scenario...the latest data is showing the chance of snow increasing for areas up to the N/NW of the metro as a matter of fact the NAM is actually producing some accumulating wet snow for the NW tip of MO and NE KS...take a look at the snowfall forecast from the NAM [image]   Now the GFS... [image]         [image] Getting more into the NAM at least...looking at various other products...and it appears that the bulk of this snow is supposed to come down tomorrow AM into early tomorrow afternoon...as it's grabbing onto a mesoscale band of precip and wrapping in into air cold enough to support snow...I always get nervous when a model tries to pinpoint some small mesoscale feature so I won't bite hard at it at this point...it should be noted the the GFS has a similar look just closer to the KS/NE border area north of Topeka and Manhattan...and it's certainly possible tomorrow night that there may be some flakes from Emporia to west of KC (near Topeka) upwards towards far N MO...but please don't put that in stone yet...lets see how the atmosphere responds as our storm gets closer...Winter Weather Advisories are now up for far NW MO...from St Joe NWards to the NE/IA border...and at this point this makes sense to me... Here's something interesting...we haven't had one night yet in NOV with temperatures near freezing...the lowest being 36...in October we had one day @ 32 and one day @ 31...still no 32 degree lows in the forecast for awhile...and through yesterday we are close to 10 degrees above average for the month... We'll update the blog later this evening as new information rolls in and I get a look at the 6PM soundings... Joe   Sun, 15 Nov 2009 21:05:29 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Now-The-RainAnything-Else/BLOG/1496585/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-15T21:05:29Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community ++++++++++9:45 Update++++++++++ Still a very complex situation...on the one hand you can see how it can snow...on the other hand...th eTopeka sounding tonight revealed at least a 4000' layer of "warm" air above the surface...which will get eroded from west to east tomorrow...however closer to the State Line this erosion may not happen till later tomorrow AM...which coincedently is when most of the precip will be north of KC leaving the metro with the remnants of very light precip...perhaps some flakes mixed in (?) still up in the air...then the back side of the storm starts to weaken...which would be moving over us later tomorrow night and early TUE AM... Radar out west looks pretty puny right now...NWS in Hastings is reporting snow sticking to grassy surfaces only with road temps still well into the 40s...but that's expected...closer to home the showers certainly look healthier in NE KS moving northwards and NWards around the eveloping storm... Basically I'm going 2-4" for the NW tip of MO extending SWards towards Manahattan...there could be an isolated heavier amount...surrounding that area is an under 2" band...to north of St Joe...again this is NOT set in stone...DH/KR will have their hands full tomorrow AM figuring this stuff out... Something else that has caught my attention is the drier low level air working into NW MO...this air, as the precip falls into it, will cool down even more...also of note is the models overforecasting the QPF of this storm at least thus far... +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Good afternoon and thanks for spending a few minutes on the blog with me this crummy, yucky...Sunday afternoon...as things thus far are going according to plan with the rainfall and the falling temperatures...our midnight high was 49 degrees but we've been dropping all morning...and now are @ 40 as of 2PM...with rain all over the place that should last for the rest of the afternoon...so far in the metro rainfall totals are near about .33" and areas from Sedalia to Clinton to Nevada and Chanute have had 1-2.5" of rainfall with thunder earlier this AM...just a miserable November afternoon overall... The winds are drying to bring in drier air from the NE dewpoints have dropped to the 20s in IA this afternoon and as the rainfall has encountered the drier air being brought in some of the rain evaporates and cools the temperatures down...that's why we've seen the falling temperatures today...and this was expected yesterday and was in the forecast...and this process may erode the temperatures a bit more over the next 24 hours... Our storm is now really taking shape...and has produced a nice little 6-12" snowstorm in the Rockies...it's now snowing moderately @ Goodland, KS...where winter storm warnings are in effect for parts of western KS from Garden City northwards into SW NE...you can see a moderate to heavy snow band setting up out there now...so the aerial extent of the snow may not be large...some areas have already had 3-6" of snow... So where is our storm now...spinning away in N NM...the water vapor loop shows it well...and as you look at it a dry slot of sorts is going to move into the region this evening cutting off the significant rainfall and leaving us with a lot of drizzle/mist that we'll deal with for the rest of the night with temps near 40 degrees or so...as our storm evolves and intensifies nearby and just too our south....the moisture on the backside of it (commahead) will move on top of us tomorrow allowing the rain to once again increase somewhat in intensity especially for areas N/NW of KC...last night I was focusing the heaviest of the precip for the storm overall to the SE and N of the metro and so far that call looks good... The storm tomorrow is forecasted to pass to the South of the metro, the core near the Nevada area then by TUE AM near West Plains and by TUE PM up south of St Louis and by WED AM near St Louis (as it slows even more)  before being kecked out to near Chicago by THU AM and as the storm pulls away and we start to at least see some sunshine on THU...we should moderate and by FRI we should warm up well into the 50s assuming we get enough sunshine... Now onto the snow scenario...the latest data is showing the chance of snow increasing for areas up to the N/NW of the metro as a matter of fact the NAM is actually producing some accumulating wet snow for the NW tip of MO and NE KS...take a look at the snowfall forecast from the NAM [image]   Now the GFS... [image]         [image] Getting more into the NAM at least...looking at various other products...and it appears that the bulk of this snow is supposed to come down tomorrow AM into early tomorrow afternoon...as it's grabbing onto a mesoscale band of precip and wrapping in into air cold enough to support snow...I always get nervous when a model tries to pinpoint some small mesoscale feature so I won't bite hard at it at this point...it should be noted the the GFS has a similar look just closer to the KS/NE border area north of Topeka and Manhattan...and it's certainly possible tomorrow night that there may be some flakes from Emporia to west of KC (near Topeka) upwards towards far N MO...but please don't put that in stone yet...lets see how the atmosphere responds as our storm gets closer...Winter Weather Advisories are now up for far NW MO...from St Joe NWards to the NE/IA border...and at this point this makes sense to me... Here's something interesting...we haven't had one night yet in NOV with temperatures near freezing...the lowest being 36...in October we had one day @ 32 and one day @ 31...still no 32 degree lows in the forecast for awhile...and through yesterday we are close to 10 degrees above average for the month... We'll update the blog later this evening as new information rolls in and I get a look at the 6PM soundings... Joe   weather nonadult false Now The Rain...Anything Else? text blog weather 572 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 3 0 1496585 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_The-Gray-Has-Arrived/BLOG/1495462/96364.html ++++++++++10PM UPDATE++++++++++ Showers/areas of light rain are streaking to the ENE from the I-35 corridor from near Olathe SWards to Emporia... Temps are steadying out this evening as the cold air advection has just about stopped...clouds should keep temps from falling more than about another 5 degrees or so...tomorrow with rain in the region I anticipate a slow falling to the temps from AM highs in the mid 40s down to the lower 40s in the PM hours... The newest NAM is again just a pinch colder and would have snow as close as the Emporia area...but as that occurs and the storm wraps up even more...somewhat milder air aloft moves in from the E/SE...for the KC area at least...but it's getting close...and I'm concerned that someone SW of KC could see an accumulating snow...right now the odds of that happening while low are centered more towards the Emporia area SWards...and while our weather gets real crummy for a few days NE may be in the 50s...so the storm won't tap into any cold air from the north...but the intensity of it will create it's own cold air... One wildcard is this...IF convection can develop...that could be an issue for a more widespread turnover or mixture...maybe sleet(?) sometime later MON or early TUE...and that would include KC...this storm won't be figured out until it gets closer...so lets watch this closely... Back to the PM blog....+++++++++++++++++++++++++ Thanks so much for stopping by...I wish I had some better changes to tell you about...but I really don't. A prolonged period of gray weather is expected that should last through at least WED...with hopefully sunshine by THU of next week...it is what it is...perhaps a bit more tolerable now that it's mid NOV as opposed to OCT...but in the end it's about the same type of weather... There hasn't been any real significant changes in the model data...although one can't help but notice that the atmosphere seems colder on both the GFS and the NAM...rain timing and intensity is highest tomorrow into early tomorrow evening (especially tomorrow PM) then again TUE...but the amounts on the second wave should be much lighter compared to the rainfall tomorrow... Concerning the totals...here is the NAM forecast... [image]   Now take a look at the GFS forecat... [image] The DARKEST GREEN represents a .25" contour...and it goes up .25" from there with each new color...the GFS is healthier with the totals...over 1.5"...while the NAM is less so and showing the heaviest towards the SE of KC...and I lean towards it's direction... The front as of 1PM has cleared the area...notice ahead of the front how temps have warmed to near 70 in S MO...behind the front temps are in the 40s to near 50... [image] Click on any image to enlarge it...then click on "View Enlarged Image" One of the main issues with the forecast is the temperature angle...I still think temps will stay near or above 40 degrees for about the entirety of this storm for us...the MOS data is, IMHO...wayyyy to cold bringing temps MON & TUE AM down to near freezing...dewpoints to the NNE of here...which is where the storm will eventually start to suck in air from are in the 35-40 range...also our thicknesses are forecast to stay above critical values for the duration...so the snow chance is still not high in my thought process, despite the colder look to the modeling... We're still looking at a snowstorm for SW KS and NW OK...trailing southwards into parts of the TX Panhandle...also another impressive snow is forecast for parts of CO...with the Denver area expecting up to 12" and areas in the foothills 12"+...the ski resorts must be loving this (those that are open) and there are very strong signs that even more snow is expected for the ski areas over the next two weeks...so it looks like a HUGE opening for the weekend of Thanksgiving! Longer range thoughts...there are signs showing up today...as well as the last couple of days of at least some Canadian air returning to the US towards or after Thanksgiving...it probably would be fleeting...and actually typical of later NOV...but there are signs of a realignment showing up in the upper air maps...timing of course is a huge question...but at least some of the cold air (extreme) that's been on the other side of the world for the last several weeks...may start bleeding towards Canada later this month... WE'LL BE AIRING OUR WINTER FORECAST ON FRIDAY DURING THE 9PM NEWSCAST...I'M HOPING TO GET A WEB VERSION FOR YOU ON THE BLOG BEFORE WE AIR IT...SO CHECK IN OFTEN STARTING WEDNESDAY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...again I gave some of my feelings a couple of days ago... Joe ++++++++++10PM UPDATE++++++++++ Showers/areas of light rain are streaking to the ENE from the I-35 corridor from near Olathe SWards to Emporia... Temps are steadying out this evening as the cold air advection has just about stopped...clouds should keep temps from falling more than about another 5 degrees or so...tomorrow with rain in the region I anticipate a slow falling to the temps from AM highs in the mid 40s down to the lower 40s in the PM hours... The newest NAM is again just a pinch colder and would have snow as close as the Emporia area...but as that occurs and the storm wraps up even more...somewhat milder air aloft moves in from the E/SE...for the KC area at least...but it's getting close...and I'm concerned that someone SW of KC could see an accumulating snow...right now the odds of that happening while low are centered more towards the Emporia area SWards...and while our weather gets real crummy for a few days NE may be in the 50s...so the storm won't tap into any cold air from the north...but the intensity of it will create it's own cold air... One wildcard is this...IF convection can develop...that could be an issue for a more widespread turnover or mixture...maybe sleet(?) sometime later MON or early TUE...and that would include KC...this storm won't be figured out until it gets closer...so lets watch this closely... Back to the PM blog....