++++++++++++9PM Update+++++++++++++

Well I was pulling for the Saints...so in the few minutes that I watched I'm glad that worked out...and for what little I watched of the game...is it just me or were the commercials "underwhelming"...I saw that Letterman spot on the net a couple of minutes ago...loved that...

We've seen light snow with an occasional uptick all evening long to the N/NE of the metro...and while there is snow in the metro now...accums have been minor at best...there may be a few dusted roads out there...so just heed the conditions...I don't think it'lll be all that bad through tomorrow AM...a few slick spots...maybe...temps should straggle 31-32 all night long with south winds...

I've adjusted down the snow totals a bit...really no surprise from what I was talking about @ 5 tonight...again just not "feeling the love" for this storm/pieces of the storm.

New NAM...shows occasional light snow tomorrow through midday...with perhaps an uptick in the PM with the arctic air moving in...and again with temps near freezing and assuming treated roads...things should be OK for most of the daylight hours...

Watch for the potential of refreezing tomorrow late PM...but as the cold air moves in the pavement will be drying at the same time...so that will be a factor as well...considering the strong winds blowing into the area...

That's it for now...DH will be on @ 4AM just in case tomrorow morning...

jl

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sitting here watching hockey of all things...I enjoy the sport and while I only know a handful of players in the NHL...when you get a close game like this one, and when you realize that how truly hard these guys go at it for minutes at a time, unlike football which requires short bursts of energy, I can't figure out why the TV ratings are always so bad...anyway...if it's a good game it's a great sport to watch in HD and even better to watch in person...it would be the one sport where I'd wait in a long line for a season ticket for, should and NHL team ever come to the Sprint Center...one of these days I need to head to the Independence Center to check out the Mavericks...

OK enough of that...The 12Z suite of data is NOT impressive at all...as a matter of fact...the NAM is showing all sorts of precip issues with the storm itself...I'm not sure I'm buying that...but as I mentioned this AM...temps are going to be near or above freezing for awhile tomorrow...and the rate of snow shouldn't be that hard so there will be a lot of melting going on as the snow falls...much like Friday...unless it pours down snow...the roads may hold up OK...during the daylight hours at least...however it should be noted that tonight there may be some accums out there...so rush hour tomorrow may be slushy...the good news is that the road treatments should be very effective with the "mild" temps...the arctic front should hold off till the middle of tomorrow afternoon...temps may drop from the mid 30s to the to near 10 by midnight tomorrow night/early TUE AM...so assuming things are wet...we may see some glazing/icing occur tomorrow evening...

QPF totals for KCI are in the .15" top .33" range from the NAM to the GFS.

The issues are that despite a decent looking storm...but getting rougher and rougher looking in the near Las Vegas...it's going to continue to weaken and actually shear as it approaches OK/S MO/N AR tomorrow into tomorrow night...this means that the lift generated with it decreases...another very important item is this upper level low dropping southwards from Canada...this will help to stop the northern progression of the precipitation...and may bring in dry air from the west, removing the snow creation nuclei aloft...by lunch tomorrow...especially from I-35 N and NWwards...that too is NOT encouraging...

This AM I talked about accums of around 2-4", especially on grassy areas tomorrow...at this point that's what I'm sticking with. I also mentioned some slightly higher totals down to wards Warsaw-Clinton-Garnet. I'll ride with that idea for now based on the fact that they will be closer to the northern part of our shearing western disturbance.

Again regardless of the snow...much colder air moves in later tomorrow into WED AM.

As far as the maps go...here are the model trends for snowfall from 6Z to 12Z...

Now the specifics...here is the NAM forecast...

Now the GFS forecast...

Finally...here is a video running around the internets from our friends at AccuWeather. It's funny and sad at the same time...and there is some speculation that this may just be a fun video they put together as a blooper. I won't even bother to speculate...let's just say...real or fake...it doesn't fit into our "Calm During The Storm" approach. Hopefully it was just for fun!

Speaking of the big eastern storm...here are the snow totals...sorry the formatting is not great.

...WASHINGTON DC...
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY                  27.5                     
ANACOSTIA 1 S                        21.0                     
WASHINGTON 1 NNE                     20.0                     
WASHINGTON                           18.2                     

...DELAWARE...
WILMINGTON                           26.5                     
BEAR                                 25.8                     
CLAYMONT                             25.2                     
BRIDGEVILLE                          25.0                     
NEWARK                               24.3                     
MILTON                               22.0                     
DOVER                                21.5                     

...MARYLAND...
COLESVILLE                           40.0                     
ELKRIDGE 2 W                         38.3                     
FROSTBURG                            36.0                     
FRIENDSVILLE                         35.5                     
CROFTON 2 NNE                        34.0                     
COLUMBIA 2 N                         33.8                     
LAUREL 3 E                           32.9                     
CLARKSBURG 2 NE                      32.0                     
ECKHART MINES                        32.0                     
HAMPTON 1 W                          31.0                     
HANCOCK 3 ENE                        30.5                     
MONTGOMERY VILLAGE                   30.0                     
GERMANTOWN 2 ESE                     29.5                     
OELLA 1 E                            29.5                     
FREDERICK 1 ESE                      29.0                     
DAMASCUS 2 WSW                       28.0                     
LONACONING                           28.0                     
PIMLICO                              28.0                     
GWYNN OAK 1 S                        26.0                     
COLLEGE PARK 1 NNE                   25.0                     
BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AIRPORT         24.8                     
WESTERNPORT                          24.0                     
ROCKVILLE 1 SSW                      23.5                     
ROYAL OAK                            23.5                     
ANNAPOLIS 1 NW                       21.5                     
ELKTON                               21.0                     
WWB CAMP SPRINGS                     19.5                     

