++++++++10pm Update++++++++

Both the GFS and the NAM have both come out somewhat wetter...and therefore whiter for MON...also both models suggesting at least part of the area will have a nasty AM rush on MON...

While I think at this point the models might be too wet...especially the GFS...I wanted to alert you to the potential...I will probably be mentioning snowfall accums of 3-6" for the 10PM...up from 2-5" from the 5/9 shows...again just a heads up...

lets see if the modeling trends continue...my feeling is 4-8" would be the hihghest I would go with this scenario...but I won't pull that trigger till tomorrow evening...IF I even need to do it at all.

Now back to the previous blog+++++++++++

Or maybe 2 depending on what happens next Friday...

Good afternoon and thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weather Blog...on another cloudy chilly afternoon here in KC...temps this afternoon, as expected, are struggling with all the cloud cover in place...but we continue to slowly melt away the snow from yesterday...by the way officially we're putting 1.8" of snow into the books from yesterdays weird storm...unofficially totals were in the 7-12" range for a small band to the south of downtown KC...totals in the metro went from near 1" in Independence to almost 12" near Leawood...whatever.

Our next storm will be zipping through the area later tomorrow night into MON AM...this too promises at least some snow...and the modeling has converged into a 3-6" range for the metro mainly accumulating starting MON AM...there are though several complicating factors that may enhance the snow or diminish the snowfall...

Part of the issue is that we're watching two and really things...one the storm itself that will contribute the bulk of the moisture for snowfall...it's now located out towards CA...you can clearly see it here...

The next piece of energy which, in essence will help squeeze and speed up the Pacific storm,  is an Upper Level Low which is currently on the west side of Hudson's Bay, in Canada. This will be dropping southwards and eventually get very close to NW MO by TUE AM...

The last item is ahead of this Canadian Upper Level Low...it's an arctic airmass that should arrive sometime later MON...and while not terrible cold for this time of year in Canada, this airmass will not modify that much and when it blows in you'll notice it in a big way...with falling temps and howling N/NW winds...perhaps approaching 30 MPH...gridded data off the NAM suggests temps dropping from near freezing @ noon on Monday to near 10 with wind chills well below zero by midnight TUE AM...

The end result of all this is trying to figure out how all these ingredients are going to mix together...and how this will affect snowfall amounts...on one hand the colder air plunging in will wring the moisture out of the atmosphere...and start drying out the airmass reducing the potential snowfall...on the other hand IF the arctic air slows down...we'd be in a snow zone for a longer duration...

Then you have the Pacific energy...a farther south track...obviously that means les snow...a bit farther north...and perhaps a stronger storm itself and a slower arrival of the southward moving energy from Canada...gets us more into the snow game...again how all these features come together will go most of the way in determining how much snow we get...

So as far as how the models are trending...take a look...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now you'll need to click on that image to make it larger...basically it shows the data for KCI for the last 2 model runs of the NAM and the GFS...

Here are the more specific maps...first the GFS...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now the NAM....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actually they are in pretty good agreement...

One more complicating thing is that the snow will be a wet, heavy snow at the start...but as the colder air works into the area...the snow ratios will be increasing...meaning it takes less moisture to accumulate more potential snowfall...as a matter of fact towards the end of the storm the ratios increase to 15-20:1...oh and one more thing...there may be melting going on...on the pavement SUN night into MON AM since temps will be near 32 degrees...

Right now...I think the model guidance is doing pretty good...and a 2-5" snow looks likely for most of the area...with a higher snow possible several counties south of KC...you folks in northwest MO may not get a lot out of this...

There also, depending on the set-up and the exact location of the Canadian ULL on TUE may be additional snowfall...if it drops farther west...even some potential accums since the airmass will be so cold...it sure wouldn't take much...but that too is rather iffy at this point...one thing at a time...

On the snow subject...it's fierce back east...as the storm cranks away...some of the higher totals...

Frostburg, MD: 36"

Washington D.C. 20"

Baltimore: 20-26"

3 miles NW Dulles Intn'l: 32"

Atlantic City: 16"

Cherry Hill, NJ: 24"

Philidelphia: 27" (2nd 20"+ storm this winter...that's never happened before)

Keep in mind our record snowfall here in KC is 25" over 2 days in 1912...so in essence some areas there have picked up the equavalent of our record snowfall here in KC...that's pretty impressive...hundreds of thousands are without power...and lots of airports closed...

Waht a winter!

Joe