+++++++++++++++++++++++++ Thanks so much for stopping by...I wish I had some better changes to tell you about...but I really don't. A prolonged period of gray weather is expected that should last through at least WED...with hopefully sunshine by THU of next week...it is what it is...perhaps a bit more tolerable now that it's mid NOV as opposed to OCT...but in the end it's about the same type of weather... There hasn't been any real significant changes in the model data...although one can't help but notice that the atmosphere seems colder on both the GFS and the NAM...rain timing and intensity is highest tomorrow into early tomorrow evening (especially tomorrow PM) then again TUE...but the amounts on the second wave should be much lighter compared to the rainfall tomorrow... Concerning the totals...here is the NAM forecast... [image]   Now take a look at the GFS forecat... [image] The DARKEST GREEN represents a .25" contour...and it goes up .25" from there with each new color...the GFS is healthier with the totals...over 1.5"...while the NAM is less so and showing the heaviest towards the SE of KC...and I lean towards it's direction... The front as of 1PM has cleared the area...notice ahead of the front how temps have warmed to near 70 in S MO...behind the front temps are in the 40s to near 50... [image] Click on any image to enlarge it...then click on "View Enlarged Image" One of the main issues with the forecast is the temperature angle...I still think temps will stay near or above 40 degrees for about the entirety of this storm for us...the MOS data is, IMHO...wayyyy to cold bringing temps MON & TUE AM down to near freezing...dewpoints to the NNE of here...which is where the storm will eventually start to suck in air from are in the 35-40 range...also our thicknesses are forecast to stay above critical values for the duration...so the snow chance is still not high in my thought process, despite the colder look to the modeling... We're still looking at a snowstorm for SW KS and NW OK...trailing southwards into parts of the TX Panhandle...also another impressive snow is forecast for parts of CO...with the Denver area expecting up to 12" and areas in the foothills 12"+...the ski resorts must be loving this (those that are open) and there are very strong signs that even more snow is expected for the ski areas over the next two weeks...so it looks like a HUGE opening for the weekend of Thanksgiving! Longer range thoughts...there are signs showing up today...as well as the last couple of days of at least some Canadian air returning to the US towards or after Thanksgiving...it probably would be fleeting...and actually typical of later NOV...but there are signs of a realignment showing up in the upper air maps...timing of course is a huge question...but at least some of the cold air (extreme) that's been on the other side of the world for the last several weeks...may start bleeding towards Canada later this month... WE'LL BE AIRING OUR WINTER FORECAST ON FRIDAY DURING THE 9PM NEWSCAST...I'M HOPING TO GET A WEB VERSION FOR YOU ON THE BLOG BEFORE WE AIR IT...SO CHECK IN OFTEN STARTING WEDNESDAY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...again I gave some of my feelings a couple of days ago... Joe Sat, 14 Nov 2009 20:00:24 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_The-Gray-Has-Arrived/BLOG/1495462/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-14T20:00:24Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community ++++++++++10PM UPDATE++++++++++ Showers/areas of light rain are streaking to the ENE from the I-35 corridor from near Olathe SWards to Emporia... Temps are steadying out this evening as the cold air advection has just about stopped...clouds should keep temps from falling more than about another 5 degrees or so...tomorrow with rain in the region I anticipate a slow falling to the temps from AM highs in the mid 40s down to the lower 40s in the PM hours... The newest NAM is again just a pinch colder and would have snow as close as the Emporia area...but as that occurs and the storm wraps up even more...somewhat milder air aloft moves in from the E/SE...for the KC area at least...but it's getting close...and I'm concerned that someone SW of KC could see an accumulating snow...right now the odds of that happening while low are centered more towards the Emporia area SWards...and while our weather gets real crummy for a few days NE may be in the 50s...so the storm won't tap into any cold air from the north...but the intensity of it will create it's own cold air... One wildcard is this...IF convection can develop...that could be an issue for a more widespread turnover or mixture...maybe sleet(?) sometime later MON or early TUE...and that would include KC...this storm won't be figured out until it gets closer...so lets watch this closely... Back to the PM blog....+++++++++++++++++++++++++ Thanks so much for stopping by...I wish I had some better changes to tell you about...but I really don't. A prolonged period of gray weather is expected that should last through at least WED...with hopefully sunshine by THU of next week...it is what it is...perhaps a bit more tolerable now that it's mid NOV as opposed to OCT...but in the end it's about the same type of weather... There hasn't been any real significant changes in the model data...although one can't help but notice that the atmosphere seems colder on both the GFS and the NAM...rain timing and intensity is highest tomorrow into early tomorrow evening (especially tomorrow PM) then again TUE...but the amounts on the second wave should be much lighter compared to the rainfall tomorrow... Concerning the totals...here is the NAM forecast... [image]   Now take a look at the GFS forecat... [image] The DARKEST GREEN represents a .25" contour...and it goes up .25" from there with each new color...the GFS is healthier with the totals...over 1.5"...while the NAM is less so and showing the heaviest towards the SE of KC...and I lean towards it's direction... The front as of 1PM has cleared the area...notice ahead of the front how temps have warmed to near 70 in S MO...behind the front temps are in the 40s to near 50... [image] Click on any image to enlarge it...then click on "View Enlarged Image" One of the main issues with the forecast is the temperature angle...I still think temps will stay near or above 40 degrees for about the entirety of this storm for us...the MOS data is, IMHO...wayyyy to cold bringing temps MON & TUE AM down to near freezing...dewpoints to the NNE of here...which is where the storm will eventually start to suck in air from are in the 35-40 range...also our thicknesses are forecast to stay above critical values for the duration...so the snow chance is still not high in my thought process, despite the colder look to the modeling... We're still looking at a snowstorm for SW KS and NW OK...trailing southwards into parts of the TX Panhandle...also another impressive snow is forecast for parts of CO...with the Denver area expecting up to 12" and areas in the foothills 12"+...the ski resorts must be loving this (those that are open) and there are very strong signs that even more snow is expected for the ski areas over the next two weeks...so it looks like a HUGE opening for the weekend of Thanksgiving! Longer range thoughts...there are signs showing up today...as well as the last couple of days of at least some Canadian air returning to the US towards or after Thanksgiving...it probably would be fleeting...and actually typical of later NOV...but there are signs of a realignment showing up in the upper air maps...timing of course is a huge question...but at least some of the cold air (extreme) that's been on the other side of the world for the last several weeks...may start bleeding towards Canada later this month... WE'LL BE AIRING OUR WINTER FORECAST ON FRIDAY DURING THE 9PM NEWSCAST...I'M HOPING TO GET A WEB VERSION FOR YOU ON THE BLOG BEFORE WE AIR IT...SO CHECK IN OFTEN STARTING WEDNESDAY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...again I gave some of my feelings a couple of days ago... Joe weather nonadult false The Gray Has Arrived text blog weather 185 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 1 0 1495462 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Lots-To-Talk-About/BLOG/1494412/96364.html Very interesting weather needless to say after such a nice NOV stretch...as temperatures for the month are now approaching 10 degrees above average...but it will stop there...and start to come down over the next 7 days as, from a temperature standpoint, a drop is expected and once the drop occurs there will probably be very little day to day change in the temperatures which essentially means lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs 40-45 or so all the way through WED of next week...throw in a few periods of showers and rain...and it's going to remind folks of the weather last month again...although now that it's November, perhaps it won't hurt as bad this time through... The Water Vapor loop shows a lot of interesting features...the remnants of Ida are spinning off the East Coast...Ida is responsible for 5 US deaths I believe in the Mid-Atlantic area (winds have been clocked near hurricane force yesterday evening along the coastline...and parts of eastern VA picked up over 10" of rainfall ...you can also see all the tropical and sub-tropical moisture streaming out of the eastern Pacific Ocean...that's the moisture that we've been dealing with for the last two days...and finally you can see the beginning of our storm system out towards the state of Washington...this storm will be the main player, as mentioned, in our weather for the next 5 days... On the surface side there is a cold front moving our way...albeit very slowly...and should move through the area after midnight tonight...as it does so the warm air that we've enjoyed will become a thing of the past...as the 60s are replaced by 40s that once they arrive will be about as good as it gets... [image]   The moisture to our south is neglible...normally if the moisture was thicker I'd be more concerned about more rainfall over the weekend...and while there may be a few sprinkles tomorrow...the amounts should be very light...however as the lift increases on SUN...the rain will also start increasing...if you take a look at the latest soundings from TX...it's VERY skimpy, moisture wise, above the surface...so at least initially we'll rely on the moisture that the storm brings with it to soup things up...that's always concerning to me...by as the storm edges closer the air aloft will be fanning outwards (difluence) and this means that the air below it rises...so it won't take much moisture to create rainfall...and I'm banking on this for later SUN into early MON AM...this may be the "heaviest" part of the storm... The storm then will enter the plains...cut-off...and meander around for a couple of days...this will result in occasional batches of cold rain...and almost more noteworthy...low dark clouds...which the GFS is showing very well...take a look at this meteogram...which is a way of looking at various parts of the atmosphere...the green on top represents moisture...and you can see it's thick and abundant below 6000 feet through the middle of next week... [image] Remember to to click on the graphic and then "View Enlarged Image". This is actually a real neat way to see various model parameters (especially moisture) that may lurk between normal model layers...in a way it's like looking at forecast soundings for certain parameters without all the confusing lines... The main question this evening is then HOW LONG does this storm linger...and while a slower and slower approach is best...I'm not sure...take a look at how the models are handling things by 6AM WED... [image] Again click on the image and the enlarge it...the left 2 are the GFS operational (top) and the ensembles (bottom) the right 2 are the EURO operational (top) and the impossible to find ensembles (bottom) basically they show about the same thing...although my feeling is that the operational EURO is wayyy to far east with the storm on WED...I think it will be closer to us...however sensible weather wise there really is no dramatic change in what we would experience...something to think about...sometimes these things get so wrapped up that dry air entrains into the storms from the SW...this will need to be watched, and the models won't be able to figure that aspect out...because if this happens...it's possible that we can see some significant breaks in the clouds for awhile...on TUE and WED...that though will be dealt with over the weekend... Also note the next piece of energy diving into the west coast...that should be the energy to kick our soon to be storm out of here and let it be replaced by another faster moving storm...and the potential for more cold precip later next week... Meanwhile closer to the storms intensifying center later SUN...down towards SW KS and NW OK...there should be a changeover to heavy wet accumulating snow...with the potential of 6-12" of the white stuff down there...assuming the air chills down enough... Snow risk for our area is extremely low...I just don't see the atmosphere cooling down enough to support the creation of snowflakes...it needs to be watched...but again the best accumulating snows will be well away from here... Joe Very interesting weather needless to say after such a nice NOV stretch...as temperatures for the month are now approaching 10 degrees above average...but it will stop there...and start to come down over the next 7 days as, from a temperature standpoint, a drop is expected and once the drop occurs there will probably be very little day to day change in the temperatures which essentially means lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs 40-45 or so all the way through WED of next week...throw in a few periods of showers and rain...and it's going to remind folks of the weather last month again...although now that it's November, perhaps it won't hurt as bad this time through... The Water Vapor loop shows a lot of interesting features...the remnants of Ida are spinning off the East Coast...Ida is responsible for 5 US deaths I believe in the Mid-Atlantic area (winds have been clocked near hurricane force yesterday evening along the coastline...and parts of eastern VA picked up over 10" of rainfall ...you can also see all the tropical and sub-tropical moisture streaming out of the eastern Pacific Ocean...that's the moisture that we've been dealing with for the last two days...and finally you can see the beginning of our storm system out towards the state of Washington...this storm will be the main player, as mentioned, in our weather for the next 5 days... On the surface side there is a cold front moving our way...albeit very slowly...and should move through the area after midnight tonight...as it does so the warm air that we've enjoyed will become a thing of the past...as the 60s are replaced by 40s that once they arrive will be about as good as it gets... [image]   The moisture to our south is neglible...normally if the moisture was thicker I'd be more concerned about more rainfall over the weekend...and while there may be a few sprinkles tomorrow...the amounts should be very light...however as the lift increases on SUN...the rain will also start increasing...if you take a look at the latest soundings from TX...it's VERY skimpy, moisture wise, above the surface...so at least initially we'll rely on the moisture that the storm brings with it to soup things up...that's always concerning to me...by as the storm edges closer the air aloft will be fanning outwards (difluence) and this means that the air below it rises...so it won't take much moisture to create rainfall...and I'm banking on this for later SUN into early MON AM...this may be the "heaviest" part of the storm... The storm then will enter the plains...cut-off...and meander around for a couple of days...this will result in occasional batches of cold rain...and almost more noteworthy...low dark clouds...which the GFS is showing very well...take a look at this meteogram...which is a way of looking at various parts of the atmosphere...the green on top represents moisture...and you can see it's thick and abundant below 6000 feet through the middle of next week... [image] Remember to to click on the graphic and then "View Enlarged Image". This is actually a real neat way to see various model parameters (especially moisture) that may lurk between normal model layers...in a way it's like looking at forecast soundings for certain parameters without all the confusing lines... The main question this evening is then HOW LONG does this storm linger...and while a