...NEW JERSEY...
NATIONAL PARK                        28.5                     
CHERRY HILL                          27.3                     
SEWELL                               26.4                     
ELDORA                               26.0                     
ESTELL MANOR                         24.0                     
MOUNT LAUREL                         21.5                     
QUINTON                              21.5                     
MANTUA                               20.5                     
SICKLERVILLE                         20.0                     
MOUNT HOLLY NWS                      19.4                     
BEACHWOOD                            19.0                     
NORTH CAPE MAY                       16.8                     
HAMILTON                             15.0                     

...OHIO...
SALEM 1.0 NNE                        17.5                     
WINONA                               17.0                     
EAST LIVERPOOL                       15.0                     
ALCONY                               14.0                     
CLAIBOURNE                           14.0                     
COVINTON                             13.0                     
GREENVILLE                           13.0                     
PHILLIPSBURG                         13.0                     
STREETSBORO 2.1 SSW                  13.0                     
SALEM                                12.5                     
PICKERINGTON 2.7 NNE                 12.0                     
RAVENNA 1.4 ESE                      12.0                     
SPRINGFIELD                          11.0                     
AKRON 3.1 E                           8.0                     
CLEVELAND                             6.0                     

...PENNSYLVANIA...
UPPER STRASBURG                      31.0                     
SOMERSET                             30.0                     
PHILADELPHIA                         28.5                     
JOHNSTOWN                            28.0                     
GLEN ROCK                            27.0                     
PHILADELPHIA INTL AIRPORT            26.7                     
WESTMONT                             26.5                     
ORRTANNA                             26.0                     
MILLERSVILLE                         24.5                     
LEECHBURG                            23.5                     
RAINSBURG 9.0 S                      22.6                     
EAST MCKEESPORT                      22.0                     
FARMINGTON                           21.7                     
YORK SPRINGS                         21.4                     
HOOKSTOWN                            21.0                     
LANCASTER                            21.0                     
MARIETTA                             21.0                     

...VIRGINIA...
HOWELLSVILLE 1 ENE                   37.0                     
LEESBURG                             34.5                     
BLUEMONT 3 SSW                       34.0                     
DULLES INTERNATIONAL                 32.4                     
ARMEL 3 WSW                          31.5                     
WILDE ACRES 1 N                      31.0                     
BERRYVILLE                           30.5                     
BALLSTON 1 SW                        28.0                     
CHANTILLY 2 NE                       28.0                     
GAINESVILL                           27.0                     
STEPHENS CITY 3 NW                   26.0                     
WHITACRE 1 ESE                       25.0                     
MARSHALL                             24.0                     
WINCHESTER 2 S                       24.0                     
ALEXANDRIA 1 SSW                     23.2                     
OPAL                                 23.0                     
ASHBURN 1 NE                         22.1                     
LOCUST GROVE 2 WSW                   20.0                     
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT              17.8                     
FREDERICKSBURG                       14.0                     

...WEST VIRGINIA...
LEHEW 2 WNW                          34.0                     
BAYARD                               33.0                     
ROMNEY 3 E                           33.0                     
SMITH CROSSBOADS 1 W                 33.0                     
MIDDLEWAY                            31.0                     
VANVILLE 1 SSW                       30.0                     
KEYSER 2 SW                          29.2                     
RIDGELEY 1 WSW                       28.3                     
MARTINSBURG 2 E                      27.9                     
BUNKER HILL 1 WNW                    25.0                     
MOUNT STORM                          18.0                     
HIGH VIEW                            17.0                     
MCCOOLE 3 ESE                        16.5                     
ROWLESBURG                           14.0                     
WHITE SULPHUR                        14.0                     
HEADSVILLE                           13.5                     

...INDIANA...
MIXERSVILLE                          10.0                     
NEW WHITELAND                         8.5                     
CARMEL 5 W                            8.0                     
INDIANAPOLIS 5.9 S                    7.5                     
ATLANTA 4 W                           7.0                     
ZIONSVILLE 3.8 N                      6.5                     
NEW SALEM 1.4 SSE                     6.1                     
SPEEDWAY 6 SSW                        6.1                     
NEW CASTLE 4 SSE                      6.0                     
OSGOOD 4.1 NE                         6.0                     
SEYMOUR                               6.0                     

...MISSOURI...
BUNKER 4.4 N                          6.5                     
SALEM 4.3 S                           6.5                     
ROLLA 8.1 S                           5.0                     

...NORTH CAROLINA  ...
BOONE 2.1 N                           8.5                     
BLOWING ROCK 4.4 NE                   7.3                     
MEAT CAMP 2.2 S                       6.0                     
TODD 1.5 E                            5.2                     
ROXBORO                               3.0                     
WALKERTOWN                            3.0            

Next snow chance after this system is Friday...

Joe