I'm not going to spend any time talking about the day to day aspect of the forecast aside from saying a great weekend is ahead...with highs in the 70s both SAT and SUN...and the potential for SUN to actually be warmer than tomorrow...although from a wind stand point...tomorrow looks great...SUN will be breezy/windy again...not to the extreme as today...with winds gusting to near 40 MPH, however we may see 30 MPH winds return on SUN...but assuming we can see a lot of sunshine...temps well into the 70s are expected...before a weak, seasonal front slides into the area on MON...dropping up back into the 60s...with somewhat cooler air expected for a day on TUE...and then we'll moderate again...basically there are no significantly cold airmasses heading our way on the model data in our immediate future...

Let's talk about that model data as I have lots of folks asking me about the winter forecast...which btw we'll be airing on NOV 20th...some interesting tidbits for you...1) did you know that so far Eurasia snowcover is ranked 10th in terms of the total...the last time there was more snow was 2006...as a matter of fact here is a look at the top 10 Eurasian OCT snow totals...with our corresponding winter total...

1976    7.30    1  16.1" El Nino Year
2002    3.43    2  9.5"   El Nino Year
1970    3.29    3  20.5" La Nina Year
1971    2.52    4  10.4" Weak La Nina
1968    2.49    5  14.4" 
1972    2.48    6  19.2" Stong El Nino Year
1998    1.85    7  12.9" La Nina Year
1977    1.72    8  16.5" El Nino Year
2006    1.68    9  10.2" El Nino Year
2009    1.43    10  ???  El nino Year

This really doesn't mean a lot to me...what is interesting is that when Eurasia had more snow...9 times previously...only 2 of those times did we have an average winter snow total...7 times were below to well below average...interesting to me...

2) Ensemble data...here is one of the good things about the weather blog...I can get into this and show you exclusive information here as opposed to on the air...

First the standard GFS ensemble forecasts...first for Day 9...

Now for Day 16...

Now for our exclusive EURO ensemble...which unlike the operational EURO is run well past Day 10...

PLEASE click on each graphic and then "View Enlarged Image"...

Why the maps?...what I want to show you is where the real cold air is forecasted to be located...and essentially how little it moves for the 10-16 day period...this is very significant because it would keep the cold air bottled up well towards Asia and Northern extremes of Europe...IF the cold air is there...there is no way it can get to us for the next 15-20 days or so...that's of course assuming these maps are close to correct...but what this does is allow weak seasonal shots of cooler air move through followed by milder pacific air...but with a polar vortex centered over N Russia the weekend before Thanksgiving...the positioning allows mild pacific air to flow eastwards...now the PAC NW may be extremely wet...as well as the NW Territories...but for us this is basically a mild and mostly dry flow...

Obviously this is just an interpretation of the modeling...and said models can't really be trusted past a few days during this time of the year but they have been persistent in this thinking for awhile now...and it's an important part of our evolving weather heading into the next month...something like this typically will last for about 4+ weeks...and at some point in DEC...probably after the first week that cold air may slosh our way...and it may be really cold in the US...but that is PURE speculation on my part...MT and I was looking back @ 2006/07, because I remember doing blogs about something similiar...where I kept maintaining that in most cases IF Canada can't get cold...we can't get that cold. Eventually something similiar broke down and the flood gates opened briefly for some real cold air but it didn't last long...

Does all of this mean anything in the big picture...probably not...but it's fascinating to me...because IF this vortex on the other side of the world turns into something permanant...it spells a harsh winter for sure for Asia...and for us not bad at all...something to think about and monitor for the next several weeks...If I'm displaying similiar maps towards the end of NOV...gulp!

Enjoy the great weather this weekend...

Joe