slower and slower approach is best...I'm not sure...take a look at how the models are handling things by 6AM WED... [image] Again click on the image and the enlarge it...the left 2 are the GFS operational (top) and the ensembles (bottom) the right 2 are the EURO operational (top) and the impossible to find ensembles (bottom) basically they show about the same thing...although my feeling is that the operational EURO is wayyy to far east with the storm on WED...I think it will be closer to us...however sensible weather wise there really is no dramatic change in what we would experience...something to think about...sometimes these things get so wrapped up that dry air entrains into the storms from the SW...this will need to be watched, and the models won't be able to figure that aspect out...because if this happens...it's possible that we can see some significant breaks in the clouds for awhile...on TUE and WED...that though will be dealt with over the weekend... Also note the next piece of energy diving into the west coast...that should be the energy to kick our soon to be storm out of here and let it be replaced by another faster moving storm...and the potential for more cold precip later next week... Meanwhile closer to the storms intensifying center later SUN...down towards SW KS and NW OK...there should be a changeover to heavy wet accumulating snow...with the potential of 6-12" of the white stuff down there...assuming the air chills down enough... Snow risk for our area is extremely low...I just don't see the atmosphere cooling down enough to support the creation of snowflakes...it needs to be watched...but again the best accumulating snows will be well away from here... Joe Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:10:19 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Lots-To-Talk-About/BLOG/1494412/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-13T21:10:19Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Very interesting weather needless to say after such a nice NOV stretch...as temperatures for the month are now approaching 10 degrees above average...but it will stop there...and start to come down over the next 7 days as, from a temperature standpoint, a drop is expected and once the drop occurs there will probably be very little day to day change in the temperatures which essentially means lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs 40-45 or so all the way through WED of next week...throw in a few periods of showers and rain...and it's going to remind folks of the weather last month again...although now that it's November, perhaps it won't hurt as bad this time through... The Water Vapor loop shows a lot of interesting features...the remnants of Ida are spinning off the East Coast...Ida is responsible for 5 US deaths I believe in the Mid-Atlantic area (winds have been clocked near hurricane force yesterday evening along the coastline...and parts of eastern VA picked up over 10" of rainfall ...you can also see all the tropical and sub-tropical moisture streaming out of the eastern Pacific Ocean...that's the moisture that we've been dealing with for the last two days...and finally you can see the beginning of our storm system out towards the state of Washington...this storm will be the main player, as mentioned, in our weather for the next 5 days... On the surface side there is a cold front moving our way...albeit very slowly...and should move through the area after midnight tonight...as it does so the warm air that we've enjoyed will become a thing of the past...as the 60s are replaced by 40s that once they arrive will be about as good as it gets... [image]   The moisture to our south is neglible...normally if the moisture was thicker I'd be more concerned about more rainfall over the weekend...and while there may be a few sprinkles tomorrow...the amounts should be very light...however as the lift increases on SUN...the rain will also start increasing...if you take a look at the latest soundings from TX...it's VERY skimpy, moisture wise, above the surface...so at least initially we'll rely on the moisture that the storm brings with it to soup things up...that's always concerning to me...by as the storm edges closer the air aloft will be fanning outwards (difluence) and this means that the air below it rises...so it won't take much moisture to create rainfall...and I'm banking on this for later SUN into early MON AM...this may be the "heaviest" part of the storm... The storm then will enter the plains...cut-off...and meander around for a couple of days...this will result in occasional batches of cold rain...and almost more noteworthy...low dark clouds...which the GFS is showing very well...take a look at this meteogram...which is a way of looking at various parts of the atmosphere...the green on top represents moisture...and you can see it's thick and abundant below 6000 feet through the middle of next week... [image] Remember to to click on the graphic and then "View Enlarged Image". This is actually a real neat way to see various model parameters (especially moisture) that may lurk between normal model layers...in a way it's like looking at forecast soundings for certain parameters without all the confusing lines... The main question this evening is then HOW LONG does this storm linger...and while a slower and slower approach is best...I'm not sure...take a look at how the models are handling things by 6AM WED... [image] Again click on the image and the enlarge it...the left 2 are the GFS operational (top) and the ensembles (bottom) the right 2 are the EURO operational (top) and the impossible to find ensembles (bottom) basically they show about the same thing...although my feeling is that the operational EURO is wayyy to far east with the storm on WED...I think it will be closer to us...however sensible weather wise there really is no dramatic change in what we would experience...something to think about...sometimes these things get so wrapped up that dry air entrains into the storms from the SW...this will need to be watched, and the models won't be able to figure that aspect out...because if this happens...it's possible that we can see some significant breaks in the clouds for awhile...on TUE and WED...that though will be dealt with over the weekend... Also note the next piece of energy diving into the west coast...that should be the energy to kick our soon to be storm out of here and let it be replaced by another faster moving storm...and the potential for more cold precip later next week... Meanwhile closer to the storms intensifying center later SUN...down towards SW KS and NW OK...there should be a changeover to heavy wet accumulating snow...with the potential of 6-12" of the white stuff down there...assuming the air chills down enough... Snow risk for our area is extremely low...I just don't see the atmosphere cooling down enough to support the creation of snowflakes...it needs to be watched...but again the best accumulating snows will be well away from here... Joe weather nonadult false Lot's To Talk About... text blog weather 161 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1494412 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Snow-For-Some-I-Think/BLOG/1492936/96364.html OUR WINTER FORECAST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THE 20TH...DURING THE 9PM SHOW...WITH POSSIBLE RE-AIRINGS THAT WEEKEND...WE'RE EXPECTING TO FILL ABOUT 6-8 MINUTES...personally I don't have a feel at all for this winter now...I could lean either way...but initital thoughts are a winter of extremes...with less than average snowfall...and above average precipitation...and temps that for the winter (DJF as a whole) are tilted to above average. I think I just told you too much...but really this is what I've been thinking for more than 2 months and I haven't seen a reason yet to alter those thoughts... Now before you get yourself worked up...I still have a tough time thinking that anyone in our viewing area will see any flakes... Good afternoon and thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weeather Blog...a lot to talk about after what has been a relatively dull last several weeks...as the Pacific energy is really going to kick start several storms that should have pretty important impacts on the weather in these parts...promising brief shots of cold air...more mild air...and seasonal air...along with some decent rainfall...and perhaps flooding rainfall in parks of the Ozarks...also a pretty gray eriod is heading our way again...so enjoy tomorrow...after that we kind of get into a gray rut for about 4+ days... A cold front will be moving into the region tomorrow night...so enjoy the mild and gusty south winds tomorrow...this front is the first stage of of declining weather...as it moves into OK moisture...dewpoints near 50...it will undercut that moisture...nelp create a lot of clouds tomorrow night and even the potential of some shower activity...and once those lower clouds form...it may be tough to scour them on SAT...with the potential for some additional sprinkles/lighter showers to move through...but at this point SAT should not be a total rainout...perhaps drippy at times...but OK...temps will certainly be cooler with readings only 50-55 I think... The developing storm that has all of our attention is still really just a big peice of jetstream energy in the Northern Pacific Ocean...here is a look at it... [image] This energy is going to turn into an impressive storm in the Desert SW on SUN...this then will continue to develop and tap into a lot of Gulf Moisture by early MON AM and create a lot of rain in the Plains and S Plains...as the storm intensifies it's likely to cool down the atmosphere in a swath towards the NW of the upper level low...so it's possible that yes it may snow with this storm...but since we're in the wrong place in relationship to the storm...the best chances of snow (a heavy wet type thing) would be well towards the W and perhaps well SW of the metro...for us the storm gets soooo wrapped up that it brings in wayyyy to much warm air above the surface...so while it's near 40 on the ground in the KC area...there may be a time during the storm that the air is actually warmer above the surface... Regardless this looks to be an impressive storm that we'll be tracking for the next 5 days...it won't be a fast mover...so it will affect us through TUE...and as a result temperatures which have been so far above average for the month thus far (+9.4 degrees)...are about to start edging downward...but it's also important to note that these storms that will affect us for the next 5-10 days will not be able to tap any of the cold air way to the north in NW Canada...soo it would take the EXACT right track of a storm to do anything worth getting excited for IF your a winter lover...from an enthusiast standpoint however...there certainly will be a lot to talk about for the rest of the month... Speaking of the month...take a look and see how things from a Temperature Departure from average standpoint look... [image] That's an awfully warm US...quite the opposite of what happened in OCT...at least so far...from a precip standpoint...there's a lot of real estate that's drying out... [image]   More on the soon to be developing storm tomorrow afternoon Joe     OUR WINTER FORECAST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THE 20TH...DURING THE 9PM SHOW...WITH POSSIBLE RE-AIRINGS THAT WEEKEND...WE'RE EXPECTING TO FILL ABOUT 6-8 MINUTES...personally I don't have a feel at all for this winter now...I could lean either way...but initital thoughts are a winter of extremes...with less than average snowfall...and above average precipitation...and temps that for the winter (DJF as a whole) are tilted to above average. I think I just told you too much...but really this is what I've been thinking for more than 2 months and I haven't seen a reason yet to alter those thoughts... Now before you get yourself worked up...I still have a tough time thinking that anyone in our viewing area will see any flakes... Good afternoon and thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weeather Blog...a lot to talk about after what has been a relatively dull last several weeks...as the Pacific energy is really going to kick start several storms that should have pretty important impacts on the weather in these parts...promising brief shots of cold air...more mild air...and seasonal air...along with some decent rainfall...and perhaps flooding rainfall in parks of the Ozarks...also a pretty gray eriod is heading our way again...so enjoy tomorrow...after that we kind of get into a gray rut for about 4+ days... A cold front will be moving into the region tomorrow night...so enjoy the mild and gusty south winds tomorrow...this front is the first stage of of declining weather...as it moves into OK moisture...dewpoints near 50...it will undercut that moisture...nelp create a lot of clouds tomorrow night and even the potential of some shower activity...and once those lower clouds form...it may be tough to scour them on SAT...with the potential for some additional sprinkles/lighter showers to move through...but at this point SAT should not be a total rainout...perhaps drippy at times...but OK...temps will certainly be cooler with readings only 50-55 I think... The developing storm that has all of our attention is still really just a big peice of jetstream energy in the Northern Pacific Ocean...here is a look at it... [image] This energy is going to turn into an impressive storm in the Desert SW on SUN...this then will continue to develop and tap into a lot of Gulf Moisture by early MON AM and create a lot of rain in the Plains and S Plains...as the storm intensifies it's likely to cool down the atmosphere in a swath towards the NW of the upper level low...so it's possible that yes it may snow with this storm...but since we're in the wrong place in relationship to the storm...the best chances of snow (a heavy wet type thing) would be well towards the W and perhaps well SW of the metro...for us the storm gets soooo wrapped up that it brings in wayyyy to much warm air above the surface...so while it's near 40 on the ground in the KC area...there may be a time during the storm that the air is actually warmer above the surface... Regardless this looks to be an impressive storm that we'll be tracking for the next 5 days...it won't be a fast mover...so it will affect us through TUE...and as a result temperatures which have been so far above average for the month thus far (+9.4 degrees)...are about to start edging downward...but it's also important to note that these storms that will affect us for the next 5-10 days will not be able to tap any of the cold air way to the north in NW Canada...soo it would take the EXACT right track of a storm to do anything worth getting excited for IF your a winter lover...from an enthusiast standpoint however...there certainly will be a lot to talk about for the rest of the month... Speaking of the month...take a look and see how things from a Temperature Departure from average standpoint look... [image] That's an awfully warm US...quite the opposite of what happened in OCT...at least so far...from a precip standpoint...there's a lot of real estate that's drying out... [image]   More on the soon to be developing storm tomorrow afternoon Joe     Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:06:39 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Snow-For-Some-I-Think/BLOG/1492936/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-12T21:06:39Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community OUR WINTER FORECAST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THE 20TH...DURING THE 9PM SHOW...WITH POSSIBLE RE-AIRINGS THAT WEEKEND...WE'RE EXPECTING TO FILL ABOUT 6-8 MINUTES...personally I don't have a feel at all for this winter now...I could lean either way...but initital thoughts are a winter of extremes...with less than average snowfall...and above average precipitation...and temps that for the winter (DJF as a whole) are tilted to above average. I think I just told you too much...but really this is what I've been thinking for more than 2 months and I haven't seen a reason yet to alter those thoughts... Now before you get yourself worked up...I still have a tough time thinking that anyone in our viewing area will see any flakes... Good afternoon and thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weeather Blog...a lot to talk about after what has been a relatively dull last several weeks...as the Pacific energy is really going to kick start several storms that should have pretty important impacts on the weather in these parts...promising brief shots of cold air...more mild air...and seasonal air...along with some decent rainfall...and perhaps flooding rainfall in parks of the Ozarks...also a pretty gray eriod is heading our way again...so enjoy tomorrow...after that we kind of get into a gray rut for about 4+ days... A cold front will be moving into the region tomorrow night...so enjoy the mild and gusty south winds tomorrow...this front is the first stage of of declining weather...as it moves into OK moisture...dewpoints near 50...it will undercut that moisture...nelp create a lot of clouds tomorrow night and even the potential of some shower activity...and once those lower clouds form...it may be tough to scour them on SAT...with the potential for some additional sprinkles/lighter showers to move through...but at this point SAT should not be a total rainout...perhaps drippy at times...but OK...temps will certainly be cooler with readings only 50-55 I think... The developing storm that has all of our attention is still really just a big peice of jetstream energy in the Northern Pacific Ocean...here is a look at it... [image] This energy is going to turn into an impressive storm in the Desert SW on SUN...this then will continue to develop and tap into a lot of Gulf Moisture by early MON AM and create a lot of rain in the Plains and S Plains...as the storm intensifies it's likely to cool down the atmosphere in a swath towards the NW of the upper level low...so it's possible that yes it may snow with this storm...but since we're in the wrong place in relationship to the storm...the best chances of snow (a heavy wet type thing) would be well towards the W and perhaps well SW of the metro...for us the storm gets soooo wrapped up that it brings in wayyyy to much warm air above the surface...so while it's near 40 on the ground in the KC area...there may be a time during the storm that the air is actually warmer above the surface... Regardless this looks to be an impressive storm that we'll be tracking for the next 5 days...it won't be a fast mover...so it will affect us through TUE...and as a result temperatures which have been so far above average for the month thus far (+9.4 degrees)...are about to start edging downward...but it's also important to note that these storms that will affect us for the next 5-10 days will not be able to tap any of the cold air way to the north in NW Canada...soo it would take the EXACT right track of a storm to do anything worth getting excited for IF your a winter lover...from an enthusiast standpoint however...there certainly will be a lot to talk about for the rest of the month... Speaking of the month...take a look and see how things from a Temperature Departure from average standpoint look... [image] That's an awfully warm US...quite the opposite of what happened in OCT...at least so far...from a precip standpoint...there's a lot of real estate that's drying out... [image]   More on the soon to be developing storm tomorrow afternoon Joe     weather nonadult false Snow For Some I Think... text blog weather 274 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1492936 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Big-Changes-Ahead/BLOG/1492239/96364.html Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:05:09 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Big-Changes-Ahead/BLOG/1492239/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-12T11:05:09Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community weather nonadult false Big Changes Ahead! video blog weather 125 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1492239 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_My-Winter-Forecast/BLOG/1491252/96364.html Good Afternoon Everyone! We are a week away or so from having to finalize our winter forecasts for 2009-2010.  I've been looking at a lot of different things (past El Nino years and their respective past winters, snow fall totals for those years, temperatures for those years, along with normal years as well.)  Needless to say I'm wavering back and forth over certain parts of my forecast. Typically in El Nino winters we have at or above average temperatures, and at or below average snowfall.  There were some years though that proved to be the exception.  Due to the fact this year has been so crazy (cool summer, very cold October, warm start to November) part of me wants to say this winter will be the exception as well.  Only time will tell, and I have the next seven days to continue to go back and forth with my forecast. Now on to the current forecast...dry for the rest of the week with temperatures above average.  This weekend we'll see our rain chances going back up...to about 20% on Saturday and potentially much higher for Sunday.  Two days ago the models were favoring a cut off low over the central Plains early next week.  Yesterday they backed off and had a much more progressive pattern with a slight chance for rain Sunday and Monday.  Then today several models jumped back on the cut off low bandwagon.  Right now I went ahead and reintroduced rain chances back into the forecast for Sunday and Monday.  It will be cold and rainy both of those days, with only a slight chance for rain Saturday. As this storm(or lack thereof) evolves over the next 4-5 days we'll keep you up to date...and hopefully not have to change our forecast too much more! Have a great rest of the day, and enjoy the nice weather!!!-Karli Good Afternoon Everyone! We are a week away or so from having to finalize our winter forecasts for 2009-2010.  I've been looking at a lot of different things (past El Nino years and their respective past winters, snow fall totals for those years, temperatures for those years, along with normal years as well.)  Needless to say I'm wavering back and forth over certain parts of my forecast. Typically in El Nino winters we have at or above average temperatures, and at or below average snowfall.  There were some years though that proved to be the exception.  Due to the fact this year has been so crazy (cool summer, very cold October, warm start to November) part of me wants to say this winter will be the exception as well.  Only time will tell, and I have the next seven days to continue to go back and forth with my forecast. Now on to the current forecast...dry for the rest of the week with temperatures above average.  This weekend we'll see our rain chances going back up...to about 20% on Saturday and potentially much higher for Sunday.  Two days ago the models were favoring a cut off low over the central Plains early next week.  Yesterday they backed off and had a much more progressive pattern with a slight chance for rain Sunday and Monday.  Then today several models jumped back on the cut off low bandwagon.  Right now I went ahead and reintroduced rain chances back into the forecast for Sunday and Monday.  It will be cold and rainy both of those days, with only a slight chance for rain Saturday. As this storm(or lack thereof) evolves over the next 4-5 days we'll keep you up to date...and hopefully not have to change our forecast too much more! Have a great rest of the day, and enjoy the nice weather!!!-Karli Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:39:35 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_My-Winter-Forecast/BLOG/1491252/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-11T20:39:35Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Good Afternoon Everyone! We are a week away or so from having to finalize our winter forecasts for 2009-2010.  I've been looking at a lot of different things (past El Nino years and their respective past winters, snow fall totals for those years, temperatures for those years, along with normal years as well.)  Needless to say I'm wavering back and forth over certain parts of my forecast. Typically in El Nino winters we have at or above average temperatures, and at or below average snowfall.  There were some years though that proved to be the exception.  Due to the fact this year has been so crazy (cool summer, very cold October, warm start to November) part of me wants to say this winter will be the exception as well.  Only time will tell, and I have the next seven days to continue to go back and forth with my forecast. Now on to the current forecast...dry for the rest of the week with temperatures above average.  This weekend we'll see our rain chances going back up...to about 20% on Saturday and potentially much higher for Sunday.  Two days ago the models were favoring a cut off low over the central Plains early next week.  Yesterday they backed off and had a much more progressive pattern with a slight chance for rain Sunday and Monday.  Then today several models jumped back on the cut off low bandwagon.  Right now I went ahead and reintroduced rain chances back into the forecast for Sunday and Monday.  It will be cold and rainy both of those days, with only a slight chance for rain Saturday. As this storm(or lack thereof) evolves over the next 4-5 days we'll keep you up to date...and hopefully not have to change our forecast too much more! Have a great rest of the day, and enjoy the nice weather!!!-Karli weather nonadult false My Winter Forecast text blog weather 391 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1491252 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_What-Now/BLOG/1489913/96364.html Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:22:46 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_What-Now/BLOG/1489913/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-11T11:22:46Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community weather nonadult false What Now? video blog weather 230 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1489913 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_WHAT-TO-BELIEVE-PART-DEUX/BLOG/1484630/96364.html Don began to talk about the differences in the models this morning....I expand on that theme in my video blog this evening.  The improtant thing to remember in this case is that Pacific storms must be respected this time of year...and with all that moisture involved...the lingering energy could easily dive into a secondary lagginf trof.  So I am a bit concerned about the Euro solution...and if it follows suit tomorrow...we may be changing our forecast to reflect it!  We'll see!!! In the meantime, enjoy the next few days!  Here's my webcast: Mike Don began to talk about the differences in the models this morning....I expand on that theme in my video blog this evening.  The improtant thing to remember in this case is that Pacific storms must be respected this time of year...and with all that moisture involved...the lingering energy could easily dive into a secondary lagginf trof.  So I am a bit concerned about the Euro solution...and if it follows suit tomorrow...we may be changing our forecast to reflect it!  We'll see!!! In the meantime, enjoy the next few days!  Here's my webcast: Mike Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:28:36 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_WHAT-TO-BELIEVE-PART-DEUX/BLOG/1484630/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-11T01:28:36Z Fox 4 KC Community Don began to talk about the differences in the models this morning....I expand on that theme in my video blog this evening.  The improtant thing to remember in this case is that Pacific storms must be respected this time of year...and with all that moisture involved...the lingering energy could easily dive into a secondary lagginf trof.  So I am a bit concerned about the Euro solution...and if it follows suit tomorrow...we may be changing our forecast to reflect it!  We'll see!!! In the meantime, enjoy the next few days!  Here's my webcast: Mike nonadult false WHAT TO BELIEVE PART DEUX text blog 119 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1484630 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_What-to-Believe/BLOG/1480690/96364.html Tue, 10 Nov 2009 11:41:50 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_What-to-Believe/BLOG/1480690/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-10T11:41:50Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community weather nonadult false What to Believe? video blog weather 166 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1480690 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Quiet-Here/BLOG/1479628/96364.html Good Afternoon Everyone! Our weather remains pretty quiet this afternoon...with the exception of a small line of showers moving northeast across parts of eastern Kansas.  This line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue moving across parts of the viewing area through the evening hours.  Behind the front the air isn't incredibly cold, so don't expect a major cooldown.  In fact our temperatures tomorrow will hover on either side of 60 degrees, which is still slightly above average for this time of the year.  Wednesday through Friday we'll warm things back up, with the end of the week possibly reaching the 70s again! Rain chances (after today/tonight) will be nonexistent until this upcoming weekend.  Some of the models bring a big storm into the Plains Sunday into Monday...and some of them bring it right over our viewing area.  Right now I've bumped up rain chances for Sunday to 40% (and this will have to go up significantly if things pan out through the week).  Saturday we'll have a slight chance for rain and if the storm moves on top of us or close by, rain chances could linger into Monday.  Again, still five days away a lot can change, but if the models pan out...we'll have a cold, rainy forecast for late in the weekend. That's about as exciting as our weather will be for the 4-6 days...so enjoy it!  Down in the southeastern part of the U.S. it's a different story.  They are dealing with a late season Tropical Storm, Ida.  Over the weekend Ida strengthened to 90 mph winds and right now winds have decreased to just below hurricane strength at 70mph.  The storm is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning somewhere between Mississippi and the Florida panhandle.  Rainy, squally weather and windy conditions will persist for the next 36 hours or so down there.  Hurricane season officially ends November 30th...so after such a quiet season, it's pretty interesting to have a landfalling storm this late in the year. Have a great afternoon everyone,Karli Good Afternoon Everyone! Our weather remains pretty quiet this afternoon...with the exception of a small line of showers moving northeast across parts of eastern Kansas.  This line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue moving across parts of the viewing area through the evening hours.  Behind the front the air isn't incredibly cold, so don't expect a major cooldown.  In fact our temperatures tomorrow will hover on either side of 60 degrees, which is still slightly above average for this time of the year.  Wednesday through Friday we'll warm things back up, with the end of the week possibly reaching the 70s again! Rain chances (after today/tonight) will be nonexistent until this upcoming weekend.  Some of the models bring a big storm into the Plains Sunday into Monday...and some of them bring it right over our viewing area.  Right now I've bumped up rain chances for Sunday to 40% (and this will have to go up significantly if things pan out through the week).  Saturday we'll have a slight chance for rain and if the storm moves on top of us or close by, rain chances could linger into Monday.  Again, still five days away a lot can change, but if the models pan out...we'll have a cold, rainy forecast for late in the weekend. That's about as exciting as our weather will be for the 4-6 days...so enjoy it!  Down in the southeastern part of the U.S. it's a different story.  They are dealing with a late season Tropical Storm, Ida.  Over the weekend Ida strengthened to 90 mph winds and right now winds have decreased to just below hurricane strength at 70mph.  The storm is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning somewhere between Mississippi and the Florida panhandle.  Rainy, squally weather and windy conditions will persist for the next 36 hours or so down there.  Hurricane season officially ends November 30th...so after such a quiet season, it's pretty interesting to have a landfalling storm this late in the year. Have a great afternoon everyone,Karli Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:46:58 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Quiet-Here/BLOG/1479628/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-09T20:46:58Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Good Afternoon Everyone! Our weather remains pretty quiet this afternoon...with the exception of a small line of showers moving northeast across parts of eastern Kansas.  This line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue moving across parts of the viewing area through the evening hours.  Behind the front the air isn't incredibly cold, so don't expect a major cooldown.  In fact our temperatures tomorrow will hover on either side of 60 degrees, which is still slightly above average for this time of the year.  Wednesday through Friday we'll warm things back up, with the end of the week possibly reaching the 70s again! Rain chances (after today/tonight) will be nonexistent until this upcoming weekend.  Some of the models bring a big storm into the Plains Sunday into Monday...and some of them bring it right over our viewing area.  Right now I've bumped up rain chances for Sunday to 40% (and this will have to go up significantly if things pan out through the week).  Saturday we'll have a slight chance for rain and if the storm moves on top of us or close by, rain chances could linger into Monday.  Again, still five days away a lot can change, but if the models pan out...we'll have a cold, rainy forecast for late in the weekend. That's about as exciting as our weather will be for the 4-6 days...so enjoy it!  Down in the southeastern part of the U.S. it's a different story.  They are dealing with a late season Tropical Storm, Ida.  Over the weekend Ida strengthened to 90 mph winds and right now winds have decreased to just below hurricane strength at 70mph.  The storm is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning somewhere between Mississippi and the Florida panhandle.  Rainy, squally weather and windy conditions will persist for the next 36 hours or so down there.  Hurricane season officially ends November 30th...so after such a quiet season, it's pretty interesting to have a landfalling storm this late in the year. Have a great afternoon everyone,Karli weather nonadult false Quiet Here... text blog weather 124 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1479628 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Front-on-the-Move/BLOG/1475996/96364.html Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:08:12 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Front-on-the-Move/BLOG/1475996/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-09T11:08:12Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community weather nonadult false Front on the Move! video blog weather 122 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1475996 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Interesting-Ida/BLOG/1468069/96364.html Forecast details will be handled on the news this evening @ 9PM...decent chance of some rain/showers tomorrow...timing is a bit faster so really at any time tomorrow there may be at least some rain in the area...but a full day long soaking event is not expected as far as I'm concerned...dewpoints have risen well into the 50s...so as a weak front undercuts this moisture...combined with some weak energy moving up from the Gulf Of Mexico...means at least some rain...my guess is that rainfall amounts should stay under .25" for the whole event, although there may be a few areas that do somewhat better that may linger till early TUE AM...there is some decent precipitable water around...and it's also interesting how the 18Z NAM has really backed off on the precip amounts... Ida has been an interesting storm in a boring Hurricane season...it's still there, now a Category 2 hurricane with winds over 90 MPH...and the forecasts for the future movement of Ida are all over the place...and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for areas from New Orleans eastwards through the Big Bend Area of FL... [image] The track of Ida per the folks @ NHC is as follows... [image] Of the many things that I find interesting is what happens to the storm after landfall...as it potential wallows around across the SE part of the country before potentially re-emerging somewhere off the SE coastline...it's here that the models are all over the place with the EURO doing very creative things, as it moves the storm then due south through the Bahamas then eventually back up the coastline...it essentially sits and spins for about 5 days from WED through next MON...before getting absorbed by our next weather maker that moves through next weekend...all interesting stuff and potentially a flood maker for whereever Ida sits and spins...the heaviest rain will initially be in NW FL and the S GA area...then after that the heavy rains may be over the ocean waters before Ida moves closer to the coastline... It should weaken somewhat as it approaches landfall early TUE AM...but the NHC has had all sorts of issues trying to figure out the strength of the storm over the past several days...here is a look at some of the model guidance showing the huge spread including loop-de-loops as well... [image] Here is the latest RECON report... Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 20:32Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309) Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009 Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 4 Observation Number: 14 A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 20:04:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°03'N 86°13'W (22.05N 86.2167W) B. Center Fix Location: 74 miles (119 km) between the NNE and NE (33°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,903m (9,524ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 92° at 90kts (From the E at ~ 103.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNE (12°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 976mb (28.82 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,079m (10,102ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:21:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SE (142°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... PARTIAL WALL NW SFC CENTER 7NM SOUTH OF FLT LEVEL The central pressure of the storm is holding @ 976 mbs...which is about where it's been for the last 6+ hours or so...winds may be coming down a bit...but still a pretty formidable storm... And a brief visible loop... [image] This storm, I believe is already the deadliest tropical system of th year...killing at least 42 in El Salvador... Let's end this on a lighter note...when I was out in Boulder a few weeks ago...one of the social scientists showed this video...apparently from a CBC show in Canada...sort of like our Colbert Report...it's a riot!   Have a great week! Joe Forecast details will be handled on the news this evening @ 9PM...decent chance of some rain/showers tomorrow...timing is a bit faster so really at any time tomorrow there may be at least some rain in the area...but a full day long soaking event is not expected as far as I'm concerned...dewpoints have risen well into the 50s...so as a weak front undercuts this moisture...combined with some weak energy moving up from the Gulf Of Mexico...means at least some rain...my guess is that rainfall amounts should stay under .25" for the whole event, although there may be a few areas that do somewhat better that may linger till early TUE AM...there is some decent precipitable water around...and it's also interesting how the 18Z NAM has really backed off on the precip amounts... Ida has been an interesting storm in a boring Hurricane season...it's still there, now a Category 2 hurricane with winds over 90 MPH...and the forecasts for the future movement of Ida are all over the place...and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for areas from New Orleans eastwards through the Big Bend Area of FL... [image] The track of Ida per the folks @ NHC is as follows... [image] Of the many things that I find interesting is what happens to the storm after landfall...as it potential wallows around across the SE part of the country before potentially re-emerging somewhere off the SE coastline...it's here that the models are all over the place with the EURO doing very creative things, as it moves the storm then due south through the Bahamas then eventually back up the coastline...it essentially sits and spins for about 5 days from WED through next MON...before getting absorbed by our next weather maker that moves through next weekend...all interesting stuff and potentially a flood maker for whereever Ida sits and spins...the heaviest rain will initially be in NW FL and the S GA area...then after that the heavy rains may be over the ocean waters before Ida moves closer to the coastline... It should weaken somewhat as it approaches landfall early TUE AM...but the NHC has had all sorts of issues trying to figure out the strength of the storm over the past several days...here is a look at some of the model guidance showing the huge spread including loop-de-loops as well... [image] Here is the latest RECON report... Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 20:32Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309) Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009 Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 4 Observation Number: 14 A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 20:04:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°03'N 86°13'W (22.05N 86.2167W) B. Center Fix Location: 74 miles (119 km) between the NNE and NE (33°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,903m (9,524ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 92° at 90kts (From the E at ~ 103.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNE (12°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 976mb (28.82 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,079m (10,102ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:21:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SE (142°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... PARTIAL WALL NW SFC CENTER 7NM SOUTH OF FLT LEVEL The central pressure of the storm is holding @ 976 mbs...which is about where it's been for the last 6+ hours or so...winds may be coming down a bit...but still a pretty formidable storm... And a brief visible loop... [image] This storm, I believe is already the deadliest tropical system of th year...killing at least 42 in El Salvador... Let's end this on a lighter note...when I was out in Boulder a few weeks ago...one of the social scientists showed this video...apparently from a CBC show in Canada...sort of like our Colbert Report...it's a riot!   Have a great week! Joe Sun, 08 Nov 2009 21:37:26 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Interesting-Ida/BLOG/1468069/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-08T21:37:26Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Forecast details will be handled on the news this evening @ 9PM...decent chance of some rain/showers tomorrow...timing is a bit faster so really at any time tomorrow there may be at least some rain in the area...but a full day long soaking event is not expected as far as I'm concerned...dewpoints have risen well into the 50s...so as a weak front undercuts this moisture...combined with some weak energy moving up from the Gulf Of Mexico...means at least some rain...my guess is that rainfall amounts should stay under .25" for the whole event, although there may be a few areas that do somewhat better that may linger till early TUE AM...there is some decent precipitable water around...and it's also interesting how the 18Z NAM has really backed off on the precip amounts... Ida has been an interesting storm in a boring Hurricane season...it's still there, now a Category 2 hurricane with winds over 90 MPH...and the forecasts for the future movement of Ida are all over the place...and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for areas from New Orleans eastwards through the Big Bend Area of FL... [image] The track of Ida per the folks @ NHC is as follows... [image] Of the many things that I find interesting is what happens to the storm after landfall...as it potential wallows around across the SE part of the country before potentially re-emerging somewhere off the SE coastline...it's here that the models are all over the place with the EURO doing very creative things, as it moves the storm then due south through the Bahamas then eventually back up the coastline...it essentially sits and spins for about 5 days from WED through next MON...before getting absorbed by our next weather maker that moves through next weekend...all interesting stuff and potentially a flood maker for whereever Ida sits and spins...the heaviest rain will initially be in NW FL and the S GA area...then after that the heavy rains may be over the ocean waters before Ida moves closer to the coastline... It should weaken somewhat as it approaches landfall early TUE AM...but the NHC has had all sorts of issues trying to figure out the strength of the storm over the past several days...here is a look at some of the model guidance showing the huge spread including loop-de-loops as well... [image] Here is the latest RECON report... Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 20:32Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309) Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009 Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 4 Observation Number: 14 A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 20:04:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°03'N 86°13'W (22.05N 86.2167W) B. Center Fix Location: 74 miles (119 km) between the NNE and NE (33°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,903m (9,524ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 92° at 90kts (From the E at ~ 103.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNE (12°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 976mb (28.82 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,079m (10,102ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:21:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SE (142°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... PARTIAL WALL NW SFC CENTER 7NM SOUTH OF FLT LEVEL The central pressure of the storm is holding @ 976 mbs...which is about where it's been for the last 6+ hours or so...winds may be coming down a bit...but still a pretty formidable storm... And a brief visible loop... [image] This storm, I believe is already the deadliest tropical system of th year...killing at least 42 in El Salvador... Let's end this on a lighter note...when I was out in Boulder a few weeks ago...one of the social scientists showed this video...apparently from a CBC show in Canada...sort of like our Colbert Report...it's a riot!   Have a great week! Joe weather nonadult false Interesting Ida text blog weather 113 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1468069 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Blog-Issues/BLOG/1466987/96364.html We've had some issues for the last week or so...the issue is a mystery but it affects the newest (latest) blog that shows up when you click on Blog on the hiome page within the forecast window...we're aware of it but we have no idea why it's happening...so until you notice otherwise ALWAYS click on the blog icon...then look towards the right hand side for most likely a newer blog title then click on that...again we're aware of the issue... The 5PM weather will be live in Independence this evening for the annual lighting of the Town Square area...this is a FOX 4 tradition for the last about 5+ years and as usual I'm honored to help them out with this...it's a rare SAT in NOV that you can wear short sleeves for a tree lighting ceremony...we've been out there in the 30 degree wind chills and that is not too fun...in 2 weeks I'll be helping to light the trees and decorations at Zona Rosa as we start perhaps a new tradition in the Northland... No changes needed to the forecast at this point with the better rain chances later MON into early TUE AM...not buying the generous rainfall solution on TUE that the NAM is currently portraying...however may lower TUE highs later this PM...after that we should be pleasant on WED and warmer again THU-FRI before our next potential rain maker heads our way next weekend...see yesterday's blog for some longer range speculation. Great afternoon for College Football... Joe We've had some issues for the last week or so...the issue is a mystery but it affects the newest (latest) blog that shows up when you click on Blog on the hiome page within the forecast window...we're aware of it but we have no idea why it's happening...so until you notice otherwise ALWAYS click on the blog icon...then look towards the right hand side for most likely a newer blog title then click on that...again we're aware of the issue... The 5PM weather will be live in Independence this evening for the annual lighting of the Town Square area...this is a FOX 4 tradition for the last about 5+ years and as usual I'm honored to help them out with this...it's a rare SAT in NOV that you can wear short sleeves for a tree lighting ceremony...we've been out there in the 30 degree wind chills and that is not too fun...in 2 weeks I'll be helping to light the trees and decorations at Zona Rosa as we start perhaps a new tradition in the Northland... No changes needed to the forecast at this point with the better rain chances later MON into early TUE AM...not buying the generous rainfall solution on TUE that the NAM is currently portraying...however may lower TUE highs later this PM...after that we should be pleasant on WED and warmer again THU-FRI before our next potential rain maker heads our way next weekend...see yesterday's blog for some longer range speculation. Great afternoon for College Football... Joe Sat, 07 Nov 2009 21:13:29 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Blog-Issues/BLOG/1466987/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-07T21:13:29Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community We've had some issues for the last week or so...the issue is a mystery but it affects the newest (latest) blog that shows up when you click on Blog on the hiome page within the forecast window...we're aware of it but we have no idea why it's happening...so until you notice otherwise ALWAYS click on the blog icon...then look towards the right hand side for most likely a newer blog title then click on that...again we're aware of the issue... The 5PM weather will be live in Independence this evening for the annual lighting of the Town Square area...this is a FOX 4 tradition for the last about 5+ years and as usual I'm honored to help them out with this...it's a rare SAT in NOV that you can wear short sleeves for a tree lighting ceremony...we've been out there in the 30 degree wind chills and that is not too fun...in 2 weeks I'll be helping to light the trees and decorations at Zona Rosa as we start perhaps a new tradition in the Northland... No changes needed to the forecast at this point with the better rain chances later MON into early TUE AM...not buying the generous rainfall solution on TUE that the NAM is currently portraying...however may lower TUE highs later this PM...after that we should be pleasant on WED and warmer again THU-FRI before our next potential rain maker heads our way next weekend...see yesterday's blog for some longer range speculation. Great afternoon for College Football... Joe weather nonadult false Blog Issues text blog weather 144 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1466987 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_November-Thoughts/BLOG/1465490/96364.html I'm not going to spend any time talking about the day to day aspect of the forecast aside from saying a great weekend is ahead...with highs in the 70s both SAT and SUN...and the potential for SUN to actually be warmer than tomorrow...although from a wind stand point...tomorrow looks great...SUN will be breezy/windy again...not to the extreme as today...with winds gusting to near 40 MPH, however we may see 30 MPH winds return on SUN...but assuming we can see a lot of sunshine...temps well into the 70s are expected...before a weak, seasonal front slides into the area on MON...dropping up back into the 60s...with somewhat cooler air expected for a day on TUE...and then we'll moderate again...basically there are no significantly cold airmasses heading our way on the model data in our immediate future... Let's talk about that model data as I have lots of folks asking me about the winter forecast...which btw we'll be airing on NOV 20th...some interesting tidbits for you...1) did you know that so far Eurasia snowcover is ranked 10th in terms of the total...the last time there was more snow was 2006...as a matter of fact here is a look at the top 10 Eurasian OCT snow totals...with our corresponding winter total... 1976    7.30    1 16.1" El Nino Year2002    3.43    2 9.5" El Nino Year1970    3.29    3 20.5" La Nina Year1971    2.52    4 10.4" Weak La Nina1968    2.49    5 14.4" 1972    2.48    6 19.2" Stong El Nino Year1998    1.85    7 12.9" La Nina Year1977    1.72    8 16.5" El Nino Year2006    1.68    9 10.2" El Nino Year2009    1.43    10 ??? El nino Year This really doesn't mean a lot to me...what is interesting is that when Eurasia had more snow...9 times previously...only 2 of those times did we have an average winter snow total...7 times were below to well below average...interesting to me... 2) Ensemble data...here is one of the good things about the weather blog...I can get into this and show you exclusive information here as opposed to on the air... First the standard GFS ensemble forecasts...first for Day 9... [image]                         Now for Day 16... [image] Now for our exclusive EURO ensemble...which unlike the operational EURO is run well past Day 10... [image] PLEASE click on each graphic and then "View Enlarged Image"... Why the maps?...what I want to show you is where the real cold air is forecasted to be located...and essentially how little it moves for the 10-16 day period...this is very significant because it would keep the cold air bottled up well towards Asia and Northern extremes of Europe...IF the cold air is there...there is no way it can get to us for the next 15-20 days or so...that's of course assuming these maps are close to correct...but what this does is allow weak seasonal shots of cooler air move through followed by milder pacific air...but with a polar vortex centered over N Russia the weekend before Thanksgiving...the positioning allows mild pacific air to flow eastwards...now the PAC NW may be extremely wet...as well as the NW Territories...but for us this is basically a mild and mostly dry flow... Obviously this is just an interpretation of the modeling...and said models can't really be trusted past a few days during this time of the year but they have been persistent in this thinking for awhile now...and it's an important part of our evolving weather heading into the next month...something like this typically will last for about 4+ weeks...and at some point in DEC...probably after the first week that cold air may slosh our way...and it may be really cold in the US...but that is PURE speculation on my part...MT and I was looking back @ 2006/07, because I remember doing blogs about something similiar...where I kept maintaining that in most cases IF Canada can't get cold...we can't get that cold. Eventually something similiar broke down and the flood gates opened briefly for some real cold air but it didn't last long... Does all of this mean anything in the big picture...probably not...but it's fascinating to me...because IF this vortex on the other side of the world turns into something permanant...it spells a harsh winter for sure for Asia...and for us not bad at all...something to think about and monitor for the next several weeks...If I'm displaying similiar maps towards the end of NOV...gulp! Enjoy the great weather this weekend... Joe   I'm not going to spend any time talking about the day to day aspect of the forecast aside from saying a great weekend is ahead...with highs in the 70s both SAT and SUN...and the potential for SUN to actually be warmer than tomorrow...although from a wind stand point...tomorrow looks great...SUN will be breezy/windy again...not to the extreme as today...with winds gusting to near 40 MPH, however we may see 30 MPH winds return on SUN...but assuming we can see a lot of sunshine...temps well into the 70s are expected...before a weak, seasonal front slides into the area on MON...dropping up back into the 60s...with somewhat cooler air expected for a day on TUE...and then we'll moderate again...basically there are no significantly cold airmasses heading our way on the model data in our immediate future... Let's talk about that model data as I have lots of folks asking me about the winter forecast...which btw we'll be airing on NOV 20th...some interesting tidbits for you...1) did you know that so far Eurasia snowcover is ranked 10th in terms of the total...the last time there was more snow was 2006...as a matter of fact here is a look at the top 10 Eurasian OCT snow totals...with our corresponding winter total... 1976    7.30    1 16.1" El Nino Year2002    3.43    2 9.5" El Nino Year1970    3.29    3 20.5" La Nina Year1971    2.52    4 10.4" Weak La Nina1968    2.49    5 14.4" 1972    2.48    6 19.2" Stong El Nino Year1998    1.85    7 12.9" La Nina Year1977    1.72    8 16.5" El Nino Year2006    1.68    9 10.2" El Nino Year2009    1.43    10 ??? El nino Year This really doesn't mean a lot to me...what is interesting is that when Eurasia had more snow...9 times previously...only 2 of those times did we have an average winter snow total...7 times were below to well below average...interesting to me... 2) Ensemble data...here is one of the good things about the weather blog...I can get into this and show you exclusive information here as opposed to on the air... First the standard GFS ensemble forecasts...first for Day 9... [image]                         Now for Day 16... [image] Now for our exclusive EURO ensemble...which unlike the operational EURO is run well past Day 10... [image] PLEASE click on each graphic and then "View Enlarged Image"... Why the maps?...what I want to show you is where the real cold air is forecasted to be located...and essentially how little it moves for the 10-16 day period...this is very significant because it would keep the cold air bottled up well towards Asia and Northern extremes of Europe...IF the cold air is there...there is no way it can get to us for the next 15-20 days or so...that's of course assuming these maps are close to correct...but what this does is allow weak seasonal shots of cooler air move through followed by milder pacific air...but with a polar vortex centered over N Russia the weekend before Thanksgiving...the positioning allows mild pacific air to flow eastwards...now the PAC NW may be extremely wet...as well as the NW Territories...but for us this is basically a mild and mostly dry flow... Obviously this is just an interpretation of the modeling...and said models can't really be trusted past a few days during this time of the year but they have been persistent in this thinking for awhile now...and it's an important part of our evolving weather heading into the next month...something like this typically will last for about 4+ weeks...and at some point in DEC...probably after the first week that cold air may slosh our way...and it may be really cold in the US...but that is PURE speculation on my part...MT and I was looking back @ 2006/07, because I remember doing blogs about something similiar...where I kept maintaining that in most cases IF Canada can't get cold...we can't get that cold. Eventually something similiar broke down and the flood gates opened briefly for some real cold air but it didn't last long... Does all of this mean anything in the big picture...probably not...but it's fascinating to me...because IF this vortex on the other side of the world turns into something permanant...it spells a harsh winter for sure for Asia...and for us not bad at all...something to think about and monitor for the next several weeks...If I'm displaying similiar maps towards the end of NOV...gulp! Enjoy the great weather this weekend... Joe   Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:47:29 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_November-Thoughts/BLOG/1465490/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-06T21:47:29Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community I'm not going to spend any time talking about the day to day aspect of the forecast aside from saying a great weekend is ahead...with highs in the 70s both SAT and SUN...and the potential for SUN to actually be warmer than tomorrow...although from a wind stand point...tomorrow looks great...SUN will be breezy/windy again...not to the extreme as today...with winds gusting to near 40 MPH, however we may see 30 MPH winds return on SUN...but assuming we can see a lot of sunshine...temps well into the 70s are expected...before a weak, seasonal front slides into the area on MON...dropping up back into the 60s...with somewhat cooler air expected for a day on TUE...and then we'll moderate again...basically there are no significantly cold airmasses heading our way on the model data in our immediate future... Let's talk about that model data as I have lots of folks asking me about the winter forecast...which btw we'll be airing on NOV 20th...some interesting tidbits for you...1) did you know that so far Eurasia snowcover is ranked 10th in terms of the total...the last time there was more snow was 2006...as a matter of fact here is a look at the top 10 Eurasian OCT snow totals...with our corresponding winter total... 1976    7.30    1 16.1" El Nino Year2002    3.43    2 9.5" El Nino Year1970    3.29    3 20.5" La Nina Year1971    2.52    4 10.4" Weak La Nina1968    2.49    5 14.4" 1972    2.48    6 19.2" Stong El Nino Year1998    1.85    7 12.9" La Nina Year1977    1.72    8 16.5" El Nino Year2006    1.68    9 10.2" El Nino Year2009    1.43    10 ??? El nino Year This really doesn't mean a lot to me...what is interesting is that when Eurasia had more snow...9 times previously...only 2 of those times did we have an average winter snow total...7 times were below to well below average...interesting to me... 2) Ensemble data...here is one of the good things about the weather blog...I can get into this and show you exclusive information here as opposed to on the air... First the standard GFS ensemble forecasts...first for Day 9... [image]                         Now for Day 16... [image] Now for our exclusive EURO ensemble...which unlike the operational EURO is run well past Day 10... [image] PLEASE click on each graphic and then "View Enlarged Image"... Why the maps?...what I want to show you is where the real cold air is forecasted to be located...and essentially how little it moves for the 10-16 day period...this is very significant because it would keep the cold air bottled up well towards Asia and Northern extremes of Europe...IF the cold air is there...there is no way it can get to us for the next 15-20 days or so...that's of course assuming these maps are close to correct...but what this does is allow weak seasonal shots of cooler air move through followed by milder pacific air...but with a polar vortex centered over N Russia the weekend before Thanksgiving...the positioning allows mild pacific air to flow eastwards...now the PAC NW may be extremely wet...as well as the NW Territories...but for us this is basically a mild and mostly dry flow... Obviously this is just an interpretation of the modeling...and said models can't really be trusted past a few days during this time of the year but they have been persistent in this thinking for awhile now...and it's an important part of our evolving weather heading into the next month...something like this typically will last for about 4+ weeks...and at some point in DEC...probably after the first week that cold air may slosh our way...and it may be really cold in the US...but that is PURE speculation on my part...MT and I was looking back @ 2006/07, because I remember doing blogs about something similiar...where I kept maintaining that in most cases IF Canada can't get cold...we can't get that cold. Eventually something similiar broke down and the flood gates opened briefly for some real cold air but it didn't last long... Does all of this mean anything in the big picture...probably not...but it's fascinating to me...because IF this vortex on the other side of the world turns into something permanant...it spells a harsh winter for sure for Asia...and for us not bad at all...something to think about and monitor for the next several weeks...If I'm displaying similiar maps towards the end of NOV...gulp! Enjoy the great weather this weekend... Joe   weather nonadult false November Thoughts text blog weather 150 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1465490 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_September-Weather-Ahead/BLOG/1461457/96364.html Mother Nature seems a bit out of whack these days...last month, at times was more like late November...the forecast for the weekend is more like October...it'll happen in this part of the country and it's fun to track...although last month was a bit nutty with the long term chill... So here we are not even through the first week of NOV...and temperatures are running close to 5 degrees abovee average, including today, and after a frosty morning out there...highs this afternoon have rebounded into the mid 60s and we should be able to tack on at least 10 to that tomorrow...as highs should be almost 20 degrees above average for the next couplle of days...the record on SAT is 78...and we should be very close to it, if not break it. It's all good...and I'm thinking about putting the Christmas lights out this weekend...usually I do it later in NOV when I can barely feel my hands after about an hour...something about putting them up now seems smart...although at least going by the EURO there really aren't any signs about prolonged cold heading our way for the foreseeable future... Let's backtrack...here is a look at the latest surface map...showing the warmith continuing to build towards the S/SW of KC...where highs today surged well into the 70s...with even an 80 showing up in a few places...also look at Denver...last week flights were canceled because of the snow and wind...today they're well into the 70s as well...I'm guessing all that snow is long gone by now... [image]                         this warm bubble can easily been seen aloft as well...notice in the 48 hour NAM forecast how temperatures @ 5K feet are close to 20C/68F... [image] The contours at that level are leanig from the WSW to the ENE...this indicated a pretty dry flow of air at that level...now notice as we finish off the weekend...the adjustment to the way the contours are oriented...in this map more from south to north...and there are somes at least some low level moisture will start moving in from the GoM later in the weekend...how much of this translates into clouds remains to be seen... [image] There is going to be some sort of weak SW wave that gets kicked out by MON...so there is at least a chance there but it doesn't look overly impressive at this point but with dewpoints by then into the 50s...at least the chance is there for a light QPF event...but overall next week as well looks to be seasonal to mild...with NO surge of cold air heading our way...there may be another weak system THU or FRI of next week...there are some interesting things showing up on the day 10 GFS...but I don't really trust much "big picture" stuff past day 5 at this point...The EURO at it's ensembles are pretty mild for mid NOV...so we'll see how things pan out... Onto the tropics where we briefly saw Ida spin up and intenisfy near the coast of Nicaragua yesterday...briefly attain hurricane status and now has started to weaken since it made landfall earlier this AM. Ida will skirt the coastal areas of Honduras at the beginning of the weekend and then potentially come back out in the westerdn Caribbean where the water is warm...and would potentially support intensification... Remember Bill...here is a find for you... [image] This is a radar presentation of Hurricane Bill as an Air Forece Recon flight was checking it our...pretty cool stuff as you can see the flight path in relationship to the eye of the storm...Bill did at one point attain CAT 4 status...I believe by looking at the time staps this woould be 24 hours afterwards when winds were close to 100+. And finally my friend Mark O' Malley from the NWS in Pleaant Hill has puit together an El Nino discussion and it's potential implications for the area winter forecast...take a look. Joe     Mother Nature seems a bit out of whack these days...last month, at times was more like late November...the forecast for the weekend is more like October...it'll happen in this part of the country and it's fun to track...although last month was a bit nutty with the long term chill... So here we are not even through the first week of NOV...and temperatures are running close to 5 degrees abovee average, including today, and after a frosty morning out there...highs this afternoon have rebounded into the mid 60s and we should be able to tack on at least 10 to that tomorrow...as highs should be almost 20 degrees above average for the next couplle of days...the record on SAT is 78...and we should be very close to it, if not break it. It's all good...and I'm thinking about putting the Christmas lights out this weekend...usually I do it later in NOV when I can barely feel my hands after about an hour...something about putting them up now seems smart...although at least going by the EURO there really aren't any signs about prolonged cold heading our way for the foreseeable future... Let's backtrack...here is a look at the latest surface map...showing the warmith continuing to build towards the S/SW of KC...where highs today surged well into the 70s...with even an 80 showing up in a few places...also look at Denver...last week flights were canceled because of the snow and wind...today they're well into the 70s as well...I'm guessing all that snow is long gone by now... [image]                         this warm bubble can easily been seen aloft as well...notice in the 48 hour NAM forecast how temperatures @ 5K feet are close to 20C/68F... [image] The contours at that level are leanig from the WSW to the ENE...this indicated a pretty dry flow of air at that level...now notice as we finish off the weekend...the adjustment to the way the contours are oriented...in this map more from south to north...and there are somes at least some low level moisture will start moving in from the GoM later in the weekend...how much of this translates into clouds remains to be seen... [image] There is going to be some sort of weak SW wave that gets kicked out by MON...so there is at least a chance there but it doesn't look overly impressive at this point but with dewpoints by then into the 50s...at least the chance is there for a light QPF event...but overall next week as well looks to be seasonal to mild...with NO surge of cold air heading our way...there may be another weak system THU or FRI of next week...there are some interesting things showing up on the day 10 GFS...but I don't really trust much "big picture" stuff past day 5 at this point...The EURO at it's ensembles are pretty mild for mid NOV...so we'll see how things pan out... Onto the tropics where we briefly saw Ida spin up and intenisfy near the coast of Nicaragua yesterday...briefly attain hurricane status and now has started to weaken since it made landfall earlier this AM. Ida will skirt the coastal areas of Honduras at the beginning of the weekend and then potentially come back out in the westerdn Caribbean where the water is warm...and would potentially support intensification... Remember Bill...here is a find for you... [image] This is a radar presentation of Hurricane Bill as an Air Forece Recon flight was checking it our...pretty cool stuff as you can see the flight path in relationship to the eye of the storm...Bill did at one point attain CAT 4 status...I believe by looking at the time staps this woould be 24 hours afterwards when winds were close to 100+. And finally my friend Mark O' Malley from the NWS in Pleaant Hill has puit together an El Nino discussion and it's potential implications for the area winter forecast...take a look. Joe     Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:25:46 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_September-Weather-Ahead/BLOG/1461457/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-05T21:25:46Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Mother Nature seems a bit out of whack these days...last month, at times was more like late November...the forecast for the weekend is more like October...it'll happen in this part of the country and it's fun to track...although last month was a bit nutty with the long term chill... So here we are not even through the first week of NOV...and temperatures are running close to 5 degrees abovee average, including today, and after a frosty morning out there...highs this afternoon have rebounded into the mid 60s and we should be able to tack on at least 10 to that tomorrow...as highs should be almost 20 degrees above average for the next couplle of days...the record on SAT is 78...and we should be very close to it, if not break it. It's all good...and I'm thinking about putting the Christmas lights out this weekend...usually I do it later in NOV when I can barely feel my hands after about an hour...something about putting them up now seems smart...although at least going by the EURO there really aren't any signs about prolonged cold heading our way for the foreseeable future... Let's backtrack...here is a look at the latest surface map...showing the warmith continuing to build towards the S/SW of KC...where highs today surged well into the 70s...with even an 80 showing up in a few places...also look at Denver...last week flights were canceled because of the snow and wind...today they're well into the 70s as well...I'm guessing all that snow is long gone by now... [image]                         this warm bubble can easily been seen aloft as well...notice in the 48 hour NAM forecast how temperatures @ 5K feet are close to 20C/68F... [image] The contours at that level are leanig from the WSW to the ENE...this indicated a pretty dry flow of air at that level...now notice as we finish off the weekend...the adjustment to the way the contours are oriented...in this map more from south to north...and there are somes at least some low level moisture will start moving in from the GoM later in the weekend...how much of this translates into clouds remains to be seen... [image] There is going to be some sort of weak SW wave that gets kicked out by MON...so there is at least a chance there but it doesn't look overly impressive at this point but with dewpoints by then into the 50s...at least the chance is there for a light QPF event...but overall next week as well looks to be seasonal to mild...with NO surge of cold air heading our way...there may be another weak system THU or FRI of next week...there are some interesting things showing up on the day 10 GFS...but I don't really trust much "big picture" stuff past day 5 at this point...The EURO at it's ensembles are pretty mild for mid NOV...so we'll see how things pan out... Onto the tropics where we briefly saw Ida spin up and intenisfy near the coast of Nicaragua yesterday...briefly attain hurricane status and now has started to weaken since it made landfall earlier this AM. Ida will skirt the coastal areas of Honduras at the beginning of the weekend and then potentially come back out in the westerdn Caribbean where the water is warm...and would potentially support intensification... Remember Bill...here is a find for you... [image] This is a radar presentation of Hurricane Bill as an Air Forece Recon flight was checking it our...pretty cool stuff as you can see the flight path in relationship to the eye of the storm...Bill did at one point attain CAT 4 status...I believe by looking at the time staps this woould be 24 hours afterwards when winds were close to 100+. And finally my friend Mark O' Malley from the NWS in Pleaant Hill has puit together an El Nino discussion and it's potential implications for the area winter forecast...take a look. Joe     weather nonadult false September Weather Ahead text blog weather 168 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1461457 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Full-Moon-Names/BLOG/1460243/96364.html My mention of the Full Beaver Moon Tuesday night apparently stirred up some curiosity about where these names come from, and what they mean.  Now, I don't come up with the names, or even determine which one occurs when....I leave that up to the ultimate authority on weather folklore...The Old Farmer's Almanac.  If you want to read more about the Full Moons during the year, and some information about them, take a look at the information they present! I have noticed that there are some discrepencies among the lists you look at, even within the Almanac itself, which does cause a bit of confusion.  One list, for example, has the November Full Moon listed as the Full Hunter's Moon, while another lists it as the Full Beaver Moon. Either way....it's a full moon! As Karli mentioned in her afternoon blog, we're putting together our winter forecast, and will have it ready in the next two weeks. This is going to be an interesting forecast as there is some disagreement among the weather crew about where the winter is heading...so our annual roundtable should be a spirited one this year!  Make a note on your calendar for November 20th, and you can see what we come up with! Have a great Thursday, and enjoy the nice warm air on the way! Mike My mention of the Full Beaver Moon Tuesday night apparently stirred up some curiosity about where these names come from, and what they mean.  Now, I don't come up with the names, or even determine which one occurs when....I leave that up to the ultimate authority on weather folklore...The Old Farmer's Almanac.  If you want to read more about the Full Moons during the year, and some information about them, take a look at the information they present! I have noticed that there are some discrepencies among the lists you look at, even within the Almanac itself, which does cause a bit of confusion.  One list, for example, has the November Full Moon listed as the Full Hunter's Moon, while another lists it as the Full Beaver Moon. Either way....it's a full moon! As Karli mentioned in her afternoon blog, we're putting together our winter forecast, and will have it ready in the next two weeks. This is going to be an interesting forecast as there is some disagreement among the weather crew about where the winter is heading...so our annual roundtable should be a spirited one this year!  Make a note on your calendar for November 20th, and you can see what we come up with! Have a great Thursday, and enjoy the nice warm air on the way! Mike Thu, 05 Nov 2009 05:08:46 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Full-Moon-Names/BLOG/1460243/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-05T05:08:46Z Fox 4 KC Community My mention of the Full Beaver Moon Tuesday night apparently stirred up some curiosity about where these names come from, and what they mean.  Now, I don't come up with the names, or even determine which one occurs when....I leave that up to the ultimate authority on weather folklore...The Old Farmer's Almanac.  If you want to read more about the Full Moons during the year, and some information about them, take a look at the information they present! I have noticed that there are some discrepencies among the lists you look at, even within the Almanac itself, which does cause a bit of confusion.  One list, for example, has the November Full Moon listed as the Full Hunter's Moon, while another lists it as the Full Beaver Moon. Either way....it's a full moon! As Karli mentioned in her afternoon blog, we're putting together our winter forecast, and will have it ready in the next two weeks. This is going to be an interesting forecast as there is some disagreement among the weather crew about where the winter is heading...so our annual roundtable should be a spirited one this year!  Make a note on your calendar for November 20th, and you can see what we come up with! Have a great Thursday, and enjoy the nice warm air on the way! Mike nonadult false Full Moon Names text blog 140 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 1 0 1460243 6902496 Member 0 http://community.fox4kc.com/_Warming-Up/BLOG/1459419/96364.html Good Afternoon Everyone! We've officially turned the corner for the week and for the forecast.  Tonight we'll see the high pressure sliding on top of us which will lead to clear skies, light winds and chilly overnight lows.  Some locations could drop below freezing, for Kansas City I went with a 34 degree low temperature for tonight.  This is the last of the chilly air for a while...as we'll finally see warmer weather back in the forecast starting Friday.  Expect highs around 70 Friday, around 76 Saturday and back to the lower 70s on Sunday.  Dry weather will also remain in the forecast through Sunday...in other words, we are in store for a great weekend!  Highs this weekend will be more typical of late September and early October, not early November, so enjoy it! Next week is when we'll see our rain chances returning.  Monday night into Tuesday morning we'll see the next storm moving through the plains.  The big question right now is if there will be enough moisture in place to get a decent chance for rain.  Right now I'm only holding out for a light rain event at best for Monday  night into early Tuesday.  My forecast today had a 30% chance in for that time frame.  Temperatures will also drop back to the upper 50s and lower 60s (more typical of this time of the year).  This cool down will be short lived though, as it appears we'll warm back up towards the middle of next week! Looking even farther ahead, it looks like the weekend of Nov. 14th we'll see a return to a slightly colder pattern.  Of course that is so far off, I wouldn't worry about it too much...but the mention of colder weather brings me to my next topic for today's blog: Our Winter Weather Forecast. Our annual Winter Roundtable where the four of us sit down and discuss our predictions for the upcoming winter will be November 20th during the evening news.  We'll talk about what we think will be our lowest temperature for the winter season, along with our snowfall predictions.  Keep in mind average snowfall is right around 20 inches for KCI.  Last year we ended up with 14.6" and our coldest low -6.  This year we are going to have to take into account that El Nino is back.  Typically El Nino winters tend to be slightly above average temperature wise and precipitation tends to be slightly below or around average.  Definitely something to think about over the next couple of weeks as we all try to put together our winter forecast!  The National Weather Service also put together there 2009 Winter Outlook, and also talked more in depth about El Nino and it's impact on our winter.  Click here to listen: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/ Switching from winter weather to Tropics (yes, it is still Hurricane Season until November 30th!) we have another Tropical Depression (#11) that is currently off the coast of Nicaragua.  A recon plane is en route to the depression as I type this to see if it has strengthened into Tropical Storm Ida.  You can see the most current info here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml? Have a great day everyone, and enjoy the blue skies! -Karli Good Afternoon Everyone! We've officially turned the corner for the week and for the forecast.  Tonight we'll see the high pressure sliding on top of us which will lead to clear skies, light winds and chilly overnight lows.  Some locations could drop below freezing, for Kansas City I went with a 34 degree low temperature for tonight.  This is the last of the chilly air for a while...as we'll finally see warmer weather back in the forecast starting Friday.  Expect highs around 70 Friday, around 76 Saturday and back to the lower 70s on Sunday.  Dry weather will also remain in the forecast through Sunday...in other words, we are in store for a great weekend!  Highs this weekend will be more typical of late September and early October, not early November, so enjoy it! Next week is when we'll see our rain chances returning.  Monday night into Tuesday morning we'll see the next storm moving through the plains.  The big question right now is if there will be enough moisture in place to get a decent chance for rain.  Right now I'm only holding out for a light rain event at best for Monday  night into early Tuesday.  My forecast today had a 30% chance in for that time frame.  Temperatures will also drop back to the upper 50s and lower 60s (more typical of this time of the year).  This cool down will be short lived though, as it appears we'll warm back up towards the middle of next week! Looking even farther ahead, it looks like the weekend of Nov. 14th we'll see a return to a slightly colder pattern.  Of course that is so far off, I wouldn't worry about it too much...but the mention of colder weather brings me to my next topic for today's blog: Our Winter Weather Forecast. Our annual Winter Roundtable where the four of us sit down and discuss our predictions for the upcoming winter will be November 20th during the evening news.  We'll talk about what we think will be our lowest temperature for the winter season, along with our snowfall predictions.  Keep in mind average snowfall is right around 20 inches for KCI.  Last year we ended up with 14.6" and our coldest low -6.  This year we are going to have to take into account that El Nino is back.  Typically El Nino winters tend to be slightly above average temperature wise and precipitation tends to be slightly below or around average.  Definitely something to think about over the next couple of weeks as we all try to put together our winter forecast!  The National Weather Service also put together there 2009 Winter Outlook, and also talked more in depth about El Nino and it's impact on our winter.  Click here to listen: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/ Switching from winter weather to Tropics (yes, it is still Hurricane Season until November 30th!) we have another Tropical Depression (#11) that is currently off the coast of Nicaragua.  A recon plane is en route to the depression as I type this to see if it has strengthened into Tropical Storm Ida.  You can see the most current info here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml? Have a great day everyone, and enjoy the blue skies! -Karli Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:04:47 GMT http://community.fox4kc.com/_Warming-Up/BLOG/1459419/96364.html fox4weatherteam 2009-11-04T20:04:47Z Weather Fox 4 KC Community Good Afternoon Everyone! We've officially turned the corner for the week and for the forecast.  Tonight we'll see the high pressure sliding on top of us which will lead to clear skies, light winds and chilly overnight lows.  Some locations could drop below freezing, for Kansas City I went with a 34 degree low temperature for tonight.  This is the last of the chilly air for a while...as we'll finally see warmer weather back in the forecast starting Friday.  Expect highs around 70 Friday, around 76 Saturday and back to the lower 70s on Sunday.  Dry weather will also remain in the forecast through Sunday...in other words, we are in store for a great weekend!  Highs this weekend will be more typical of late September and early October, not early November, so enjoy it! Next week is when we'll see our rain chances returning.  Monday night into Tuesday morning we'll see the next storm moving through the plains.  The big question right now is if there will be enough moisture in place to get a decent chance for rain.  Right now I'm only holding out for a light rain event at best for Monday  night into early Tuesday.  My forecast today had a 30% chance in for that time frame.  Temperatures will also drop back to the upper 50s and lower 60s (more typical of this time of the year).  This cool down will be short lived though, as it appears we'll warm back up towards the middle of next week! Looking even farther ahead, it looks like the weekend of Nov. 14th we'll see a return to a slightly colder pattern.  Of course that is so far off, I wouldn't worry about it too much...but the mention of colder weather brings me to my next topic for today's blog: Our Winter Weather Forecast. Our annual Winter Roundtable where the four of us sit down and discuss our predictions for the upcoming winter will be November 20th during the evening news.  We'll talk about what we think will be our lowest temperature for the winter season, along with our snowfall predictions.  Keep in mind average snowfall is right around 20 inches for KCI.  Last year we ended up with 14.6" and our coldest low -6.  This year we are going to have to take into account that El Nino is back.  Typically El Nino winters tend to be slightly above average temperature wise and precipitation tends to be slightly below or around average.  Definitely something to think about over the next couple of weeks as we all try to put together our winter forecast!  The National Weather Service also put together there 2009 Winter Outlook, and also talked more in depth about El Nino and it's impact on our winter.  Click here to listen: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/ Switching from winter weather to Tropics (yes, it is still Hurricane Season until November 30th!) we have another Tropical Depression (#11) that is currently off the coast of Nicaragua.  A recon plane is en route to the depression as I type this to see if it has strengthened into Tropical Storm Ida.  You can see the most current info here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml? Have a great day everyone, and enjoy the blue skies! -Karli weather nonadult false Warming Up! text blog weather 233 0 0.0 http://community.fox4kc.com/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=6902496&as=96364 http://media.kickstatic.com/kickapps/images/96364/photos/PHOTO_4519163_96364_6902496_ap_160X120.jpg false 0 0 1459419 6902496 Member 0